Biden campaign to expand map with Texas and Florida

[DrScholl]

Expanding the map to North Carolina was smart, given that he only lost it by 1 in 2020 (which I didn't know).

Expanding it to Florida and Texas is dumb as hell.

The only reason to expand it to Texas & Florida maybe because of the Senate Races otherwise it makes no political sense.

You gotta first secure MN, MI, WI, PA and then when you have a reasonable lead there expand to other States.

The Biden Campaign is stupid as hell.

They have plenty of money to put resources into all those states. It's the Trump campaign that is going to have to be selective about where to compete and considering the state of the RNC finances Minnesota is off the table.

By all means Biden can throw money in Kentucky if he wants too, but he's not going to even reduce the margin.

The article never mentioned Kentucky, but as per usual you lie just like Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If you go by his approvals like 22, 45% its the same 303 map as always been because you grade 45 on a curve and you get 50%, He isn't at 39% because Gas prices are exactly where they were on Nov 22

[TDAS04]

Not a good idea. Biden is not winning Texas or Florida, and he doesn’t need to.

Hopefully Biden doesn’t seriously plan on wasting time campaigning in those states, and this is just something the campaign’s putting out, but that won’t actually amount to anything.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not a good idea. Biden is not winning Texas or Florida, and he doesn’t need to.

Hopefully Biden doesn’t seriously plan on wasting time campaigning in those states, and this is just something the campaign’s putting out, but that won’t actually amount to anything.

Allred can win on a split vote, he isn't Beto but Powell I don't see her beating Scott, FL is just too red

[DrScholl]

Looking more and more like the Hillary Clinton campaign.

It's Trump that is more in that position because of the issue of legal problems, except Trump's are actually real and not speculative.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Leaving states with +20 electoral votes on the table is what is dumb. It's not Biden's job to go easy on Trump and take states off the table to make it easier to win. I'll maintain that Texas is winnable due to the potential for heavy trends and with Republicans likely having money trouble it is good to outpace them wherever possible.

Texas is unwinable because of the Border Issue. Voters still preferring Trump over Biden on the Border by nearly 25 Points.

The gains Biden makes in the suburban Counties around the Dallas/Ft. Worth areas he will lose in the Rio Grande Valley.

Biden hasn't gotten over the hump on the Border. It was his Executive Orders in 2021 that has gotten the United States into this migrant mess and Biden will be reminded of it a lot more as it gets closer to Election Day.

How do you close a 650,000 Raw Vote Gap in Texas. Trump will still get over 50 % in the Lone Star State come November.

The Biden Campaign is overextending themselves. All these Ads Biden has run thus far have unfortunately fallen on deaf ears.

Agree Trump is favored in TX right now, but generally suburban TX heavily outvotes the boarder/south TX Counties.



Blue has 3 million. Green nearly 18 million, and the definition of suburban isn't even as generous as it could be. If you look at raw votes, the disparity is worse with Green casting nearly 8 million votes in 2020, to blue not even casting 1 million.

Also the 650k vote deficit isn't that tall of an order if you go County by County. Biden nets 50k votes out of Tarrant. He gets rid of the collective 55k vote Trump net from Collin and Denton. He nets 30k from Williamson, another 10k from Hays, another 70k from Travis, ect. Those are all very doable benchmarks.

I'll see if I can find it but someone made a good table approximating how many votes Dems would need to net out of each County to close the 600k vote defecit.

[2016]

Leaving states with +20 electoral votes on the table is what is dumb. It's not Biden's job to go easy on Trump and take states off the table to make it easier to win. I'll maintain that Texas is winnable due to the potential for heavy trends and with Republicans likely having money trouble it is good to outpace them wherever possible.

Texas is unwinable because of the Border Issue. Voters still preferring Trump over Biden on the Border by nearly 25 Points.

The gains Biden makes in the suburban Counties around the Dallas/Ft. Worth areas he will lose in the Rio Grande Valley.

Biden hasn't gotten over the hump on the Border. It was his Executive Orders in 2021 that has gotten the United States into this migrant mess and Biden will be reminded of it a lot more as it gets closer to Election Day.

How do you close a 650,000 Raw Vote Gap in Texas. Trump will still get over 50 % in the Lone Star State come November.

The Biden Campaign is overextending themselves. All these Ads Biden has run thus far have unfortunately fallen on deaf ears.

I didn't ask for your opinion. But for one thing the Rio Grande Valley is a fairly small percentage of the statewide vote. If you're so secure that Trump wins you don't need to make a page long post trying to convince me.

Biden's campaign has far more money than Trump's so he's not overextending.

The Biden Campaign sent Obama to Miami the Saturday before the Election in 2020, they sent Kamala Harris to Texas and then Biden made that infamous head fake going into Ohio. How did those 3 States turn out. I knew from the Early Voting out of Miami-Dade that Biden wasn't going to win FL when D's only had 40,000 Raw Ballot lead heading into E-Day.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Waste of money.

Biden actually has money to burn though, and Trump won't.

This is the key point people. I agree, Biden isn't favored to win either TX or FL, but it forces the GOP to spend a lot of money in these states, especially since the ROI for every dollar Dems spend in these states is higher than the GOP, especially TX.

With TX, even if Biden doesn't win the state, building up long term infrastructure to make it a swingy or blue state would be so powerful.

[DrScholl]

Leaving states with +20 electoral votes on the table is what is dumb. It's not Biden's job to go easy on Trump and take states off the table to make it easier to win. I'll maintain that Texas is winnable due to the potential for heavy trends and with Republicans likely having money trouble it is good to outpace them wherever possible.

Texas is unwinable because of the Border Issue. Voters still preferring Trump over Biden on the Border by nearly 25 Points.

The gains Biden makes in the suburban Counties around the Dallas/Ft. Worth areas he will lose in the Rio Grande Valley.

Biden hasn't gotten over the hump on the Border. It was his Executive Orders in 2021 that has gotten the United States into this migrant mess and Biden will be reminded of it a lot more as it gets closer to Election Day.

How do you close a 650,000 Raw Vote Gap in Texas. Trump will still get over 50 % in the Lone Star State come November.

The Biden Campaign is overextending themselves. All these Ads Biden has run thus far have unfortunately fallen on deaf ears.

I didn't ask for your opinion. But for one thing the Rio Grande Valley is a fairly small percentage of the statewide vote. If you're so secure that Trump wins you don't need to make a page long post trying to convince me.

Biden's campaign has far more money than Trump's so he's not overextending.

The Biden Campaign sent Obama to Miami the Saturday before the Election in 2020, they sent Kamala Harris to Texas and then Biden made that infamous head fake going into Ohio. How did those 3 States turn out. I knew from the Early Voting out of Miami-Dade that Biden wasn't going to win FL when D's only had 40,000 Raw Ballot lead heading into E-Day.

And? There is no reason for any of this to upset you. Calm down.

[Tekken_Guy]

If this is an actual attempt to win these states then yeah it’s a waste of money. If it’s a trap to force Trump to divert his attention away from the actual battlegrounds (a la Hogan in the Senate), that’s smart.

If it’s more an effort help out downballot Democrats like the Senate candidates and some house seats, then there may be some potential in both states.

[Bojack Horseman]

Might as well light that money on fire. A better use would be to put it into North Carolina.

[2016]

Leaving states with +20 electoral votes on the table is what is dumb. It's not Biden's job to go easy on Trump and take states off the table to make it easier to win. I'll maintain that Texas is winnable due to the potential for heavy trends and with Republicans likely having money trouble it is good to outpace them wherever possible.

Texas is unwinable because of the Border Issue. Voters still preferring Trump over Biden on the Border by nearly 25 Points.

The gains Biden makes in the suburban Counties around the Dallas/Ft. Worth areas he will lose in the Rio Grande Valley.

Biden hasn't gotten over the hump on the Border. It was his Executive Orders in 2021 that has gotten the United States into this migrant mess and Biden will be reminded of it a lot more as it gets closer to Election Day.

How do you close a 650,000 Raw Vote Gap in Texas. Trump will still get over 50 % in the Lone Star State come November.

The Biden Campaign is overextending themselves. All these Ads Biden has run thus far have unfortunately fallen on deaf ears.

Agree Trump is favored in TX right now, but generally suburban TX heavily outvotes the boarder/south TX Counties.



Blue has 3 million. Green nearly 18 million, and the definition of suburban isn't even as generous as it could be. If you look at raw votes, the disparity is worse with Green casting nearly 8 million votes in 2020, to blue not even casting 1 million.

Also the 650k vote deficit isn't that tall of an order if you go County by County. Biden nets 50k votes out of Tarrant. He gets rid of the collective 55k vote Trump net from Collin and Denton. He nets 30k from Williamson, another 10k from Hays, another 70k from Travis, ect. Those are all very doable benchmarks.

I'll see if I can find it but someone made a good table approximating how many votes Dems would need to net out of each County to close the 600k vote defecit.

Biden isn't going to hit the same margins in TX in every single Blue County like he did in 2020. He needs to hit Betos margin from 2018 and even Beto lost by 3.

Let's see if Bidens JA Rating in States like TX or FL improves over time. If it doesn't by Summer and he is still stuck in the high 30ties to low 40ties there is no Point continue to invest in those two States.

[Tekken_Guy]

Might as well light that money on fire. A better use would be to put it into North Carolina.

It is not lighting money on fire. Spending in TX/FL can still have positive benefits downballot. Trump spending in NY and CA to help out vulnerable House Republicans.

[2016]

Might as well light that money on fire. A better use would be to put it into North Carolina.

It is not lighting money on fire. Spending in TX/FL can still have positive benefits downballot. Trump spending in NY and CA to help out vulnerable House Republicans.

Bidens Unpopularity will leave him with a certain Ceiling I think. Yeah, he may outrun his JA by 3 or 4 Points but not by 8-9 like he would need to, to actually win either TX or FL.

[Tekken_Guy]

Might as well light that money on fire. A better use would be to put it into North Carolina.

It is not lighting money on fire. Spending in TX/FL can still have positive benefits downballot. Trump spending in NY and CA to help out vulnerable House Republicans.

Bidens Unpopularity will leave him with a certain Ceiling I think. Yeah, he may outrun his JA by 3 or 4 Points but not by 8-9 like he would need to, to actually win either TX or FL.

He doesn’t need to win either of those states. But he can force Trump to divert his resources to TX/FL.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Florida is a massive waste.

Texas won't flip, but it may be worth it to help it along to flipping one day.

At least they don't seem to be lighting money on fire in Iowa and Ohio.

In spite of all that, this may confirm that the Biden campaign is seeing these states as more competitive than the public polling indicates.

[2016]

Might as well light that money on fire. A better use would be to put it into North Carolina.

It is not lighting money on fire. Spending in TX/FL can still have positive benefits downballot. Trump spending in NY and CA to help out vulnerable House Republicans.

Bidens Unpopularity will leave him with a certain Ceiling I think. Yeah, he may outrun his JA by 3 or 4 Points but not by 8-9 like he would need to, to actually win either TX or FL.

He doesn’t need to win either of those states. But he can force Trump to divert his resources to TX/FL.

True but I doubt Trump will take the bait. Trumps Campaign Team in 2024 is better compared to these humps like Bill Parscale & Bill Stepien in 2020.

For example Trumps own Internal Numbers have him up between 9-13 in FL from what I have gathered thus far.

[Tekken_Guy]

Might as well light that money on fire. A better use would be to put it into North Carolina.

It is not lighting money on fire. Spending in TX/FL can still have positive benefits downballot. Trump spending in NY and CA to help out vulnerable House Republicans.

Bidens Unpopularity will leave him with a certain Ceiling I think. Yeah, he may outrun his JA by 3 or 4 Points but not by 8-9 like he would need to, to actually win either TX or FL.

He doesn’t need to win either of those states. But he can force Trump to divert his resources to TX/FL.

True but I doubt Trump will take the bait. Trumps Campaign Team in 2024 is better compared to these humps like Bill Parscale & Bill Stepien in 2020.

For example Trumps own Internal Numbers have him up between 9-13 in FL from what I have gathered thus far.

What about helping downballot Democrats out? Is there benefit to Biden spending for that reason?

[2016]

Might as well light that money on fire. A better use would be to put it into North Carolina.

It is not lighting money on fire. Spending in TX/FL can still have positive benefits downballot. Trump spending in NY and CA to help out vulnerable House Republicans.

Bidens Unpopularity will leave him with a certain Ceiling I think. Yeah, he may outrun his JA by 3 or 4 Points but not by 8-9 like he would need to, to actually win either TX or FL.

He doesn’t need to win either of those states. But he can force Trump to divert his resources to TX/FL.

True but I doubt Trump will take the bait. Trumps Campaign Team in 2024 is better compared to these humps like Bill Parscale & Bill Stepien in 2020.

For example Trumps own Internal Numbers have him up between 9-13 in FL from what I have gathered thus far.

What about helping downballot Democrats out? Is there benefit to Biden spending for that reason?

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell couldn't win her own House Race in the Miami Area in 2020 so I have doubts it will help. And Colin Allred will get hammered on the Border by Cruz as he voted against every single Border Measure when Trump was President.

Immigration tops Voter Concerns in TX.

[Woody]

They're losing states like Michigan and Nevada, yet their talking about Texas? Hah!

[oldtimer]

Might as well light that money on fire. A better use would be to put it into North Carolina.

It is not lighting money on fire. Spending in TX/FL can still have positive benefits downballot. Trump spending in NY and CA to help out vulnerable House Republicans.

Bidens Unpopularity will leave him with a certain Ceiling I think. Yeah, he may outrun his JA by 3 or 4 Points but not by 8-9 like he would need to, to actually win either TX or FL.

He doesn’t need to win either of those states. But he can force Trump to divert his resources to TX/FL.

True but I doubt Trump will take the bait. Trumps Campaign Team in 2024 is better compared to these humps like Bill Parscale & Bill Stepien in 2020.

For example Trumps own Internal Numbers have him up between 9-13 in FL from what I have gathered thus far.

I agree that Parscale was crap:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/16/trump-new-mexico-2020-elections-1497451

"campaign manager Brad Parscale to add New Mexico to his “watch list” — a list of nontraditional battleground states, including Maine, Colorado, Minnesota and Virginia"

Not a single state on Parscale's list was within 5 points, Minnesota being the closest at Biden +8. There wasn't even any public polling supporting Parscale's assumptions.

[forza nocta]

Leaving states with +20 electoral votes on the table is what is dumb. It's not Biden's job to go easy on Trump and take states off the table to make it easier to win. I'll maintain that Texas is winnable due to the potential for heavy trends and with Republicans likely having money trouble it is good to outpace them wherever possible.

Texas is unwinable because of the Border Issue. Voters still preferring Trump over Biden on the Border by nearly 25 Points.

The gains Biden makes in the suburban Counties around the Dallas/Ft. Worth areas he will lose in the Rio Grande Valley.

Biden hasn't gotten over the hump on the Border. It was his Executive Orders in 2021 that has gotten the United States into this migrant mess and Biden will be reminded of it a lot more as it gets closer to Election Day.

How do you close a 650,000 Raw Vote Gap in Texas. Trump will still get over 50 % in the Lone Star State come November.

The Biden Campaign is overextending themselves. All these Ads Biden has run thus far have unfortunately fallen on deaf ears.

You guys are overestimating how much people care about the border lol Katie Hobbs won in Arizona in a midterm year with the border being a big issue then too.

[forza nocta]

I think Biden has a realistic chance to win both states this year, so I'm glad to see this. Obviously the key 2020 states come first, but they have enough money to spend a little in these two as well.

[S019]

It is important to have additional paths in case something goes wrong in the Midwest. Expanding into NC, FL, and TX provides some additional paths for Biden in at least a few scenarios.

[DS0816]

They're losing states like Michigan and Nevada, yet their talking about Texas? Hah!

It sounds good.