Primaries to watch Tuesday (3/19/24) (IL, OH) (outside of presidential)

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Mike Bost *
GOP   25,494   
54.1%

Darren Bailey   GOP   21,664   
45.9%

Total
47,158

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Even tighter
Mike Bost *
GOP   28,648   
52.9%

Darren Bailey   GOP   25,483   
47.1%

Total
54,131

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If Bailey wins, he'll be the first pro-Palestine GOP rep.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Bailey wins, he'll be the first pro-Palestine GOP rep.

Justin Amash (former GOP rep) is Palestinian-American, I believe.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If Bailey wins, he'll be the first pro-Palestine GOP rep.

Justin Amash (former GOP rep) is Palestinian-American, I believe.

Well he's not currently in Congress.

[Oryxslayer]

Back above 55-45 for Bost, but thats by expending most of the vote in counties he should do good in based on NYT. Bailey's 'side' of the district still has counties that aren't even reporting.

[Tekken_Guy]

Back above 55-45 for Bost, but thats by expending most of the vote in counties he should do good in based on NYT. Bailey's 'side' of the district still has counties that aren't even reporting.

How much does he need to win what’s out by?

[Oryxslayer]

Back above 55-45 for Bost, but thats by expending most of the vote in counties he should do good in based on NYT. Bailey's 'side' of the district still has counties that aren't even reporting.

How much does he need to win what’s out by?

He's winning the eastern counties by 70-30 or more which should be enough...its just how many votes are there is the real question. Currently 6K deficit.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Bost will ultimately pull it out by the skin of his teeth. Not much left though most of it is from Bailey country.

I only see 4-5 GOP reps going down: Boebert, Spartz, Good, maybe Mace, and one surprise one.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

If Bailey wins, he'll be the first pro-Palestine GOP rep.

Justin Amash (former GOP rep) is Palestinian-American, I believe.

I think there were others as well. None of the Arab-American GOP Reps were particularly pro-Palestinian. However, one is (really more anti-Israel) - Thomas Massie. Both he and Bailey have...other motivations for supporting the Palestinians than their welfare, to put it lightly.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OH-2 R: Taylor
IL-1 R: Lewis
IL-4 D: Garcia
IL-6 D: Casten
IL-7 D: Davis
IL-11 D: Foster
IL-11 R: Evans
IL-12 D: Roberts
IL-14 R: Marter
IL-17 R: McGraw
OH-6 R: Rulli

Uncalled:

IL-12 R
IL-13 R

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Estimated 81% of the vote is in.




Mike Bost *
GOP   43,690   
52.2%

Darren Bailey   GOP   39,989   
47.8%

Total
83,679

While the percentages have tightened, Bost seems to have held a fairly steady 3,000-4,000 vote lead.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Updated number, but now only 78% of the estimated vote has been counted.

Mike Bost *
GOP   44,340   
52.3%

Darren Bailey   GOP   40,504   
47.7%

Total
84,844

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

83% estimated vote counted

Down to a 2,000 vote lead.

Mike Bost *
GOP   45,795   
51.2%

Darren Bailey   GOP   43,728   
48.8%

Total
89,523

[Roll Roons]

83% estimated vote counted

Down to a 2,000 vote lead.

Mike Bost *
GOP   45,795   
51.2%

Darren Bailey   GOP   43,728   
48.8%

Total
89,523

NYT currently has six pro-Bailey counties with nothing reporting, while DDHQ has those at over 80-90% in. DDHQ also thinks that decent amounts are still uncounted in St. Clair and Monroe, which are very pro-Bost.

Much closer than it should have been, but I think Mike pulls this one out.

I used to intern for both Kirk and Shimkus so I am very biased towards the old guard IL GOP, but this is better for the country.

[Tekken_Guy]

NYT now has most of Crawford in now.

[Horus]

If Bailey wins, he'll be the first pro-Palestine GOP rep.

Based on the counties that still haven't reported, it looks like Bailey is favored. How will people like Brian Mast and Max Miller react to sharing the ranks with a pro Palestine conservative?

[Roll Roons]

Bost declared victory and Bailey conceded.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Trump endorsement evidently saved Bost.

[Vosem]

Bost wins. Doubt Israel/Palestine matters much to people in this seat, but given how close it was in a reasonably-evangelical area you have to wonder if that made the difference; Bailey didn't emphasize it but not being pro-Israel is considered a very wacky position within the GOP.

We're still waiting on California, I guess, but of the primaries where Trump either endorsed or had an obvious favorite he won a clean sweep tonight. (Merrin actually beat Riedel quite easily, 52-34; Trump did not endorse but Merrin was very obviously his choice.) Of the open-seat Safe R races, Rulli beat Stoltzfus in OH-6 through a monster personal vote in Youngstown (Stoltzfus won all but two counties in a huge seat, and Stoltzfus's home of Canton cast more votes...but Rulli's neighbors love him 79%-15%, while Stoltzfus was >50% everywhere else, so Rulli wins and it's not even that close), and David Taylor edged out Tim O'Hara 26%-22% in OH-2. Rulli will be a very milquetoast, boring establishment Republican; Taylor promised to join the Freedom Caucus. (Interestingly, his campaign website has a special section about how pro-crypto he is, which is highlighted even above other important issues like 'life', 'economy', and 'Donald Trump').

Hard to pin down how much of a problem Taylor will be -- he'll definitely be in the 50 rightmost members, but I'm not sure if he'll be in the top 20 that stalled the McCarthy speakership election. Rulli will be an extremely forgettable establishment backbencher.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Bost wins. Doubt Israel/Palestine matters much to people in this seat, but given how close it was in a reasonably-evangelical area you have to wonder if that made the difference; Bailey didn't emphasize it but not being pro-Israel is considered a very wacky position within the GOP.

We're still waiting on California, I guess, but of the primaries where Trump either endorsed or had an obvious favorite he won a clean sweep tonight. (Merrin actually beat Riedel quite easily, 52-34; Trump did not endorse but Merrin was very obviously his choice.) Of the open-seat Safe R races, Rulli beat Stoltzfus in OH-6 through a monster personal vote in Youngstown (Stoltzfus won all but two counties in a huge seat, and Stoltzfus's home of Canton cast more votes...but Rulli's neighbors love him 79%-15%, while Stoltzfus was >50% everywhere else, so Rulli wins and it's not even that close), and David Taylor edged out Tim O'Hara 26%-22% in OH-2. Rulli will be a very milquetoast, boring establishment Republican; Taylor promised to join the Freedom Caucus. (Interestingly, his campaign website has a special section about how pro-crypto he is, which is highlighted even above other important issues like 'life', 'economy', and 'Donald Trump').

Hard to pin down how much of a problem Taylor will be -- he'll definitely be in the 50 rightmost members, but I'm not sure if he'll be in the top 20 that stalled the McCarthy speakership election. Rulli will be an extremely forgettable establishment backbencher.

Trump endorsed Merrin.

https://twitter.com/GopLucas/status/1770056396114952446?t=5yguAdsjAdSio-xFxK4glQ...

[Tekken_Guy]

Bost wins. Doubt Israel/Palestine matters much to people in this seat, but given how close it was in a reasonably-evangelical area you have to wonder if that made the difference; Bailey didn't emphasize it but not being pro-Israel is considered a very wacky position within the GOP.

We're still waiting on California, I guess, but of the primaries where Trump either endorsed or had an obvious favorite he won a clean sweep tonight. (Merrin actually beat Riedel quite easily, 52-34; Trump did not endorse but Merrin was very obviously his choice.) Of the open-seat Safe R races, Rulli beat Stoltzfus in OH-6 through a monster personal vote in Youngstown (Stoltzfus won all but two counties in a huge seat, and Stoltzfus's home of Canton cast more votes...but Rulli's neighbors love him 79%-15%, while Stoltzfus was >50% everywhere else, so Rulli wins and it's not even that close), and David Taylor edged out Tim O'Hara 26%-22% in OH-2. Rulli will be a very milquetoast, boring establishment Republican; Taylor promised to join the Freedom Caucus. (Interestingly, his campaign website has a special section about how pro-crypto he is, which is highlighted even above other important issues like 'life', 'economy', and 'Donald Trump').

Hard to pin down how much of a problem Taylor will be -- he'll definitely be in the 50 rightmost members, but I'm not sure if he'll be in the top 20 that stalled the McCarthy speakership election. Rulli will be an extremely forgettable establishment backbencher.

Dave Taylor is basically Ohio’s Mike Collins.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Relieved that Rulli won. That Youngstown / eastern Ohio district on paper seems like it would be the perfect place for the craziest MAGA extremist possible to be elected.

Dave Taylor winning isn't great but I doubt he's going to cause too much of a stir.

Surprised Bailey came so close, and can't help but notice that the counties that Bost didn't represent before 2023 don't seem to recognize his name too much. Did Bailey really even have any issue with Bost to run against him, or was it his own ambition and nothing more?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH S Safe D

[Vosem]

Bost wins. Doubt Israel/Palestine matters much to people in this seat, but given how close it was in a reasonably-evangelical area you have to wonder if that made the difference; Bailey didn't emphasize it but not being pro-Israel is considered a very wacky position within the GOP.

We're still waiting on California, I guess, but of the primaries where Trump either endorsed or had an obvious favorite he won a clean sweep tonight. (Merrin actually beat Riedel quite easily, 52-34; Trump did not endorse but Merrin was very obviously his choice.) Of the open-seat Safe R races, Rulli beat Stoltzfus in OH-6 through a monster personal vote in Youngstown (Stoltzfus won all but two counties in a huge seat, and Stoltzfus's home of Canton cast more votes...but Rulli's neighbors love him 79%-15%, while Stoltzfus was >50% everywhere else, so Rulli wins and it's not even that close), and David Taylor edged out Tim O'Hara 26%-22% in OH-2. Rulli will be a very milquetoast, boring establishment Republican; Taylor promised to join the Freedom Caucus. (Interestingly, his campaign website has a special section about how pro-crypto he is, which is highlighted even above other important issues like 'life', 'economy', and 'Donald Trump').

Hard to pin down how much of a problem Taylor will be -- he'll definitely be in the 50 rightmost members, but I'm not sure if he'll be in the top 20 that stalled the McCarthy speakership election. Rulli will be an extremely forgettable establishment backbencher.

Trump endorsed Merrin.

https://twitter.com/GopLucas/status/1770056396114952446?t=5yguAdsjAdSio-xFxK4glQ...

I must've missed it! Merrin was obviously Trump's preferred candidate even before that endorsement, though.