Biden campaign to expand map with Texas and Florida

[ProudModerate2]

Not a good idea. Biden is not winning Texas or Florida, and he doesn’t need to.

Hopefully Biden doesn’t seriously plan on wasting time campaigning in those states, and this is just something the campaign’s putting out, but that won’t actually amount to anything.

I can agree with this.
But if there is any truth to it, I hope it's just Texas. Because Florida is a lost cause (more now, compared to 2020).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Leaving states with +20 electoral votes on the table is what is dumb. It's not Biden's job to go easy on Trump and take states off the table to make it easier to win. I'll maintain that Texas is winnable due to the potential for heavy trends and with Republicans likely having money trouble it is good to outpace them wherever possible.

Texas is unwinable because of the Border Issue. Voters still preferring Trump over Biden on the Border by nearly 25 Points.

The gains Biden makes in the suburban Counties around the Dallas/Ft. Worth areas he will lose in the Rio Grande Valley.

Biden hasn't gotten over the hump on the Border. It was his Executive Orders in 2021 that has gotten the United States into this migrant mess and Biden will be reminded of it a lot more as it gets closer to Election Day.

How do you close a 650,000 Raw Vote Gap in Texas. Trump will still get over 50 % in the Lone Star State come November.

The Biden Campaign is overextending themselves. All these Ads Biden has run thus far have unfortunately fallen on deaf ears.

Agree Trump is favored in TX right now, but generally suburban TX heavily outvotes the boarder/south TX Counties.



Blue has 3 million. Green nearly 18 million, and the definition of suburban isn't even as generous as it could be. If you look at raw votes, the disparity is worse with Green casting nearly 8 million votes in 2020, to blue not even casting 1 million.

Also the 650k vote deficit isn't that tall of an order if you go County by County. Biden nets 50k votes out of Tarrant. He gets rid of the collective 55k vote Trump net from Collin and Denton. He nets 30k from Williamson, another 10k from Hays, another 70k from Travis, ect. Those are all very doable benchmarks.

I'll see if I can find it but someone made a good table approximating how many votes Dems would need to net out of each County to close the 600k vote defecit.

Biden isn't going to hit the same margins in TX in every single Blue County like he did in 2020. He needs to hit Betos margin from 2018 and even Beto lost by 3.

Let's see if Bidens JA Rating in States like TX or FL improves over time. If it doesn't by Summer and he is still stuck in the high 30ties to low 40ties there is no Point continue to invest in those two States.

Even if Biden does worse in every single blue county here, good chance he does better in every single green county from 2020 (all swung left 2016-->2020), and the Green counties outnumber blue counties in votes 8-1.

Realistically any future Dem victory in TX probably underperforms Beto in RGV and most of rural Texas, but juices up margins in these suburbs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

They're losing states like Michigan and Nevada, yet their talking about Texas? Hah!

I think people overestimate how correlated states are.

For instance in 2012 Pres, NV and WI voted about 20 points to the left of TX

By 2020 Pres, that gap shrunk to just 8 points in Nevada and 6 points in Wisconsin.

It's not impossible to imagine a scenario where TX only votes 2-3 points to the right of Nevada and Wisconsin.

[Mehmentum]

If Biden's money advantage is really that large, then sinking it all into a small number of states could give diminishing returns.  There is some value to put some money into longshot states as a hail mary play.  There's also downballot races to consider.

Texas makes sense because of the favorable trends and the potentially competitive Senate race.  I suppose Florida has a Senate race as well, and Democrats can't afford to ignore even longshot Senate opportunities, but still does seem like a waste unless its a token effort.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Biden's money advantage is really that large, then sinking it all into a small number of states could give diminishing returns.  There is some value to put some money into longshot states as a hail mary play.  There's also downballot races to consider.

Texas makes sense because of the favorable trends and the potentially competitive Senate race.  I suppose Florida has a Senate race as well, and Democrats can't afford to ignore even longshot Senate opportunities, but still does seem like a waste unless its a token effort.

The diminishing returns thing in politics is very real because eventually you start running out of more voters you can realistically get to show up or persuade. You also have to consider both sides will spend heavily in the main swing states, so those diminishing returns will somewhat cnacel out in the end.

Often in safe states when the out party actually invests for once, there are positive tangible results even if they still lose statewide, whereas the correlation between spending adn results in the main swing states in less clear.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah as I think of it more and more he can expand the map and FL is vulnerable because Scott not Rubio is on ballot