2023 county estimates have been released

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Haven't seen them posted.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/population-estimates-more-counties-population-gains-2023.html

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2024/03/florida-and-fast-growing-metros.html

Tables:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2024/population-estimates-components-change-counties-metro-micro-puerto-rico.html

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

TX and FL metro areas are still the biggest magnets for people:

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Myrtle Beach continues to grow wildly

[ottermax]

Really wild to see growth become so concentrated in the South this decade. It makes a lot of sense, but I grew up with the West being the hub for growth.

Obviously in California growth has declined due to space, regulation, zoning, etc. causing high housing costs, but I wonder why growth has slowed down relatively speaking in the West relative to the South even in places like Nevada, Arizona, Idaho, and Utah which have less of a space constraint.

I know cost of living has increased quite a bit, but why is it not as much of a factor in the South (especially looking at Florida which isn't affordable) compared to the Inland West?

[Storr]

I'm glad to see my home-metro of Charlotte in the top 10 for largest gaining regions!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Again, these ACS estimates didn't seem to correct for the errors exposed by the 2020 census. In the 2020 census for instance, NYC was heavily underestimated, but the ACS estimates now suggest that the city has lost nearly 600k people since 2020 which I highly doubt, especially when one considers actually tangible stats like housing occupancy rates and subway ridership stats.

One state that stands out here is Idaho. When you plot it (credit to cinyc), it's borders with WA, OR, and WY stand out. What is going on here; is there actually an allure of conservatives self-sorting into Idaho, or could the metrics they use in Idaho somehow be flawed? Obviously buy Idaho is one of the fastest growing states, just confused as to why the divides with the boarders of other states is so stark.



The big theme in the sunbelt def seems to be continued sprawl of the large metros. In many of these cases, the core county in a metro like Dallas, Travis, Fulton/DeKalb, Fairfax, has underwhelming growth in not ourright shrinking, but the suburban counties around them have seen insane increases. Really wonder how geographically big some of these metros can becomes before they become unsustainable - the srpawl of Atlanta and Dallas are geogrpahically huge these days.

[Storr]

Again, these ACS estimates didn't seem to correct for the errors exposed by the 2020 census. In the 2020 census for instance, NYC was heavily underestimated, but the ACS estimates now suggest that the city has lost nearly 600k people since 2020 which I highly doubt, especially when one considers actually tangible stats like housing occupancy rates and subway ridership stats.

One state that stands out here is Idaho. When you plot it (credit to cinyc), it's borders with WA, OR, and WY stand out. What is going on here; is there actually an allure of conservatives self-sorting into Idaho, or could the metrics they use in Idaho somehow be flawed? Obviously buy Idaho is one of the fastest growing states, just confused as to why the divides with the boarders of other states is so stark.



The big theme in the sunbelt def seems to be continued sprawl of the large metros. In many of these cases, the core county in a metro like Dallas, Travis, Fulton/DeKalb, Fairfax, has underwhelming growth in not ourright shrinking, but the suburban counties around them have seen insane increases. Really wonder how geographically big some of these metros can becomes before they become unsustainable - the srpawl of Atlanta and Dallas are geogrpahically huge these days.

I feel like for a least a few of the sun belt metros, the sprawl will continue until they're megaregions like the Bay Area. The ones that come to mind are San Antonio and Austin, as well as Orlando and Tampa.

The biggest ones, like Dallas/Fort Worth and Atlanta will probably simply continue to grow. There aren't any geographic barriers to hinder further sprawl, like mountains and bodies of water in Los Angeles and the Bay Area. And sun belt state governments are spending ever more on road and highway construction, incentivising more suburban sprawl.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Again, these ACS estimates didn't seem to correct for the errors exposed by the 2020 census. In the 2020 census for instance, NYC was heavily underestimated, but the ACS estimates now suggest that the city has lost nearly 600k people since 2020 which I highly doubt, especially when one considers actually tangible stats like housing occupancy rates and subway ridership stats.

One state that stands out here is Idaho. When you plot it (credit to cinyc), it's borders with WA, OR, and WY stand out. What is going on here; is there actually an allure of conservatives self-sorting into Idaho, or could the metrics they use in Idaho somehow be flawed? Obviously buy Idaho is one of the fastest growing states, just confused as to why the divides with the boarders of other states is so stark.



The big theme in the sunbelt def seems to be continued sprawl of the large metros. In many of these cases, the core county in a metro like Dallas, Travis, Fulton/DeKalb, Fairfax, has underwhelming growth in not ourright shrinking, but the suburban counties around them have seen insane increases. Really wonder how geographically big some of these metros can becomes before they become unsustainable - the srpawl of Atlanta and Dallas are geogrpahically huge these days.

I feel like for a least a few of the sun belt metros, the sprawl will continue until they're megaregions like the Bay Area. The ones that come to mind are San Antonio and Austin, as well as Orlando and Tampa.

The biggest ones, like Dallas/Fort Worth and Atlanta will probably simply continue to grow. There aren't any geographic barriers to hinder further sprawl, like mountains and bodies of water in Los Angeles and the Bay Area. And sun belt state governments are spending ever more on road and highway construction, incentivising more suburban sprawl.

Wouldn’t be surprised if in fifty years the Atlanta-Greenville-Columbia-Charlotte-Raleigh corridor fills in

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

One state that stands out here is Idaho. When you plot it (credit to cinyc), it's borders with WA, OR, and WY stand out. What is going on here; is there actually an allure of conservatives self-sorting into Idaho, or could the metrics they use in Idaho somehow be flawed? Obviously buy Idaho is one of the fastest growing states, just confused as to why the divides with the boarders of other states is so stark.

Within Idaho, a lot of that is just small counties in Boise metro getting a huge exurban boost and growth around CdA/Sandpointe. Some of that is just an artifact from starting from really low baselines.

As far as the borders - it's not as surprising as you'd think. Eastern Washington and Eastern Oregon are not economically vibrant and the only industries there are ag, Nevada is similarly sparse and empty, Utah and WY is rural/exurban rural growth, and Montana is actually showing the same growth as the ID panhandle outside of Missoula (which is too expensive).

[Gass3268]

Good to see the DMV start growing again after the COVID related declines. Seattle and the Twin Cities are growing again too. Looks like we might be heading back to the pre-Covid growth patterns.

[Minnesota Mike]

Good to see the DMV start growing again after the COVID related declines. Seattle and the Twin Cities are growing again too. Looks like we might be heading back to the pre-Covid growth patterns.

San Francisco actually gained a few people over the last year too. The rate of loss in LA county and NYC also slowed and I wouldn't be surprised if they gain people next year. They all have a long way to go to get back up to pre-covid levels but at least some glimmers of hope.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It looks like the Midwest and Northeast are slowly dying.

[Skill and Chance]

Again, these ACS estimates didn't seem to correct for the errors exposed by the 2020 census. In the 2020 census for instance, NYC was heavily underestimated, but the ACS estimates now suggest that the city has lost nearly 600k people since 2020 which I highly doubt, especially when one considers actually tangible stats like housing occupancy rates and subway ridership stats.

One state that stands out here is Idaho. When you plot it (credit to cinyc), it's borders with WA, OR, and WY stand out. What is going on here; is there actually an allure of conservatives self-sorting into Idaho, or could the metrics they use in Idaho somehow be flawed? Obviously buy Idaho is one of the fastest growing states, just confused as to why the divides with the boarders of other states is so stark.



The big theme in the sunbelt def seems to be continued sprawl of the large metros. In many of these cases, the core county in a metro like Dallas, Travis, Fulton/DeKalb, Fairfax, has underwhelming growth in not ourright shrinking, but the suburban counties around them have seen insane increases. Really wonder how geographically big some of these metros can becomes before they become unsustainable - the srpawl of Atlanta and Dallas are geogrpahically huge these days.

I feel like for a least a few of the sun belt metros, the sprawl will continue until they're megaregions like the Bay Area. The ones that come to mind are San Antonio and Austin, as well as Orlando and Tampa.

The biggest ones, like Dallas/Fort Worth and Atlanta will probably simply continue to grow. There aren't any geographic barriers to hinder further sprawl, like mountains and bodies of water in Los Angeles and the Bay Area. And sun belt state governments are spending ever more on road and highway construction, incentivising more suburban sprawl.

Yes, there's absolutely no ecological reason you couldn't grow the Texas Triangle to continuous NE Corridor density.  I think Atlanta eventually runs out of water with NE population density, though, and Florida runs out of dry land quickly.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Again, these ACS estimates didn't seem to correct for the errors exposed by the 2020 census. In the 2020 census for instance, NYC was heavily underestimated, but the ACS estimates now suggest that the city has lost nearly 600k people since 2020 which I highly doubt, especially when one considers actually tangible stats like housing occupancy rates and subway ridership stats.

One state that stands out here is Idaho. When you plot it (credit to cinyc), it's borders with WA, OR, and WY stand out. What is going on here; is there actually an allure of conservatives self-sorting into Idaho, or could the metrics they use in Idaho somehow be flawed? Obviously buy Idaho is one of the fastest growing states, just confused as to why the divides with the boarders of other states is so stark.



The big theme in the sunbelt def seems to be continued sprawl of the large metros. In many of these cases, the core county in a metro like Dallas, Travis, Fulton/DeKalb, Fairfax, has underwhelming growth in not ourright shrinking, but the suburban counties around them have seen insane increases. Really wonder how geographically big some of these metros can becomes before they become unsustainable - the srpawl of Atlanta and Dallas are geogrpahically huge these days.

I feel like for a least a few of the sun belt metros, the sprawl will continue until they're megaregions like the Bay Area. The ones that come to mind are San Antonio and Austin, as well as Orlando and Tampa.

The biggest ones, like Dallas/Fort Worth and Atlanta will probably simply continue to grow. There aren't any geographic barriers to hinder further sprawl, like mountains and bodies of water in Los Angeles and the Bay Area. And sun belt state governments are spending ever more on road and highway construction, incentivising more suburban sprawl.

Yes, there's absolutely no ecological reason you couldn't grow the Texas Triangle to continuous NE Corridor density.  I think Atlanta eventually runs out of water with NE population density, though, and Florida runs out of dry land quickly.

Why would Atlanta run out of water? If Los Angeles exists I’m sure a super dense Georgia-SC-NC corridor could easily develop.

Atlanta gets an average of 50 inches of a rain a year, Austin gets 35 inches per year

[CookieDamage]

Philly seems to still have shrunk, but not as much as it did from 2020 - 21 or 21-22

[LabourJersey]

On the map you can pick out the trend of the rapidly growing Richmond suburbs, especially New Kent County (an exurb county east of Richmond).

There's been a minor trend, accelerated by the pandemic and rise of remote work, of people in NOVA moving to the Richmond area in search of cheaper (and sometimes better) housing. It has gotten to the point where some Richmond natives are getting concerned by transplants.

Personally I wouldn't make that kind of move: I'm very much a Northerner at heart, and Richmond is 100% a bona fide Southern city, as opposed to NOVA which is a borderland between North and South, at least in the young-people neighborhoods.

[Skill and Chance]

On the map you can pick out the trend of the rapidly growing Richmond suburbs, especially New Kent County (an exurb county east of Richmond).

There's been a minor trend, accelerated by the pandemic and rise of remote work, of people in NOVA moving to the Richmond area in search of cheaper (and sometimes better) housing. It has gotten to the point where some Richmond natives are getting concerned by transplants.

Personally I wouldn't make that kind of move: I'm very much a Northerner at heart, and Richmond is 100% a bona fide Southern city, as opposed to NOVA which is a borderland between North and South, at least in the young-people neighborhoods.

Yes, this is notable.  Remote work could legitimately be the reason Dems won the VA legislature in 2023.  However, VA feels Southern faster than you would think.  It's noticeable just 1-2 counties out from DC/Arlington/Alexandria.