Why one economist says a US recession is still the most likely outcome

[Woody]

https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-us-economy-job-market-fed-rates-hard-landing-2024-3

Effects on 2024 election?

There's still a big risk of the US economy hitting a recession, Michael R. Strain wrote in Project Syndicate.

"The economic outlook is unusually murky, with different sets of indicators telling different stories," Strain wrote for Project Syndicate on Monday. "Some signs point to the economy being on the verge of cooling rather than running hot. But those indicators also suggest that a hard landing — a recession — is more likely than a soft landing."

There's also consumer spending, a major engine of the US economy, that is beginning to wobble. Retail sales fell in January, down 0.8% from the month before. And credit card delinquencies are on the rise. One top economist, David Rosenberg, has said we already have a "super-duper" credit bubble on our hands.

But a big red flag is consumer sentiment that's in recessionary territory, Strain wrote.

A soft landing is not completely off the table. The Fed could steer the US away from a recession without reheating the economy — but that's if elevated interest rates can tamp down the number of job vacancies in the labor market without destroying actual jobs, he said.

[nerd73]

Publicly doxxing another member of the forum (Riverwalk) is not allowed, and you know that.

[7,052,770]

If they just keep forecasting a recession every year sooner or later they'll happen to be right...

[The Mikado]

If they just keep forecasting a recession every year sooner or later they'll happen to be right...

Predicting 10 out of the last 2 Recessions, as the saying goes.

Anyway, I was totally sure this would be a Riverdale thread but I guess Woody makes sense.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The data from the last few months confirms that a recession before the election is increasingly likely. We have consistently had bad retail sales numbers, higher than expected inflation, and hiring plummeting.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If they just keep forecasting a recession every year sooner or later they'll happen to be right...

If you forecast a recession within 2 years of a yield curve inversion you would have been right every time.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If they just keep forecasting a recession every year sooner or later they'll happen to be right...

That's what about the people who just throw around "bold" predictions. If just 1 is right, you'll be hailed a prophet, but people will of course ignore the other 99 out there predictions there were ignored.

Honestly this sort of happens on Atlas. People who are extremely bullish on one side usually have at least one of two races where they correctly predicted the upset, but the national picture was very off. People who said Trump won win MI/WI/PA aren't that special if they also thought Trump would win VA, CO, NM, NV, ect. Or in 2020 people who predicted GA flipping to Biden but also had him winning OH and IA.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If they just keep forecasting a recession every year sooner or later they'll happen to be right...

That's what about the people who just throw around "bold" predictions. If just 1 is right, you'll be hailed a prophet, but people will of course ignore the other 99 out there predictions there were ignored.

Honestly this sort of happens on Atlas. People who are extremely bullish on one side usually have at least one of two races where they correctly predicted the upset, but the national picture was very off. People who said Trump won win MI/WI/PA aren't that special if they also thought Trump would win VA, CO, NM, NV, ect. Or in 2020 people who predicted GA flipping to Biden but also had him winning OH and IA.

I do not think a prediction is bold if an indicator that has been accurate the last 10 times is flashing red again.

[emailking]

If they just keep forecasting a recession every year sooner or later they'll happen to be right...

That's what about the people who just throw around "bold" predictions. If just 1 is right, you'll be hailed a prophet, but people will of course ignore the other 99 out there predictions there were ignored.

Honestly this sort of happens on Atlas. People who are extremely bullish on one side usually have at least one of two races where they correctly predicted the upset, but the national picture was very off. People who said Trump won win MI/WI/PA aren't that special if they also thought Trump would win VA, CO, NM, NV, ect. Or in 2020 people who predicted GA flipping to Biden but also had him winning OH and IA.

I do not think a prediction is bold if an indicator that has been accurate the last 10 times is flashing red again.

Right, so why is it just you and a few economists saying this, instead of like, all or almost of them. If it's that clear cut, seems like it's something they'd all notice and be  on top of.

[GP270watch]

 The Fed just had their March meeting, they still see inflation trending where they want, still see a strong economy, strong consumer demand, strong labor market, supply chains improving, and reiterated a target of three rate cuts setting the Fed Funds rate somewhere around 4.6% later this year.

 The stock market hit another record high today.

[TodayJunior]

They want to make Trump happen so bad you can taste it.
Fetch is not going to happen.

Biden could have a 15% approval rating and a 2008-style crash, and republicans would still find a way to lose.