The New Spain - 1981 General Election

[Lumine]

OOC: I suddenly remembered about this unfinished project, decided to give it a go again. Thinking of attempting something related to Argentina next given its insane politics.

March 1981

Spain has switched to federalism and kept the monarchy,
But high unemployment and inflation threatens to disrupt everything

CONTEXT: The passage of the 1979 Constitution has committed Spain to federalism, all while the narrowly saved monarchy takes a back seat and the hard-line Francoists have been banned. However, the inability of successive governments to jumpstart the economy has resulted in a grim decade, with unemployment climbing to 25% as inflation keeps rising. Unable to hold the government coalition together any more, new elections have been called before the newly autonomous regions elect their own parliaments in the hopes of defusing tension in the streets.

RULES: Penalties associated with the economic crisis will be distributed among the five government parties (PCE, AD, PP and PSOE), which will bleed a collective and proportional 5% to the largest non government party.

The Parties:

Partido Carlista (PC) - Left-wing, Carlism, Titoism / Shut out of government, the Carlists have gone from failure to failure, culminating in the rival Bourbons being confirmed by the people as the ruling dynasty. The "Red Prince" Carlos Hugo enters the campaign under great pressure from his increasingly anti-establishment grassroots, many of whom are ready to give up on "bourgeois democracy". Thus, the Carlists run as populists, promising hardline Titoism as the response to the economic crisis, championing Catholic social teaching, and pledging to crack down on "moral degeneracy".

Partido Comunista de España (PCE) - Left-wing, Eurocommunism / Backed up against a wall by Carlism, Carrillo has moderated the PCE in his attempts to bring the PC down, finding "Titoist Monarchism" repulsive. Selling himself as a statesman despite his domineering personality, Carrillo aims to lead Eurocommunist into leading the actual government, committed to democratic Marxism, secularization, and an agenda of nationalization and mass public works as the best solution to the crisis. Though cautiously so, Carrillo has not ruled out the prospect of seeking Soviet economic aid.

Partido Popular (PP) - Center-right, Liberal Conservatism / Free from Francoist pressure after the ban on AN18, José María de Areilza has been able to try and present himself as the voice of reason in a fractured political landscape. While still far removed from Thatcher or Reagan, Areilza champions "prudent economic liberalization" to salvage the Spanish economy, running on a platform of support for the Church, free-market economics, entry into NATO, consensus politics, and a stark opposition to populism or "extreme" parties that could endanger democracy.

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) - Left to center-left, Democratic Socialism / Unwilling to give up his dreams of leading the left, González blew up the governing coalition to try and avoid electoral punishment. Determined to prevail, the still youthful socialist leader is running a presidential campaign arguing a "man of character" is needed to push necessary reforms through, taking direct inspiration from the Carnation Revolution in Portugal. Among other issues, González champions mass public investment, reducing working hours, and reducing taxes on the lower class.

Alianza Democrática  (AD) Centrism, big-tent, Christian Democracy / The collapse of UCD and the inability of the Christian Democrats to break through has led both moderate centrist parties into an alliance of convenience for the election, in hopes of making a coalition government more stable and providing a "middle way" between Carrillo's "statism" and Areilza "liberalization". Led by Landelino Lavilla, an opinionated technocrat who broke with Suárez after the Shah-gate, Lavilla champions temperate Keynesianism, support for the Catholic Church, and a strong pro-Europe outlook.

Partido Socialista Popular - Izquierda Republicana (PSP/IR) - Left-wing, Democratic Socialism / By virtue of being untainted by the government (like PCE and PSOE) or the failure of their claimant (like the Carlist), the PSP-IR alliance still led by the intellectual Professor Tierno-Galván senses that the time is right for a shamelessly Republican and left-wing force, asserting that the death of the potentially revolution after the coup was a "stitch-up" and a "betrayal" by the establishment. While just as committed to nationalization as the PCE and PC, Tierno-Galván seeks to exploit his unabashedly socially liberal stances to appeal to the youth.

Three days.

[PPT Spiral]

Most delighted to see this series back. Carlism is the only way!

[wnwnwn]

AD agaisnt the PP.

I'm surprised of the little support for the PSOE, as the socdem party it is.

[S019]

PP for Atlanticism and liberalism!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

PC

[Goldwater]

PP

[Antonio the Sixth]

PSOE. Gotta have a left-wing party that can actually govern.

[RGM2609]

PCE has sacrificed so much for Spain.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The shining light of Carlism is the only way forward.

[Lumine]

Nationalist Andalusians celebrate entering Parliament,
Wikimedia Commons

1981 General Election

As Areilza and the moderate nationalists both surge,
Suárez's electoral system utterly collapses into chaos

Party		Votes	Seats
PP (Areilza)		20.2%	99 (+51)
PC (Borbón-Parma)		21.5%	88 (-6)
AD (Lavilla)		13.7%	48 (+11)
PSOE (González)		13.7%	39 (+9)
PSP-IR (Tierno-Galván)		9.8%	16 (+9)
PCE (Carrillo)		9.1%	25 (-58)
Nationalists		9.5%	35 (+13)
Others		2.5%	0

With nine main national parties having contested the 1979 Election, many experts breathed a sigh of relief as several threatened splinter movements failed to materialize, resulting in a six-party battle that, many felt, had the potential to stabilize parliament and deliver, if not a majority for any party, a sufficiently strong mandate for a coalition government. Or, as Professor Tierno-Galván put it: "I hope for any results that's not yet another General being appointed." Such hopes were soon dashed. The campaign, this time devoid of any dramatic events like the epic collapse of Suárez and UCD in 79', soon devolved into a bloody and bitter stalemate as the jobless kept organizing marches on the capital and other major urban centers.

Though no man dared speak of yet another civil war, many on the left felt the pre-revolutionary situation that General Gutierrez Mellado had averted was back on the menu. The Red Prince thundered from his rural strongholds, demanding a "peaceful, democratic revolution" to deliver Spain back to the people. Carrillo, Tierno-Galván and González fought bitterly for the leadership of the "true socialist" cause, even at the cost of weakening each other against hungry rivals. The Alianza Democrática, a coalition with too many generals, threatened to shatter whilst Landelino Lavilla bored audiences with talk of sensible government. And Areilza, the last hope of the Spanish business community, was both visibly old (71 already) and under growing pressure from a furious right who wanted "red" heads to roll.

Twas' a most depressing campaign, and one that resulted in turnout substantially dropping once again. It really did seem as if, five years in, the return of democracy had failed to solve the real problems for the Spanish people. As the ballots were counted and seats allocated, a process that took weeks, it soon became clear that the Spanish electoral system had been broken beyond repair. Suárez himself had designed it on the heyday of the UCD, intended to reward the largest party and realistically sustain three to four major parties tops. And when the largest party failed to clear even 22%, the seat allocation broke for good. On election night, an embittered Carlos-Hugo saw the Carlist Party win yet again despite a loss of 2%... only for Areilza's PP to surpass the Carlists by virtue of their more efficient vote allocation.

Indeed, the big story of the night had been Areilza's seeming ressuciation of the Spanish right... with a positively anemic 21%, barely complemented on the center with Lavilla's underwhelming yet acceptable 13%. The other main story was the steady rise of nationalist and autonomist parties under the new federal framework, with the moderate CiU, PNV and PA scoring major wins in the Basque Country, Catalonia and Andalusia. On the left, González won the long awaited duel against his erstwhile rivals, but even this victory paled against even the disappointing results of 77'. Tierno-Galván rode a wave of support from the youth to almost duplicating his share, and Santiago Carrillo, who had played such a prominent role in the Transition, saw his heart broken by the undeniable collapse of the PCE. Voters, it seemed, had tired of compromises, and soon his rivals called for his political head.

This time, Regent Juan decided to aggressively tip the scales, keen to prevent the ambitious González from breaching Carrillo's cordon sanitaire around the Carlist movement. By the barest of margins and through countless shabby deals in the dark, a non-left wing majority was found.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

This looks to be a stable and pleasant government in the making