MO-02: Ray Hartmann (D) -- IN!

[MarkD]

If you haven't ever heard of Ray Hartmann, that's probably because you haven't watched TV very much in the St. Louis area.

Hartmann worked as a speechwriter for then-Gov. Kit Bond during the latter's first term as Governor (1973-1977). I've heard him say that, back in those days, he thought Bond was somewhat of a moderate Republican, which was why he - whose politics lean far to the left - was comfortable writing speeches for a Republican. As of 1977, Hartmann founded a weekly tabloid newspaper called The Riverfront Times, and if I remember correctly, served as its Editor-in-Chief for the first several years. "RFT," as it's commonly known, has always hired journalists who lean to the left. Later on, Hartmann appeared pretty much every week on a program - aired on the PBS affiliate station in St. Louis - called "Donnybrook." That program was an obvious copycat of the national PBS program "The McLaughlin Group," except that on "Donnybrook," a lot of the debates were about issues that pertained specifically to the St. Louis region and/or Missouri as a whole. The show debuted on Channel 9, KETC, in January of 1987, with Hartmann one of the original panelists, and he stayed on the show for literally decades. (I haven't watched that show in many years, so I don't know if Hartmann still appears in it.)

Last Friday, he both announced he was running for Congress and filed with the SoS's office. I think it's inevitable he will win the Dem primary hands down.

Gads, he's in his 70s by now, and this is his first effort to run for office?!?

[MarkD]

The only other person who had filled to run for MO-02 as a Democrat has withdrawn, leaving Hartmann unopposed in the primary. John Kiehne ran for state Rep in 2020 (got less than 35%), and then ran for state Senate in 2022 (got barely over 26%), and this year filed for MO-02 on the first day, was unopposed in Dem primary race until Hartmann got in 3/15, and now dropped out 3/22. Two more days - Monday and Tuesday - to see if someone wants to run against Hartmann.

[MarkD]

Someone else did file - on the last day - to run in the Democratic primary against Hartmann: a guy named Chuck Summers. Hartmann will swamp this guy by a huge margin.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is there any outside chance this seat is competitive? Went from Trump + 16.5 to Trump + 7.8, and in 2022 Schmitt only barely carried the seat by 3%. There's a small but realistic chance Biden carries the seat Presidentially in 2024, especially given nearly 50% of the population in the seat has college. However, there def seems to be some downballot lag at play here; Wagner carried the seat by double-digits in 2022. Still, relative to her past performances in a less favorable district, that win is underwhelming, and some of that crossover support could erode if Dems invest seriously here

My rating would probably be likely R.

[Roll Roons]

Is there any outside chance this seat is competitive? Went from Trump + 16.5 to Trump + 7.8, and in 2022 Schmitt only barely carried the seat by 3%. There's a small but realistic chance Biden carries the seat Presidentially in 2024, especially given nearly 50% of the population in the seat has college. However, there def seems to be some downballot lag at play here; Wagner carried the seat by double-digits in 2022. Still, relative to her past performances in a less favorable district, that win is underwhelming, and some of that crossover support could erode since it's now an open seat.

My rating would probably be likely R.

I don't think the seat is competitive this year. Wagner did win by 12 even as Schmitt only won the seat by 3, so clearly she either has some personal crossover appeal, benefits from downballot lag or some of both. Either way, it should be enough to keep her in the clear. But if Trump wins, this seat will be very competitive in 2026.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

sounds like if there's a Dem that could win, it'd be him. Strong local ties and a known, presumably well-trusted name.

[MarkD]

I think the election this year is going to be comparable to the Wagner - VanOstran race 6 years ago or the Wagner - Schupp race 4 years ago. So I predict Wagner will pull it out,  but probably by about 5 points or so.