Biden takes lead in Economist's polling tracker for first time since September

[wbrocks67]

#Joementum

https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-biden-polls

[kwabbit]

G. Elliot Morris left the Economist and they immediately made a new polling average that is much worse. Last week Morris indicated that his average would be about Trump +2. Maybe that's 1.5 now with the slight improvements in the trackers, but no sophisticated polling average would have Biden up.

Every news outlet wants to have their own polling average but most of them are just doing RCP But Smoothing The Line. That is arguably a worse approach to the polls than the vibes, which might more accurately weight higher-quality pollsters.

[Sir Mohamed]

Good, though it's just 1 pt. 45-44

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't matter the poll MOE is so small with Trump Biden is gonna win anyways

[wbrocks67]

G. Elliot Morris left the Economist and they immediately made a new polling average that is much worse. Last week Morris indicated that his average would be about Trump +2. Maybe that's 1.5 now with the slight improvements in the trackers, but no sophisticated polling average would have Biden up.

Every news outlet wants to have their own polling average but most of them are just doing RCP But Smoothing The Line. That is arguably a worse approach to the polls than the vibes, which might more accurately weight higher-quality pollsters.

Eh, would disagree with this. Trump's lead would fall below a point in the RCP average simply by just taking out Rasmussen and HarrisX (both dubious pollsters with awful marks and track records and ones that I assume don't pass Economist's smell test), so it's not that hard to get a Biden lead depending on what the pollster quality grading scale is and how recent the average is (if they're just going off of the last week, or the last month, etc.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

(Off-topic I know) - I clicked through to their UK tracker from that page, and oof...the Tories are in dire straits.

[Lief 🗽]

SOTU bump truthers on suicide watch

[kwabbit]

G. Elliot Morris left the Economist and they immediately made a new polling average that is much worse. Last week Morris indicated that his average would be about Trump +2. Maybe that's 1.5 now with the slight improvements in the trackers, but no sophisticated polling average would have Biden up.

Every news outlet wants to have their own polling average but most of them are just doing RCP But Smoothing The Line. That is arguably a worse approach to the polls than the vibes, which might more accurately weight higher-quality pollsters.

Eh, would disagree with this. Trump's lead would fall below a point in the RCP average simply by just taking out Rasmussen and HarrisX (both dubious pollsters with awful marks and track records and ones that I assume don't pass Economist's smell test), so it's not that hard to get a Biden lead depending on what the pollster quality grading scale is and how recent the average is (if they're just going off of the last week, or the last month, etc.)

That's my point. A sophisticated polling average will look further back in March and anchor to the high-quality data. When the best pollster has Trump +5 two weeks ago and you also have Fox and WSJ with Trump +2 at the same time, those should be dictating most of the average. The only good poll with Biden leading is Emerson.

A simple average with arbitrary guidelines of when polls are included or dropped is what RCP has and that's why it's bad. When any other outlet does the same, but this time in a way that would produce a Democratic bias when there's not much data, it's also bad.

[GAinDC]

Seems like the polling is settling more closely to the fundamentals

Though I expect a close race, I always felt that many of these polls are way too optimistic for Trump and too negative for Biden.

Even though Trump has turned politics on its head, some things haven't changed: Incumbency is still a big advantage, having a record of policy accomplishments still matters, and one candidate facing endless legal battles does not, in fact, make voters feel better about supporting them.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Gee it’s almost like the thing I’ve been saying, that actually faced between Biden or Trump, voters are going to consolidate around Biden. Most undecideds are leaning Biden, not Trump. His support is maxed out.

[TodayJunior]

The election has been over for some time. Not surprised

[GAinDC]

The election has been over for some time. Not surprised

[TodayJunior]

The election has been over for some time. Not surprised

We always knew Biden was going to win in November based on the current actions being taken on the ground by both sides (ie dems are doing the boring mundane day to day fundamentals; the gop is a joke and tearing itself to shreds at the most important period of time). Polling is beginning to catch up to that reality.

[2016]

We are going to have a re-run of 2020 in more than one way. By the time October arrives it will become apparent that Trump will lose to Biden and that will set off a chain reaction with Voters not voting for Trump but Republican Down Ballot.

Once again it will be a lot of hardship especially in Senate Races for D's accross the Country. Voters I feel will put a check on Biden.

[Duke of York]

We are going to have a re-run of 2020 in more than one way. By the time October arrives it will become apparent that Trump will lose to Biden and that will set off a chain reaction with Voters not voting for Trump but Republican Down Ballot.

Once again it will be a lot of hardship especially in Senate Races for D's accross the Country. Voters I feel will put a check on Biden.

I have doubts. Ticket splitting is becoming less and less of thing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are going to have a re-run of 2020 in more than one way. By the time October arrives it will become apparent that Trump will lose to Biden and that will set off a chain reaction with Voters not voting for Trump but Republican Down Ballot.

Once again it will be a lot of hardship especially in Senate Races for D's accross the Country. Voters I feel will put a check on Biden.

I have doubts. Ticket splitting is becoming less and less of thing.

OH and MT definitely will ticket split it's a question whether TX and FL can do it

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's not time to declare that the election is over, but it is a positive trajectory that certainly will be helped by Biden's cash advantage and validates all of us who said he shouldn't be counted out this early.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map anyways

[7,052,770]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[TodayJunior]

It's not time to declare that the election is over, but it is a positive trajectory that certainly will be helped by Biden's cash advantage and validates all of us who said he shouldn't be counted out this early.

But you said it right here. lol.
And it already is over!