Nate Silver: democrats are hemorrhaging support with voters of color

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1768677005074006337

Some interesting election data in this article

But I think the we are over-analyzing this too much

With the exception of African Americans, every non white group in American history tends to be heavily Democratic initially, and then become more purple as assimilation occurs.

Here are a list of groups that once were stalwart democrats who are now swing groups or even gop
1) Italians
2) Irish
3) Eastern Europeans

When it comes to Hispanics, I think the Italians are the best analogy. When the Italians first came, they were not considered white. They were tan with slick black hair. Then, the definition of white changed as Italians assimilated

A fourth generation Italian named Anthony scaravelli of New Jersey could be either gop or dem. We simply don’t know

So why assume that someone named Antonio Mendez wont eventually be considered white and purple?

[Redban]

The poll-unskewers won’t be happy to hear this

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

No hard electoral data to back this up though (at least not yet):

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1767228099186585642

[PSOL]

I’ve seen Hispanics either voting republican or sitting out unfairly called moderate by the usual suspects, especially back when the Palestinian protests first started the Democratic contingent tried to divide them from white progressives in having different views.

I think a non-negligible amount of these Hispanic voters used the war to voice inner disappointment at the Democratic Party and more of them have been dissatisfied at the lack of tangible results from the low point of 2020.

[OSR stands with Israel]

No hard electoral data to back this up though (at least not yet):

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1767228099186585642

Yes there is , read the link :

https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-are-hemorrhaging-support

[MR DARK BRANDON]

What’s funny is the guy who created the charts he cites, Adam Carlson repeatedly calls out these narratives (I follow him on twitter, great analyst if anyone is looking for someone)

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I’ve seen Hispanics either voting republican or sitting out unfairly called moderate by the usual suspects, especially back when the Palestinian protests first started the Democratic contingent tried to divide them from white progressives in having different views.

I think a non-negligible amount of these Hispanic voters used the war to voice inner disappointment at the Democratic Party and more of them have been dissatisfied at the lack of tangible results from the low point of 2020.

It's asinine to think that Hispanic right-shifting, which was happening even in 2020, has anything to do with Gaza.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No they aren't theses are polls not votes, I am blk my whole family even in Sac, Chic, LA, Dallas are planning to vote D that's why Cruz is only tied in some polls in TX this isn't 2004

How many times do we have to tell Rs these are polls not voted

[DrScholl]

Nate Silver has been trying to gain approval from Republicans ever since 2016 so he cannot be trusted. 2022 disproved this narrative greatly in terms of actual results. Even in the GOP primary Trump did worst in majority-minority precincts.

The worst part about Nate Silver is he pretended that he was skeptical all along of a red wave even though his forecast had Republicans at 230 seats with a maximum of 246. It's one thing to get something wrong, but it's worse to pretend like you had it right all along.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My thoughts on racial depolarization is it's something that is bound to happen just because of how our society and culture has changed; race is a far less defining aspect on one's identity and opportunities than it was 50 or 100 years ago. Social networks amongst younger people tend to be far more racially integrated for instance. This is also reflected in the data, which suggests younger non-white voters tend to be more open to voting for Rs. Democrats can message and target however they want, but in the long run I believe maintaining their existing margins with non-white voters will be impossible.

Racial depolarization doesn't inherently benefit Rs if Dems are also making gains with white voters as a result, simillar to how Dems making gains with women voters is kind of meaningless if Rs make gains of similar magnitude with men. I'd argue by default, Republicans have to make gains with non-white voters because they're increasingly becoming a larger share of the Country.

Going forwards, I expect polarization will increasingly become along other axes of identity like education, religion, gender, income, ect.

Starr County is a pretty extreme outlier; there is no other County that really shares it's demographic profile, but Trump quadrupling his vote there in one cycle is genuinely impressive and is a theme we also saw in many urban Hispanic and Asian communities from 2016-->2020. Trump tripled his voter share in many parts of the Bronx for instance, but he was also starting from a very low bar.

[wbrocks67]

'Hemorrhaging' is such an overdramatic read of things, even if you're going off of the 2016-2020 swing.  It's wild that Republicans doing the bare minimum and - gasp - actually doing a little better (but still awful) among nonwhite voters is somehow an achievement for them.

Him comparing 2012 results to 2022 NY is just .... so delusional lol

Also, if we're talking about black voters, Democrats *improved* on their margins among that group from 2020 according to the Pew validated survey.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds don't like Trump just like Rs don't like Biden it's only natural for us to react to polls not votes the way we do because Trump an insurrection we get the same spill everyday from Redban because polls are fav Trump. But these are polls not votes. You don't expect us to watch the inauguration if Trump won, do you.

But, as I always said anyone can lose ESPECIALLY if you are scandal like Biden and Trump both are

[ProgressiveModerate]

'Hemorrhaging' is such an overdramatic read of things, even if you're going off of the 2016-2020 swing.  It's wild that Republicans doing the bare minimum and - gasp - actually doing a little better (but still awful) among nonwhite voters is somehow an achievement for them.

Him comparing 2012 results to 2022 NY is just .... so delusional lol

Also, if we're talking about black voters, Democrats *improved* on their margins among that group from 2020 according to the Pew validated survey.

In 2020, there were a lot of communities that swung >20% right because of non-white voters; I wouldn't call that "a little bit better".

Also regardless of what Pew says, precinct results suggest black voters swung modestly right, though I still think many of these survey things overestimate Trump's 2020 performance with black voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't read these silly crosstabs, it's based on assumptions not votes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No hard electoral data to back this up though (at least not yet):

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1767228099186585642

Yes there is , read the link :

https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-are-hemorrhaging-support

You really believe these silly crosstabs they said the same thing about Romney breaking the bli vote Dick Morris in 2012

[kwabbit]

What’s funny is the guy who created the charts he cites, Adam Carlson repeatedly calls out these narratives (I follow him on twitter, great analyst if anyone is looking for someone)

Yeah these polls that have the Latino vote shifting 16 points to the right are totally wrong. That could never happen./s

Like that was a huge non-White shift, pretty well forecasted by polling, that every Dem-aligned prognosticator dismissed.

The Black shifts are more questionable, of course, but the Black vote seems quite likely to shift a significant amount even if polls are overstating Trump. I've seen a chart floating around on twitter that tries to claim that the GOP had 16% Black support in pre-22 polls as a way to disprove the current crosstabs. That seems to be bogus, looking at high-quality pollster crosstabs the estimated GOP vote in 2022 was more like 11%, which is not that off the high single-digits they actually got. The 16% probably comes from excluding some good pollsters and including Trafalgar and Rasmussen. NYT did get 18% but also got much lower in their state polling.

[PSOL]

I’ve seen Hispanics either voting republican or sitting out unfairly called moderate by the usual suspects, especially back when the Palestinian protests first started the Democratic contingent tried to divide them from white progressives in having different views.

I think a non-negligible amount of these Hispanic voters used the war to voice inner disappointment at the Democratic Party and more of them have been dissatisfied at the lack of tangible results from the low point of 2020.

It's asinine to think that Hispanic right-shifting, which was happening even in 2020, has anything to do with Gaza.

Hold on, I didn't read the OP and had OSR accidentally blocked, what I was referring to was approval ratings as a whole.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why do users look at these crosstabs I am blk myself we don't like Trump but if you make over 400 K a yr they love Trump and 1/3 rd 20/50M of us are in poverty more than any ethnic groups now more that Latinx

We are concentrated on blue 50 percentage of us states and 50 are in red states but concentrate along metros not Rural counties that's not hemorrhage

Latinx are 15/50 M that are impoverished

[jojoju1998]

POC, especially immigrants are more socially conservative, more likely to open a small business, and are more focusde on the family.

If the Republicans are smart enough, and drop their racialist bull crap, they could be the dominant party for the next 100 years.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

POC, especially immigrants are more socially conservative, more likely to open a small business, and are more focusde on the family.

If the Republicans are smart enough, and drop their racialist bull crap, they could be the dominant party for the next 100 years.

If Repubs dropped the "cism", then they'll lose a bunch of "economically anxious" *wink wink* White voters and that'll hurt them a lot more than the amount of conservative non-White voters they would gain. So they definitely wouldn't be the "dominant party" for the next century.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is the classic example of something that has been constantly popping up in polling that hasn’t been seen in special elections or primaries. Also turnout has been too high in the primaries and specials to just write them off

[HisGrace]

Hispanics and Asians could be a long term problem for Dems if they treat them the way they treated working class whites. Not in the next few cycles, but down the line as they continue to grow their share of the electorate and these trends possibly continue.

The current white Dem establishment is obsessed with whatever the smallest minority group is and "punching up". That's not a recipe for a winning coalition.

[rc18]

This is the classic example of something that has been constantly popping up in polling that hasn’t been seen in special elections or primaries. Also turnout has been too high in the primaries and specials to just write them off

The problem with this take is that in primaries and specials only a fraction of the total electorate votes, and the fraction that does vote is by nature the most partisan. The turnout in some races may have been high compared to other years, but they still only represent a fraction of the electorate in a general. Partisans might be fired up, but everyone else? We are also talking about effects being seen most strongly in younger voters, a group not exactly noted for showing up in low turnout races.

So IF what the polling is showing is true I would expect it to only show up clearly in high turnout elections, e.g. the presidential election itself.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

If it is real, we'll see it in November. (Ideally, the MNC will conclude their current strategy is working perfectly and conclude that any money that could be spent on minority outreach is better spent on Donald's legal fees.)

[Open Source Intelligence]

One thing to remember is at least with the black vote, even if Trump got only say 20%, that's still a massive improvement over what Republicans normally get.

Blacks in the U.S. are split into 2 groups: Southern blacks that live everywhere in their state (both in cities and in rural areas) and blacks everywhere else in the country (where blacks live only in city metros in large enough numbers). As a percentage of state population and therefore general election electorate, blacks are most important in Southern states. Any broad improvement of say at least 5 points in general black voting numbers for Trump I would think make states like Georgia and North Carolina unwinnable for Biden when you consider how many raw votes swing that would represent and the current voting math for Democrats in these states requires them to currently get 95% of the black vote to barely win the state. Their impact elsewhere would be much smaller.

Hispanics should be likewise split up into their own "Southern blacks" and "blacks everywhere else" groups, although how they should be split up there's not an uncontroversial way to do it. SoCal Latinos are not Texas Latinos who are not Florida Latinos who are not Upper Midwest Latinos. Mexicans and Cubans and Puerto Ricans and Central Americans are not the same people by a longshot. But they are a large voting group that needs to be considered in a number of states.

Asians I think are too small, widely dispersed, and not consolidated (a Vietnamese descendant and a Chinese descendant have completely different points of view politically) to matter taking the demographic to the national presidential election. Removing Hawaii which is a demographic outlier, I think Asians/Pacific Islanders as a group only rise to being important demographically in California, where there's no question what the outcome will be.