2024 County Ratings?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's mine; may adjust closer to the election and tended to ere on the side of caution. Let me know if you spot any obvious errors.

[Tekken_Guy]

Here's mine; may adjust closer to the election and tended to ere on the side of caution. Let me know if you spot any obvious errors.

-Why is Monmouth County, NJ Lean but Hunterdon only Tilt?
-Why is Trump the favorite in Atlantic and Cumberland Counties?
-Why is Trump favored in Pueblo County, CO?
-Why is Erie County, PA Tilt R yet Northampton Lean D?
-Why is Suffolk County lean R yet the other three narrow Trump counties in NY (Orange, Warren, Ontario) all Tilt D?
-Why is Duval at Lean D yet Hillsborough/Osceola/Seminole Tilt?
-Why is Fresno Tilt D?
-Why is Platte County MO more favorable to Dems than Clay?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Snip

-Why is Monmouth County, NJ Lean but Hunterdon only Tilt?
-Why is Trump the favorite in Atlantic and Cumberland Counties?
-Why is Trump favored in Pueblo County, CO?
-Why is Erie County, PA Tilt R yet Northampton Lean D?
-Why is Suffolk County lean R yet the other three narrow Trump counties in NY (Orange, Warren, Ontario) all Tilt D?
-Why is Duval at Lean D yet Hillsborough/Osceola/Seminole Tilt?
-Why is Fresno Tilt D?
-Why is Platte County MO more favorable to Dems than Clay?

For the NYC area counties is cultural self sorting + educational divides; perhaps a bit bold on Atlantic and Cumberland flipping but Trump 2024 is culturally a good fit in a way that's hard to explain

-Erie honestly think is a genuine tossup right now; decided to throw it to Trump because of how narrow Biden's 2020 victory was there and Dems struggle in the recent court race there.

-Duval has less of the "Florida curse" than those other 3; registration and recent election results especially in Hillsboro and Osceola have been rlly bad for Dems but there are some signs of optimism in Duval such as Dems flipping the Jacksonville mayor office by a few points and such.

-Fresno as tilt D because of low educational attainment, Hispanics, and political self-sorting not being that favorable to Dems in that part of the valley.

-Platte was closer in 2020 and has higher educational attainment than Clay. Pretty sure it flips to Biden first.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

A lot of work went into this, well done, ProgMod!

Just a question: what's the rationale for Inyo County tilting Biden instead of snapping back?

[GAinDC]

Wow! Amazing a looks accurate. Great work!

[ProgressiveModerate]

A lot of work went into this, well done, ProgMod!

Just a question: what's the rationale for Inyo County tilting Biden instead of snapping back?

Could realistically go either way; reason I gave it to Biden is because in the context of 2022 CA, Dems did pretty well there; only lost it by 2% for US House. Also demographically seems like an increasingly good place for Dems thanks to liberal transplants.

[Devils30]

I think this would be a Biden win, he holds MI, PA, GA in this scenario and thus can win without NV, AZ, WI.

Grand Traverse flipping blue implies Biden is doing better than 2020 in Kent, Oakland. Even with defections in Dearborn/Arab areas and some college campuses, the math just isn't there for Trump if he's doing worse in places after already losing by 2.8%.

Northampton staying blue implies the WWC swing is minor if anything at all and trends in suburban MI suggest bigger margins for Biden in metro Philly. Again, same math problem for Trump even if he gets 20% in Philly.

GA same deal. Biden winning Fayette implies the entire Atlanta metro is swing left again. There are not enough votes in the black belt to offset another 3-4% leftward Atlanta suburbs swing as Herschel Walker learned.

[seskoog]

Why are DuPage and Kane IL not safe D?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fixed small error and added AK; some of these boroughs have like 2 people so even if it was Biden/Trump + 30, might still only be likely.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why are DuPage and Kane IL not safe D?

DuPage prolly should be safe D now that you mention it forget how blue it is these days.

Kane keeping at likely D out of extreme caution, but def close to safe.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another small update; added stripes to indicate flips from 2020 Pres.

[Malarkey Decider]

As far as Georgia is concerned, I only have a few disagreements:

- Spalding and Paulding Counties should be Safe R. As much as I would love to see them flip, it's just not going to happen. Paulding was Trump+29 in 2020 and Spaulding doesn't have the suburban nature to facilitate a large swing.

- Burke County should probably only be lean R at this point, as Biden only lost it by 2 in 2020. It's the type of place to trend against Democrats this year, so a Republican rating in general does not annoy me. However, it is somewhat inconsistent with the other Black Belt counties you rated Likely R, most of which Trump won by >10 in 2020.

Other than that, I agree with everything.

[RI]

Why do you have Pacific County, WA flipping to Biden?

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

I'd say Pinal County, AZ should be in the safe Trump category if Brevard County, FL is too.

[Francisco]

Collin County is not lean Biden lol

[kwabbit]

What do you have the median PV as? For Delaware County OH, for example, it trended seven points left in 2016-2020 but was still Trump +7. If you think the PV will be Biden +4 it can flip but in a Biden +1 squeaking by scenario it probably comes out to Trump +2.

[ProgressiveModerate]

As far as Georgia is concerned, I only have a few disagreements:

- Spalding and Paulding Counties should be Safe R. As much as I would love to see them flip, it's just not going to happen. Paulding was Trump+29 in 2020 and Spaulding doesn't have the suburban nature to facilitate a large swing.

- Burke County should probably only be lean R at this point, as Biden only lost it by 2 in 2020. It's the type of place to trend against Democrats this year, so a Republican rating in general does not annoy me. However, it is somewhat inconsistent with the other Black Belt counties you rated Likely R, most of which Trump won by >10 in 2020.

Other than that, I agree with everything.

All fair points.

I think the reason I bumped Spalding and Paulding down to likely is because especially in Atlanta, when any community starts seeing any sort of black spillover it spills left, and neither of these counties are that heavily populated to begin with, but now that I think about it black spillover hasn't really reached Spalding yet and Paulding's spillover while on net Dem-friendly isn't just blacks.

Burke I rated as likely R because even though it was close in 2020, the black belt tends to be extremely polarized and inelastic, and the black population share of Burke is declining at a decent pace. Perhaps likely is a bit too harsh though given Trump only carried by 2 as you state. Likely R does cover a broad range though; some of these Trump + 10 black belt counties I rate as likely R are closer to safe or actually have the black population increasing as a % or some other factor.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What do you have the median PV as? For Delaware County OH, for example, it trended seven points left in 2016-2020 but was still Trump +7. If you think the PV will be Biden +4 it can flip but in a Biden +1 squeaking by scenario it probably comes out to Trump +2.

I'm assuming a national environment similar to 2020 right now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Collin County is not lean Biden lol

Was debating it, but ultimately Collin's growth is extremely favorable for Dems and it's also by far the most college educated county in the state with ~60% having higher ed. Biden only lost it by 4% in 2020 and it's leftward shift has generally been pretty consistent over the past 2 decades.

In an election where educational polarization seems like an increasingly important dividing line, Trump will struggle in Collin.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why do you have Pacific County, WA flipping to Biden?

Yeah this was a close one. Ultimately, this seems like a place with an increasing number of Dem-friendly transplants and Murray did pretty well here in 2022 (albeit still lost it by 3). May flip it back to Trump - curious if you have any distinct insights here.

[Francisco]

Collin County is not lean Biden lol

Was debating it, but ultimately Collin's growth is extremely favorable for Dems and it's also by far the most college educated county in the state with ~60% having higher ed. Biden only lost it by 4% in 2020 and it's leftward shift has generally been pretty consistent over the past 2 decades.

In an election where educational polarization seems like an increasingly important dividing line, Trump will struggle in Collin.

Maybe Biden is going to win it, but not by lean margins, is still not there, Biden by 1-2 in best scenario, but I still think Trump is going to win it.

[Crumpets]

All counties on the east slope of the Cascades in Washington State are safe R with the possible exception of Chelan County, although the primary results don't exactly give reason for optimism for Biden there. This area may be surprisingly close for such a rural region, but the floor for Rs is pretty consistently 52%+ (for now).

[ProgressiveModerate]

All counties on the east slope of the Cascades in Washington State are safe R with the possible exception of Chelan County, although the primary results don't exactly give reason for optimism for Biden there. This area may be surprisingly close for such a rural region, but the floor for Rs is pretty consistently 52%+ (for now).

Now that I’m looking at it, may want to swap the ratings of Kittias and Chelan Counties - I think I got confused.

Still leaving the rest at likely R though - the bar for safe is pretty high and they’re close enough where they’re not safe

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

CHS County SC is safe Biden. W was the last Republican to win here and that was 20 years ago.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Collin County is not lean Biden lol

Was debating it, but ultimately Collin's growth is extremely favorable for Dems and it's also by far the most college educated county in the state with ~60% having higher ed. Biden only lost it by 4% in 2020 and it's leftward shift has generally been pretty consistent over the past 2 decades.

In an election where educational polarization seems like an increasingly important dividing line, Trump will struggle in Collin.

Maybe Biden is going to win it, but not by lean margins, is still not there, Biden by 1-2 in best scenario, but I still think Trump is going to win it.

I don’t see why Biden’s best case scenario is maxed out at Biden + 2. This isn’t some extremely polarized southern black county where margin barely swings because of extreme racial polarization. In 3 of the past 4 Pres cycles, Collin has swung over 10 points left; there’s no reason to believe it can’t or won’t happen again.