Primaries to watch Tuesday (3/19/24) (IL, OH) (outside of presidential)

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Bost wins. Doubt Israel/Palestine matters much to people in this seat, but given how close it was in a reasonably-evangelical area you have to wonder if that made the difference; Bailey didn't emphasize it but not being pro-Israel is considered a very wacky position within the GOP.

We're still waiting on California, I guess, but of the primaries where Trump either endorsed or had an obvious favorite he won a clean sweep tonight. (Merrin actually beat Riedel quite easily, 52-34; Trump did not endorse but Merrin was very obviously his choice.) Of the open-seat Safe R races, Rulli beat Stoltzfus in OH-6 through a monster personal vote in Youngstown (Stoltzfus won all but two counties in a huge seat, and Stoltzfus's home of Canton cast more votes...but Rulli's neighbors love him 79%-15%, while Stoltzfus was >50% everywhere else, so Rulli wins and it's not even that close), and David Taylor edged out Tim O'Hara 26%-22% in OH-2. Rulli will be a very milquetoast, boring establishment Republican; Taylor promised to join the Freedom Caucus. (Interestingly, his campaign website has a special section about how pro-crypto he is, which is highlighted even above other important issues like 'life', 'economy', and 'Donald Trump').

Hard to pin down how much of a problem Taylor will be -- he'll definitely be in the 50 rightmost members, but I'm not sure if he'll be in the top 20 that stalled the McCarthy speakership election. Rulli will be an extremely forgettable establishment backbencher.

I would say though that Rulli has positioned himself as a Vance ally, and retweets Tucker Carlson and Tulsi Gabbard on twitter a lot.
He also recently made a Facebook post citing Jim Traficant as his political idol.

I think he might be a populist who just isn't the same far-right type as the Freedom Caucus.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

IL-13 R: Loyd

NYT still has IL-12 R uncalled, and I will also leave it uncalled at this time.

[Vosem]

Bost wins. Doubt Israel/Palestine matters much to people in this seat, but given how close it was in a reasonably-evangelical area you have to wonder if that made the difference; Bailey didn't emphasize it but not being pro-Israel is considered a very wacky position within the GOP.

We're still waiting on California, I guess, but of the primaries where Trump either endorsed or had an obvious favorite he won a clean sweep tonight. (Merrin actually beat Riedel quite easily, 52-34; Trump did not endorse but Merrin was very obviously his choice.) Of the open-seat Safe R races, Rulli beat Stoltzfus in OH-6 through a monster personal vote in Youngstown (Stoltzfus won all but two counties in a huge seat, and Stoltzfus's home of Canton cast more votes...but Rulli's neighbors love him 79%-15%, while Stoltzfus was >50% everywhere else, so Rulli wins and it's not even that close), and David Taylor edged out Tim O'Hara 26%-22% in OH-2. Rulli will be a very milquetoast, boring establishment Republican; Taylor promised to join the Freedom Caucus. (Interestingly, his campaign website has a special section about how pro-crypto he is, which is highlighted even above other important issues like 'life', 'economy', and 'Donald Trump').

Hard to pin down how much of a problem Taylor will be -- he'll definitely be in the 50 rightmost members, but I'm not sure if he'll be in the top 20 that stalled the McCarthy speakership election. Rulli will be an extremely forgettable establishment backbencher.

I would say though that Rulli has positioned himself as a Vance ally, and retweets Tucker Carlson and Tulsi Gabbard on twitter a lot.
He also recently made a Facebook post citing Jim Traficant as his political idol.

I think he might be a populist who just isn't the same far-right type as the Freedom Caucus.

Hm, maybe -- I'm going off the most prominently displayed endorsements on their websites, where Stoltzfus is talking up Warren Davidson and Michael Flynn, while Rulli is talking up David Joyce and Jane Timken, who are both relatively normie OHGOP figures. (Stoltzfus's website also has a lot more, eh, populist rhetoric, where Rulli's really doesn't). Just scrolling through their Twitter pages, Stoltzfus has images of him with Jim Jordan and Bernie Moreno, while Rulli is a lot more focused on issues. (But Rulli -- or maybe the person who runs his Twitter, but probably Rulli himself -- seems much more online: where Stoltzfus has pro-Trump content from the past week, Rulli has pro-Milei content and commentary on UK politics, while Stoltzfus's is just less interesting overall.)

This is just a surface-level impression (and campaigns and records in office are often different -- Hawley very much did not run as a populist in 2018!), but Rulli seems not to be trying as hard as Stoltzfus to paint himself as very populist. Fair enough that a more detailed look might imply a different situation.

[2016]

My thought on Ohio Senate
Maybe just maybe Bernie Moreno isn't as weak as many Democrats claim he is. No one expected him to clear 50 % last Night. No Poll had him near that 50 % Mark. Seriously, this was impressive.

[Gass3268]

The IL-12 map is great, love it when we get such a geographical split like that.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

IL-12 R: Bost

[Vosem]

The IL-12 map is great, love it when we get such a geographical split like that.

Have you seen OH-6?! Even cooler, one place in the district just overruled the entire rest of the seat. (And this isn't a case like TX-23, where all of the population is in that one corner: no, one corner just loved its hometown hero so much that they backed him by enough to outvote everyone else.)

(OTOH, don't look at the OH-2 map if you don't want to claw your eyes out. Opposite of an aesthetically pleasing map.)

[Vosem]

Also, legitimately notable Democratic primary outcome:

2020, Bill Foster facing a generic progressive primary challenger: wins 59%-41%
2024, Bill Foster facing a progressive primary challenger upset about Gaza: wins 77%-23%

American support for the Israeli state (which, again, tends to grow during periods of warfare) is really widespread, including on the progressive left, whose support gets basically halved when they talk about the issue.

(Yes, there were other issues involved here -- Rashid had pretty flagrantly carpetbagged in from Virginia, and Democratic primary voters get upset about that kind of thing -- but a lot of them are easy to interpret as being downstream of the Palestinian movement's consistent decades-long failure to meet voters where they're at, or communicate in ways that respect voters' values.)

[Agafin]

My thought on Ohio Senate
Maybe just maybe Bernie Moreno isn't as weak as many Democrats claim he is. No one expected him to clear 50 % last Night. No Poll had him near that 50 % Mark. Seriously, this was impressive.

I agree with this. Ohio is one of the three states in the country that went 2x for Obama and 2x for Trump (the others being Iowa and Florida). I believe in these states, being the Trumpier candidate is actually helpful in the general election since they seem to have uniquely loved Trump more than generic republicans of the past.

[Agafin]

Also, legitimately notable Democratic primary outcome:

2020, Bill Foster facing a generic progressive primary challenger: wins 59%-41%
2024, Bill Foster facing a progressive primary challenger upset about Gaza: wins 77%-23%

American support for the Israeli state (which, again, tends to grow during periods of warfare) is really widespread, including on the progressive left, whose support gets basically halved when they talk about the issue.

(Yes, there were other issues involved here -- Rashid had pretty flagrantly carpetbagged in from Virginia, and Democratic primary voters get upset about that kind of thing -- but a lot of them are easy to interpret as being downstream of the Palestinian movement's consistent decades-long failure to meet voters where they're at, or communicate in ways that respect voters' values.)

It's going to be absolutely fascinating to see how the squad performs in primaries this year. It would be quite ironic if the Israel/Palestine conflict results in less pro-Palestinian lawmakers in congress. People like Bush and Bowman seem particularly vulnerable.