The New Spain - Areilza's Electoral Reform (1981)

[Lumine]

₁

As Carlos Hugo continues to tour the country,
Areilza throws a curve ball his way...

September 1981

With an utterly unstable government in office,
Areilza attempts to pull off an electoral hail mary pass

CONTEXT: Through the personal intervention of Regent Juan, his personal friend and PP Leader José María de Areilza has become Prime Minister of an extremely unwieldy and tenuous coalition government, grouping together the moderate right (PP), the various centrist groupings (AD) and three moderate nationalist parties (CiU, PNV, and PA) who have proved willing to provide support in return for swift and throrugh implementation of federalism.

Filled with strong personalities and diverse ideological backgrounds (conservatives, liberals, christian democrats, even a few social democrats) the coalition - which has the barest of majorities: two votes - has had a tough go of it, not aided by Areilza's waning energy. But the Prime Minister isn't one to admit defeat. Taking the biggest of risks - one that could even blow up his fragile coalition -, Areilza has decided to pursue electoral reform to ensure Spain has a stable government before the political situation deteriorates even further.

Taking inspiration from the Italian Christian Democrats, Areilza has proposed - to the anger of his nationalist colleagues - expanding the Cortes from 350 to 400 deputies, essentially giving a 50-seat superbonus to the largest party in any given election. In doing so, Areilza has taken a major risk, for it is the Carlists who have outpolled the rest twice now, but he has also tempted the Red Prince Carlos Hugo to carefully ponder on the situation. But can Delilah tempt Samson?

The Dilemma:

Back the Reform: Carlos Hugo, at the risk of angering the minor leftist parties that could be his future partners, decides to go for it in the name of stability. Should Carlism manage to prevail again, this would make a Carlist government far more likely, enabling Carlos Hugo to pursue his hugely transformative agenda for Spain and making it less likely that he'll have to depend on a coalition as unwieldly as that of Areilza.

Oppose the Reform: Though tempted, Carlos Hugo rejects the reform, leaving behind a clearer shot at government in order to deeply wound and embarass Areilza and perhaps force new elections anyway. For should the reform prevail and any other party outpoll the Carlist movement, Carlos Hugo would find himself further apart from power even as the left painfully debates whether to breach the cordon sanitaire for the sake of power.

Two days.
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^{1.) Original Image: Wikimedia Commons.}

[Antonio the Sixth]

I could be in favor of some form of electoral reform, but not a simple majority bonus to the largest party in such a fragmented political system. Maybe add a top-two runoff clause and then we can talk.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Back the Reform

[Lumine]

For God, Fatherland and King,
Our forefathers fought with their lives.
For Fueros, Socialism and Faith,
We will fight with our lives as well!

Thus the "Red Beret" Carlist deputies sang the updated version of the "March of Oriamendi", the Carlist hymn that Carlos Hugo himself had ordered to be changed in recognition of the movement's transition from right wing traditionalism to a mass party of the left. To the very last moment Carlos Hugo agonized on whether to gamble by backing Areilza's reform, with many of his trusted deputies being of the opinion that the party would poll first yet again in the next election and thus go straight to government. The stakes were high, and the temperature in the heated Cortes almost too much to endure.

In the end, the decision came to a simple calculation: could the main opposition party be seen as giving the establishment Prime Minister a win? Perhaps cynically, Carlos Hugo's youngest advisers convinced him this could not be so. A dejected Areilza saw the Cortes strongly rejected his proposals 139 to 211. A bloodbath. The government coalition had splintered, with the moderate nationalist parties turning increasingly sour, and perhaps more worryingly, through a mutiny within the UCD. Adolfo Suárez, plotting his comeback, successfully got the Suaristas to revolt as well, and the already shaky coalition within a coalition threatened to fall apart.

Only six months in, the ball was on the left's court.