WMNF Radio/St. Pete Polls: Trump +6 in Florida

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

We asked Florida voters “If the General Election for President of the United States were held today, and the candidates were Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who would you vote for?”

More Florida voters said they planned to vote for Trump (47.5%) than for Biden (41.6%), which is outside this poll’s margin of error (2.2%).

5.7% of Floridians said they planned to vote for someone else, while 5.2% are undecided.

The methods of this WMNF News poll:

WMNF News commissioned St. Pete Polls to survey Floridians. Pollsters used the registered voter lists supplied by the State of Florida as of February 6, 2024. Only voters who said they were planning to vote in the November general election were included. We surveyed 1,963 likely Florida general election voters from March 11-13, 2024. The sample of voters that were contacted included random samples of registered voters in Florida. The results have a 2.2% margin of error at a 95% confidence level

The poll was a combination of an automated phone call polling system and a manual P2P SMS polling system. The results were then weighted to account for proportional differences between the respondents’ demographics and the demographics of the active voter population for the state of Florida. The weighting demographics used were: political party, race, age, gender and media market. 80% of respondents were via phone call and 20% were via SMS texting.

https://www.wmnf.org/wmnf-news-poll-trump-leads-biden-in-florida-even-among-18-29-year-olds/

[Tekken_Guy]

Pretty underwhelming result for Trump in Florida.

[President Johnson]

Pretty underwhelming result for Trump in Florida.

More likely is that polls, and Florida polls in particular, are trash. I mean, in some polls he's doing better in Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Pretty underwhelming result for Trump in Florida.

There's another poll today, Bigdata, which has Trump +14.

Trump +10 on average with this one. That's a significant improvement for him from 2020.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Pretty underwhelming result for Trump in Florida.

Double digit Florida was never going to happen. The state has a sizeable white liberal and black population which prevents such a feat from happening. DeSantis and Rubio were far more popular than Trump against weak opponents. Florida is going to be much closer than most people here anticipate. A Trump+5 win while he wins the electoral college is quite possible as well. The state has isolated trends relative to the rest of the nation.

[Roll Roons]

Pretty underwhelming result for Trump in Florida.

I’m pretty sure St. Pete consistently overestimated Biden in 2020, so I would think Trump wins by at least 3-4 more than this.

[2016]

Pretty underwhelming result for Trump in Florida.

Double digit Florida was never going to happen. The state has a sizeable white liberal and black population which prevents such a feat from happening. DeSantis and Rubio were far more popular than Trump against weak opponents. Florida is going to be much closer than most people here anticipate. A Trump+5 win while he wins the electoral college is quite possible as well. The state has isolated trends relative to the rest of the nation.

Roll Roons is right though. St. Pete Polls had a Poll out a week before the 2020 Election showing Biden carrying Pinellas County by Double Digits. Actual Result was a 49-49 Tie.

[2016]

Pretty underwhelming result for Trump in Florida.

I’m pretty sure St. Pete consistently overestimated Biden in 2020, so I would think Trump wins by at least 3-4 more than this.

You are correct. The most ridiculous & hilarous Poll was that they told everyone Biden would carry Pinellas County by Double Digits and it ended up in a Tie.

Also, they are using a 2020 Model in their Poll. Full Stop here! Trump is up by 9-12 right now.

[Tekken_Guy]

Pretty underwhelming result for Trump in Florida.

Double digit Florida was never going to happen. The state has a sizeable white liberal and black population which prevents such a feat from happening. DeSantis and Rubio were far more popular than Trump against weak opponents. Florida is going to be much closer than most people here anticipate. A Trump+5 win while he wins the electoral college is quite possible as well. The state has isolated trends relative to the rest of the nation.

Roll Roons is right though. St. Pete Polls had a Poll out a week before the 2020 Election showing Biden carrying Pinellas County by Double Digits. Actual Result was a 49-49 Tie.

How likely do you think double digit Florida is?

[Eraserhead]

Fool's gold for Democrats. Biden better not waste money here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good poll

[2016]

Pretty underwhelming result for Trump in Florida.

Double digit Florida was never going to happen. The state has a sizeable white liberal and black population which prevents such a feat from happening. DeSantis and Rubio were far more popular than Trump against weak opponents. Florida is going to be much closer than most people here anticipate. A Trump+5 win while he wins the electoral college is quite possible as well. The state has isolated trends relative to the rest of the nation.

Roll Roons is right though. St. Pete Polls had a Poll out a week before the 2020 Election showing Biden carrying Pinellas County by Double Digits. Actual Result was a 49-49 Tie.

How likely do you think double digit Florida is?

With the recent Registration Gains Republicans made in South Florida it is certainly 70 % possibility.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/florida/trump-vs-biden

As Roll Roons said St. Pete Polls have vastly overestimated D's in the past. They had Biden up 1 in 2020.

They had Gillum up 5 in 2018

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

And they had Nelson up 4 in 2018

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2018/florida/scott-vs-nelson

They have overestimated D's by an Average of 4 Points the last few Cycles.

So I would add 4 Points here and you get to 10.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Safe R, but this would be a pathetic win for Trump by the metrics of how this state is moving.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R, but this would be a pathetic win for Trump by the metrics of how this state is moving.

It's wave insurance