Primaries to watch Tuesday (3/19/24) (IL, OH) (outside of presidential)

[WV222]

IL-4 Dem (Incumbent Chuy Garcia is running for re-election after his failed mayoral run in Chicago. He is in a lot safer position than Shelia Jackson Lee was in Houston (and she got a big win herself). Garcia has the Latino Victory Fund, J Street PAC, Sierra Club, and every major labor union backing him. Opponent Raymond Lopez has the FOP and Chicago Tribune endorsements. Interesting is no elected endorsements coming down here. No polling here.)

IL-7 Dem (Incumbent Danny Davis has drawn multiple opponents after his 52% primary victory last cycle. The left sticks with Kina Collins, Davis' primary opponent the two last cycles. She went from 14% of the vote in 2020 to 45% in 2022. Four aldermen backed her bid as well as some other local officials. Melissa Conyears-Ervin, Chicago's city treasurer, later jumped into the race as a more in-between Collins and Davis candidate. Two aldermen back her as well as the Chicago Teachers Union. Davis called in all endorsers here. Pritzker, Pelosi, Mayor Johnson, and Chicago Tribune all back the incumbent. No polling here.)

IL-11 Dem (Incumbent Bill Foster drew in a progressive challenger in Qasim Rashid. Rashid is also well-known for his media appearances and a Sunday morning SiriusXM show. So, Foster did not get a low-name ID opponent.  I still expect Foster to win with a fundraising advantage, endorsements from almost the entire Illinois Dem delegation, statewide officials (minus Pritzker), unions, and the Tribune. No polling here.)

IL-12 GOP (Incumbent Mike Bost drew in a challenge from the right in Darren Bailey who is looking for a comeback following his 2022 Governor loss to Pritzker. Matt Gaetz and Mary Miller looked to jump-start the challenge but the right hasn't come in to help. Bost has the Trump endorsement, both McCarthy and Johnson backed Bost, AIPAC, NRA, FOP, and the Chicago Tribune as well. One poll in March did show this race as Bost +6 so we will see but Bost has the edge.)

OH-SEN GOP (A mega 3-way to challenge Sherrod Brown in one of the most heated Senate contests of the cycle. Bernie Moreno represents the consensus MAGA pick with the Trump endorsement, Vance, Jordan, Rubio, Cruz etc. State Sen. Matt Dolan once again epresents the moderate wing of the party in the Buckeye State with Mike DeWine, Rob Portman, and the Cleveland Plain-Dealer going with him. Secretary of State Frank LaRose has faded away at the end and now looks like a spoiler player. Dolan and Moreno have been trading polling leads late into the contest. The race has gone negative late after a potential link between Moreno and a adult website was found.)

OH-2 GOP (Brad Wenstrup's open seat. Republican endorsements are split a whole bunch of ways with no real grouping of a moderate or hard-right candidate. Vivek Ramaswamy backs Tim O'Hara, Mike Carey is with Shane Wilkin, Josh Brecheen is with Ron Hood, Adam Kinzinger is hoping the split can power Phil Heimlich over the line. Not to mention Niraj Antani and Larry Kind have raised a load of money without those levels of endorsements. Should be a interesting race in this Safe GOP seat. Winner goes to Washington. No polling here.)

OH-6 GOP (Bill Johnson's open seat. Both a primary for November and the special election in June with Johnson's move to become President of Youngstown State University. It's a battle between state Sen. Michael Rulli and state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus. Rulli has Chamber support and Republican Main Street Partnership PAC money. Neither has pulled away in fundraising. No polling here.)

OH-9 GOP (The race to challenge Marcy Kaptur we thought would have been more interesting if JR Majewski was not forced to drop out following horrible remarks he made about Special Olympics competitors. However, Trump spiced it up, backing state Rep. Derek Marrin, a more hard-right pick in the final day before the primary. He joins Majewski, the Chamber, and Speaker Johnson. Johnson and Trump went against most of the House GOP leadership's preferred candidate in Craig Riedel, who lost to Majewski in the 2022 primary. Emmer, Scalise, Jordan, McCarthy all back him, plus several state Senators and Reps, and Americans for Prosperity. No polling here. Best chance for a Trump-endorsed candidate to lose on this night IMO.)

OH-13 GOP (The race to challenge Emilia Sykes is nowhere as hyped as previous cycles. Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, a Trump loyalist who lost to Sykes in 2022, dropped out to work at the RNC (only to be fired after the recent leadership change). It now comes down to former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin and Hudson, OH city councilor Chris Banweg. Coughlin has the Jordan endorsement here while Banweg has the Vance backing. No polling here. No major fundraising at all.)

[Tekken_Guy]

IL-4 Dem (Incumbent Chuy Garcia is running for re-election after his failed mayoral run in Chicago. He is in a lot safer position than Shelia Jackson Lee was in Houston (and she got a big win herself). Garcia has the Latino Victory Fund, J Street PAC, Sierra Club, and every major labor union backing him. Opponent Raymond Lopez has the FOP and Chicago Tribune endorsements. Interesting is no elected endorsements coming down here. No polling here.)

IL-7 Dem (Incumbent Danny Davis has drawn multiple opponents after his 52% primary victory last cycle. The left sticks with Kina Collins, Davis' primary opponent the two last cycles. She went from 14% of the vote in 2020 to 45% in 2022. Four aldermen backed her bid as well as some other local officials. Melissa Conyears-Ervin, Chicago's city treasurer, later jumped into the race as a more in-between Collins and Davis candidate. Two aldermen back her as well as the Chicago Teachers Union. Davis called in all endorsers here. Pritzker, Pelosi, Mayor Johnson, and Chicago Tribune all back the incumbent. No polling here.)

IL-11 Dem (Incumbent Bill Foster drew in a progressive challenger in Qasim Rashid. Rashid is also well-known for his media appearances and a Sunday morning SiriusXM show. So, Foster did not get a low-name ID opponent.  I still expect Foster to win with a fundraising advantage, endorsements from almost the entire Illinois Dem delegation, statewide officials (minus Pritzker), unions, and the Tribune.)

IL-12 GOP (Incumbent Mike Bost drew in a challenge from the right in Darren Bailey who is looking for a comeback following his 2022 Governor loss to Pritzker. Matt Gaetz and Mary Miller looked to jump-start the challenge but the right hasn't come in to help. Bost has the Trump endorsement, both McCarthy and Johnson backed Bost, AIPAC, NRA, FOP, and the Chicago Tribune as well. One poll in March did show this race as Bost +6 so we will see but Bost has the edge.)

OH-SEN GOP (A mega 3-way to challenge Sherrod Brown in one of the most heated Senate contests of the cycle. Bernie Moreno represents the consensus MAGA pick with the Trump endorsement, Vance, Jordan, Rubio, Cruz etc. State Sen. Matt Dolan once represents the moderate wing of the party in the Buckeye State with Mike Dwine, Rob Portman, and the Cleveland Plain-Dealer going with him. Secretary of State Frank LaRose has faded away at the end and now looks like a spoiler player. Dolan and Moreno have been trading polling leads late into the contest. The race has gone negative late after a potential link between Moreno and a adult website was found.)

OH-2 GOP (Brad Wenstrup's open seat. Republican endorsements are split a whole bunch of ways with no real grouping of a moderate or hard-right candidate. Vivek Ramaswamy backs Tim O'Hara, Mike Carey is with Shane Wilkin, Josh Brecheen is with Ron Hood, Adam Kinzinger is hoping the split can power Phil Heimlich over the line. Not to mention Niraj Antani and Larry Kind have raised a load of money without those levels of endorsements. Should be a interesting race in this Safe GOP seat. Winner goes to Washington. No polling here.)

OH-6 GOP (Bill Johnson's open seat. Both a primary for November and the special election in June with Johnson's move to become President of Youngstown State University. It's a battle between state Sen. Michael Rulli and state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus. Rulli has Chamber support and Republican Main Street Partnership PAC money. Neither has pulled away in fundraising. No polling here.)

OH-9 GOP (The race to challenge Marcy Kaptur we thought would have been more interesting if JR Majewski was not forced to drop out following horrible remarks he made about Special Olympics competitors. However, Trump spiced it up, backing state Rep. Derek Marrin, a more hard-right pick in the final day before the primary. He joins Majewski, the Chamber, and Speaker Johnson. Johnson and Trump went against most of the House GOP leadership's preferred candidate in Craig Riedel, who lost to Majewski in the 2022 primary. Emmer, Scalise, Jordan, McCarthy all back him, plus several state Senators and Reps, and Americans for Prosperity. No polling here. Best chance for a Trump-endorsed candidate to lose on this night IMO.)

OH-13 GOP (The race to challenge Emilia Sykes is nowhere as hyped as previous cycles. Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, a Trump loyalist who lost to Sykes in 2022, dropped out to work at the RNC (only to be fired after the recent leadership change). It now comes down to former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin and Hudson, OH city councilor Chris Banweg. Coughlin has the Jordan endorsement here while Banweg has the Vance backing. No polling here. No major fundraising at all.)

OH-02 seems to be a three way race between O’Hara, Kidd, and Dave Taylor. Niraj is a carpetbagger whose fundraising isn’t on part with the other three. Hood and Heimlich have raised virtually nothing and are not serious contenders IMO.

[ClassicElectionEnthusiast]

I think that of this group, outside of the Senate race the primary that might get the most attention would most likely be the OH-9 GOP primary.

OH-9 GOP (The race to challenge Marcy Kaptur we thought would have been more interesting if JR Majewski was not forced to drop out following horrible remarks he made about Special Olympics competitors. However, Trump spiced it up, backing state Rep. Derek Marrin, a more hard-right pick in the final day before the primary. He joins Majewski, the Chamber, and Speaker Johnson. Johnson and Trump went against most of the House GOP leadership's preferred candidate in Craig Riedel, who lost to Majewski in the 2022 primary. Emmer, Scalise, Jordan, McCarthy all back him, plus several state Senators and Reps, and Americans for Prosperity. No polling here. Best chance for a Trump-endorsed candidate to lose on this night IMO.)

It's interesting that there seems to be a bit of a split in the MAGA wing in this primary (Trump favoring Derek Marrin; while Jim Jordan supported Craig Riedel).

[2016]

CNN, CBS, NBC & ABC will have an Exit Poll for the Ohio Senate Republican Primary tonight!

[Gracile]

I think Davis might have a close call tonight, but I would be mildly surprised if any of the IL congressional incumbents lost.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1770168657798144468

New record for a concession.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1770168657798144468

New record for a concession.

Ohio 2nd District GOP candidate Derek Meyer's Intern Looks for New Internship

[GeorgiaModerate]

Damn, TARDIS missed the target again.

[Vosem]

My own summary of House races. Some overlap with WV222's summary in some places -- this is for my own purposes, so I can look back on which races I thought were significant and which weren't:

Democratic primaries:

IL-6, IL-11: These are two different variants of the same race. In both cases, a relatively centrist Democratic incumbent (Sean Casten and Bill Foster) has a far-left primary challenger, running substantially on Gaza (Mahnoor Ahmad and Qasim Rashid). Both districts are Likely D, but a far-left candidate might lose some support, and Republicans have uncontested primaries for relatively reasonable candidates who wouldn't be competitive against Casten and Foster, but might compete against Ahmad or Rashid (Niki Conforti and Jerry Evans). IL-11 is the one with more attention given to it -- Rashid has had very strong fundraising and Bill Foster has had close shaves against left-wing opponents in the past -- but I wanted to include IL-6 in the write-up since it might be a Republican target on a very good night.

IL-7: Democratic incumbent Danny Davis is 82 years old, and beat younger progressive challenger Kina Collins just 52%-46% in 2022. This year, he has two serious challengers: Collins is up for another try, but Chicago city Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin is also running, and has stolen a great deal of establishment support. MCE has outspent both Davis and Collins significantly, but challenges like this (someone establishment-affiliated running on youth in a predominantly black seat) have gone poorly recently. I don't have a very good feel for this race.

Republican primaries:

CA-20: There is a special election tonight to replace Kevin McCarthy; the favorite, Republican Vince Fong, will win outright if he can cross 50%, which seems unlikely but is possible. If he does not hit 50%, there will be a second round, either against Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux (also a Republican, and running as relatively more populist than the quite connected Fong) or Marissa Wood, the sole Democrat running here. (The November election will be Fong against Boudreaux). Fong has a Trump endorsement, but otherwise Boudreaux is the relatively 'Trumpy' choice.

IL-12: This is probably the highest-profile Republican primary tonight. Republican incumbent Mike Bost has been in the House for 8 years, where he's been pretty unremarkable; he is close to police/fire unions in his seat and was if anything kind of early to the populism wave. Darren Bailey, who was the Republican gubernatorial candidate in 2022, is challenging him on a further-right platform, including being much more fiscally conservative (Bailey's state legislative career was about fighting spending), much more socially conservative (Bailey's gubernatorial campaign was about being pro-life), and relatively heterodox in terms of foreign policy (the campaign has not focused on this but Bailey is really unusually sympathetic to Palestine, in ways you virtually never see in the GOP). Both candidates have spent extensively and the race has gotten pretty negative, but at the end Bost seems to be pulling away, with the one poll showing him up 6 points and Bost securing the Trump endorsement.

IL-14: This primary is to challenge Lauren Underwood, who probably isn't that vulnerable but might be challenged on a very good night. The Republican favorite here, Jim Marter, is probably too far right for the seat (he has endorsements from Mary Miller and various Freedom Caucus types, and has run to the right in past primaries); he has a more normal challenger in Charlie Kim. Marter seems distinctly favored, though.

IL-17: This primary is to challenge Eric Sorensen; Republicans are pretty excited about this seat as a pickup opportunity, since it is trending pretty right (although still Biden+8 in 2020), and Republicans consider Sorensen to be a weak incumbent. Their candidate here is local criminal court judge Joe McGraw, but he is facing a more populist challenger in Scott Crowl. I would be very surprised if McGraw loses, but a poor performance would probably augur poorly for the general.

OH-2: Brad Wenstrup is retiring, leaving behind a safe Republican seat and one of the most chaotic primaries I've ever seen. There are no less than eight serious candidates, but I'd expect the most serious of those are three self-funding businessman (all of whom have spent over $1.5M, while everyone else is under $700K): David Taylor, the Freedom Caucus choice; Larry Kidd, the local establishment choice; and Tim O'Hara, the national GOP/veterans' caucus choice. Five more serious candidates include St. Sen. Niraj Antani, running on being a weird clown; doctor Tom Hwang, running on repealing Obamacare/healthcare issues generally; St. Sen. Shane Wilkin, who is vaguely libertarian and also has a local base in his state Senate seat; Hamilton County official Phil Heimlich, running on RINO-ism; and St. Rep./perennial candidate Ron Hood, running on soconism. The first three seem like the most serious to me but this race is impossible to get a handle on.

OH-6: This primary is to replace Bill Johnson. (Note that it's happening twice; there is a primary tonight for both the special election and the general election). The two serious candidates are St. Sen. Michael Rulli, from the Youngstown area, and St. Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus, from the Canton area. Rulli seems vaguely more 'establishment' and Stoltzfus vaguely more 'populist', but the endorsement pattern is very regionalized; the right way to interpret this race is that Rulli is the Youngstown candidate, Stoltzfus is the Canton candidate, and the part of this seat that's not Youngstown or Canton will determine who wins. (Also, I could be wrong about Stoltzfus -- Canton in general has developed a hyper-Trumpy GOP in the Trump era for reasons unclear to me, so it might just be that being from there has me pegging him wrong). There is no clear favorite between the two.

OH-9: This race, to face Marcy Kaptur in a Trump+3 seat, is probably the most notable Republican House primary in Ohio. The two candidates are fmr. St. Rep. Craig Riedel, who narrowly lost the 2022 primary, and St. Rep. Derek Merrin, who was the official Republican candidate for Speaker of the Ohio House in January 2023 but was surprisingly defeated by a bipartisan coalition. Riedel is to the right of Merrin generally, as he's running with the endorsement of the Freedom Caucus while Merrin is the choice of the both the national and Ohio GOP establishments (Merrin is also more union-friendly), but Riedel has notably been caught on tape saying...uh...hostile but obviously true things about Donald Trump, for which Merrin has criticized him a lot.

Merrin entered the race relatively late and Riedel has spent much more, so Riedel is seen as the favorite here, to the point that Merrin does not have an official endorsement from Trump (...probably because Trump was advised that he would probably lose), but Merrin is obviously the candidate Trump would prefer. (In a weird inversion, he would also clearly be stronger in the general than Riedel, though I don't think Riedel couldn't win or anything). A strong outcome for Merrin might be taken as a sign that voters will punish disloyalty to Trump even without actual comments to that effect from Trump himself; a win for Riedel might make people slightly bolder about critiquing the presumptive nominee.

OH-13: This race is to face Emilia Sykes. The establishment favorite here is 1990s/2000s-era state legislator Kevin Coughlin, who was a rising star back in the day but has been out of politics for a while. Coughlin seems to have drifted right in his time out of office -- he was considered a moderate in the 2000s, but now he's touting lots of backing from social conservatives. He's being challenged by veteran Chris Banweg mostly on what seems like a more moderate, national-leadership-friendly platform...except that Banweg also has an endorsement from J.D. Vance, which he's really playing up. (Seriously, it's weird how much the Vance endorsement doesn't line up with Banweg's other endorsements, or general tone). Anyway, Coughlin is probably favored here but Banweg is definitely serious. I'm not sure what this one means nationally because the fault-line between them is also just very weird.

~~

I didn't realize before writing this that, apart from challenges to incumbents, there really are no contested Democratic primaries tonight; they have no reasonable targets in IL or OH, and no retirements. By contrast there's much more action on the Republican side.

[2016]

We should get some earlish Exit Polls from the Ohio Republican Senate Primary shortly.

[Vosem]

Also, another interesting pattern: in the three competitive Republican primaries tonight where there is an obvious Trump-preferred option (Fong in CA-20, Bost in IL-12, Merrin in OH-9*), there is a challenger to that Trump-preferred option from the right (this is very clearly true of Boudreaux, Bailey, and Riedel, even if they differ from each other in other ways). One of the clearest signs of 'Trump is the establishment now, sorry guys'.

*Fong and Bost are endorsed by Trump. Merrin doesn't have a formal Trump endorsement because he's too likely to lose and our dear leader likes to brag about the percentage of his endorsees who win, but c'mon; very obviously Merrin would get the endorsement if one were issued.

[2016]

Anyone have the early Exit Numbers from the OH GOP Senate Primary?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NYT Pages: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/19/us/elections/results-illinois-primary.html

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

'F' the New York Times
https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/2024/Primaries/Ohio/

[Oryxslayer]

Almost all Early votes in right now but in Ohio:

District 2 R is a mess.

District 6 R: 47% Rulli, 42% Stoltzfus. Same in the Special

District 9 R: 45% Merrin, 40% Riedel

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

First reported results in Illinois.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Very early results show both Bill Foster and Mike Bost winning handily.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Illinois 7th so far
Danny Davis *
DEM   5,493   
53.9%

Kina Collins   DEM   2,168   
21.3%

Melissa Conyears-Ervin   DEM   1,745   
17.1%

Nikhil Bhatia   DEM   545   
5.4%

Kouri Marshall   DEM   234   
2.3%

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Who knows, this could be interesting

Mike Bost *
GOP   7,981   
60.5%

Darren Bailey   GOP   5,206   
39.5%

[Oryxslayer]

The Dem IL primaries don't seem to have proven to be that interesting. Even in Il-07, unless something changes, the results seems to have just been a divide in the anti-Davis vote from last time. Barely any vote in IL-11 compared to the rest, but the direction of travel seems clear.

But on the GOP side...Bost may be in danger. There's a geographic divide seemingly appearing between his old district/Close to St. Louis, and the rural rest. And most of the rural parts are not reporting. 62-38 Bost at the minute.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Mike Bost *
GOP   12,770   
58.1%

Darren Bailey   GOP   9,205   
41.9%

Total
21,975

[Oryxslayer]

Ohio update, now with some E-Day in:

OH-02 R remains messy, but there are now 3 clear frontrunners: Taylor at 25.5%, Kidd at 19.4%, and O'Hara at 19.2. Supposedly about 70% in.

OH-06 is 46% Rulli, 43% Soltzfus.

Oh-09 is 46% Merrin, 41% Riedel.

Coughlin easily won in OH-13 R.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Results may be settling down

Mike Bost *
GOP   16,214   
58.1%

Darren Bailey   GOP   11,715   
41.9%

Total
27,929

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OH:

SEN R: Moreno
OH-4 D: Wilson
OH-5 R: Latta
OH-6 D: Kripchak
OH-7 D: Diemer
OH-8 D: Enoch
OH-8 R: Davidson
OH-9 R: Merrin
OH-10 D: Cox
OH-11 R: Rapoport
OH-13 R: Coughlin
OH-14 R: Joyce
OH-15 D: Miller

Uncalled:

OH-2 R
OH-6 R
IL

[Oryxslayer]

NYT has it at:

53.8 Bost  19,735   

46.2 Bailey 16,918

Its getting spicy