Let's Play a Game: Tell me why you think Trump is favored in November WITHOUT using polls

[Mr. Smith]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

Elections are won by feelings and "vibes", not facts.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

The economy getting worse is a serious argument. Real wages are down from when Biden took office, and it doesn't even factor in the increasing financing costs. Hiring rates have crashed to 2014 levels and are very close to entering Great Recession rates.

No serious person thinks the economy is getting worse. Stocks are at record-highs, unemployment is at record-lows and GDP is scorching. The US economy is one of the few major ones that have rebounded from the lows of the pandemic.

I can confirm the international part. Japan is in a recession that lost its status as third largest economy to Germany. And Germany itsself is stagnant or in a mild recession. Everyone wishes we had the same growth rates as the US has right now (or some of our Southern European friends).

Biden is also not polling as bad as other western leaders as a result .

Trudeau and Sunak are down 20+ points in the polls
Scholz in some polls is in Third place

Le Pen is now winning in polls and she lost by a massive margin in 17/22

You can go on and on but the 2024 hypothetical polling doesn’t show anywhere near the shift as you see in so many other western nations

[2016]

Trump might be favored for one sole reason: People view the Trump Presidency a success and Bidens a Failure.

[Steve from Lambeth]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

The economy getting worse is a serious argument. Real wages are down from when Biden took office, and it doesn't even factor in the increasing financing costs. Hiring rates have crashed to 2014 levels and are very close to entering Great Recession rates.

No serious person thinks the economy is getting worse. Stocks are at record-highs, unemployment is at record-lows and GDP is scorching. The US economy is one of the few major ones that have rebounded from the lows of the pandemic.

I can confirm the international part. Japan is in a recession that lost its status as third largest economy to Germany. And Germany itsself is stagnant or in a mild recession. Everyone wishes we had the same growth rates as the US has right now (or some of our Southern European friends).

Biden is also not polling as bad as other western leaders as a result .

Trudeau and Sunak are down 20+ points in the polls
Scholz in some polls is in Third place

Le Pen is now winning in polls and she lost by a massive margin in 17/22

You can go on and on but the 2024 hypothetical polling doesn’t show anywhere near the shift as you see in so many other western nations

These are polls not votes, we haven't voted yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump might be favored for one sole reason: People view the Trump Presidency a success and Bidens a Failure.

You know we haven't voted yet and blue states IL, NY, CA, MI, WI, PA and DC makes up two thirds of the country economy not red states.  Biden isn't a failure if IL, CA and NY which represents two thirds of the country economy and population are blue not red


Elite X tried to get me banned based on my blank D nut map, we haven't voted yet we can't ban someone for thinking positive on Biden until we voted, BIDEN HASNT LOST YET

ASK A D IF TRUMP WAS A DISASTER HE WAS

[forza nocta]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

Elections are won by feelings and "vibes", not facts.

I never said otherwise. What I did say was that the responses I've gotten have been largely based on what users here THINK voters are feeling, without any kind of evidence to back up their belief.

For example, I can claim my belief to be that a majority of voters think the GOP is a criminal, degenerate enterprise. My belief is backed up by the fact that Republicans have lost most contested elections in the last 2 years, their fundraising has dried up and party members are leaving Congress in disgust. I could be wrong of course, but at least my theory is backed up by even a smidge of evidence.

Where is the evidence that Biden being 81 is anywhere near a top concern for voters? It doesn't show up in fundraising. Nor in any primary results. Nor is there any intra-party fighting happening among Dems. In fact, Dems are more united behind Biden now than ever before. 

[forza nocta]

Why would we not believe the polls?

You can believe polls. But polls are supposed to reflect shifts and trends that are occurring in the real world.

Well, in the “real world” we’re in a period of higher-than-average inflation, there’s a border crisis, the Middle East is burning, and Joe Biden is a doddering 82-year-old.  The polls are a reflection of this reality; completely ignoring the polls so you can pretend your partisan spin narrative is actually reality is a Democrat cope.  

Wow. Crisis at the border, insane inflation, the world on fire... and it's all the fault of the Democrat dementia patient sitting in the Oval Office.

I agree that what you listed above is alarming and would be a non-starter with voters. Surely there's no recent high-turnout election in which voters from a district that swung to the GOP 1.5 years ago just voted to send doddering Biden another Dem minion to blow up gas prices and continue the invasion at our border. Right? RIGHT?

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://www.newsweek.com/democrat-tom-suozzi-wins-new-york-special-election-ap-projects-1869531

[Frodo]

Regarding high housing prices, President Biden should simply point to Wall Street as the fall guy for puchasing starter homes and pricing ordinary people out of the market, and by extension the Republican Party which has traditionally been an ally of Wall Street, and run on presenting policies that would counter that.  That would make sense to most Amercans. The truth is probably more complicated than that, but I would rather let Repubicans do the explaining, because once you're explaining, you're losing.  

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Regarding high housing prices, President Biden should simply point to Wall Street as the fall guy for puchasing starter homes and pricing ordinary people out of the market, and by extension the Republican Party which has traditionally been an ally of Wall Street, and run on presenting policies that would counter that.  That would make sense to most Amercans. The truth is probably more complicated than that, but I would rather let Repubicans do the explaining, because once you're explaining, you're losing.  

I haven't heard Democrats blame Wall Street in a decade because banking has been a strong fundraising ally of the Democratic establishment since the 90s and post-Romney stands completely against the Republican Party. Further, there is essentially zero logical connection between Wall Street and housing, except a conspiracy theory about BlackRock that quickly vanished because of how nonsensical it is.

The older homeowner class is where the Democrats are cleaning up anyway - sure some are upset and would like to move but  cannot due to interest rates - but most are very happy with their asset values.

The youth of today lack the same historical connotation and clearly blame the government/developers (and more importantly incumbent homeowners) for supply or the government for interest rates. Hard to win both sides of a generational warfare feud.

[Electric Circus]

Regarding high housing prices, President Biden should simply point to Wall Street as the fall guy for puchasing starter homes and pricing ordinary people out of the market, and by extension the Republican Party which has traditionally been an ally of Wall Street, and run on presenting policies that would counter that.  That would make sense to most Amercans. The truth is probably more complicated than that, but I would rather let Repubicans do the explaining, because once you're explaining, you're losing.  

MAGA Republicans always have the advantage in campaigns fought on this level of cynicism, for two reasons: (1) they are more committed to the bit, and (2) the Democratic coalition is more dependent on their ability to deliver results once in office.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, without polls, why would anyone think he's favored? Outside of feelings, there is no empirical or logistical evidence (fundraising, past elections, Trumps involvement in elections since 2016, etc. etc.) that points to Trump being favored.

[Ferguson97]

-  Crime is still above pre pandemic levels

Why does Trump get a pass for the pandemic? This is an absurd premise.

[jaichind]

People shop for groceries every week and will be much more sensitive to price increases there as things they rarely buy they will not even realize that prices are going up.  In that sense what average Joe's CPI is worse than the statistical CPI over the last few years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden just signed a stimulus check for Seniors they will be getting 2200 in stimulus good only for Seniors but let's enact a D Congress so that everyone can get it

[Open Source Intelligence]

I'll list a few, some of them I agree with, others not really, using historical anecdotes:

-2016 election-the Democrat offers sameness to a status quo most of the electorate are not happy with, Trump offers change
-1832 election-the Democrats are in a bubble where they only talk to themselves and so are completely misrepresenting what the electorate cares about (the rank-and-file Democratic voter I don't think cares about what happens to the people in Ukraine for the same reason the rank-and-file Democratic voter in the elections so far this century did not care about what happens to the people in Iraq and Afghanistan)
-1948 election-I'm really not sure how good polls are today considering response bias, my wife and I this weekend got called and texted on the Indiana Republican Governor primary, I'm publicly a Libertarian Party official, and she just responded the Libertarian running for Governor to joke the pollster which made him hang up; but what's stopping me from lying and picking some random person in the primary that I won't be voting in? that can be taken to be either pro-Trump or pro-Biden
-a combination of the 1896 and 1932 elections-the parties are more and more dividing by class, with Democrats being the more well off and the Republicans being the less well off, Democrats have positioned themselves championing the little guy forever and yet the party has a lot of very elite elements controlling policy at the moment; RFK Jr.'s campaign for example if it gets near universal ballot access I can potentially see becoming a one-time vote parking spot for "less well off Democrats", especially in urban areas, some Republicans will vote for him too of course

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

The 2020 election.

Biden won by an incredibly narrow margin by winning just enough votes in the swing states.

Biden (like most challengers) was able to operate as blank slate- appearing moderates to moderates and promising to be transformative to progressives, promising to be a safe pair of hands and return to norms. By actually being president he has of curse had to make decision that piss of one or more of the groups he needed in 2020, He needs all of them back.  He can't just be generic anti-trump guy.

Anicotally (which isn't the best but hey you banned the better evidence) it is easier to find disillusioned Biden 2020 votes than Trump 2020 voters.

Third parties look to be on more swing state ballots than they were in 2020. The green party will be on the ballot in Arizona and wisconsin this year for instance. They will also likely be on in GA when they weren't in 2020.

These three states were all decided by less than .7% And Trump only needs to flip those 3.

[Del Tachi]

Why would we not believe the polls?

You can believe polls. But polls are supposed to reflect shifts and trends that are occurring in the real world.

Well, in the “real world” we’re in a period of higher-than-average inflation, there’s a border crisis, the Middle East is burning, and Joe Biden is a doddering 82-year-old.  The polls are a reflection of this reality; completely ignoring the polls so you can pretend your partisan spin narrative is actually reality is a Democrat cope. 

Wow. Crisis at the border, insane inflation, the world on fire... and it's all the fault of the Democrat dementia patient sitting in the Oval Office.

I agree that what you listed above is alarming and would be a non-starter with voters. Surely there's no recent high-turnout election in which voters from a district that swung to the GOP 1.5 years ago just voted to send doddering Biden another Dem minion to blow up gas prices and continue the invasion at our border. Right? RIGHT?

Special and off-year elections are pretty inside baseball.  Yes, Democrats have performed well in these, but it's not inconsistent with the polls.  Polling from the New York Times is able to replicate Democrats' strong performances in NY-03 while also showing Biden trailing Trump, for example* 

And yes, 2022 was a good year for Democrats, one of the best midterms for the president's party in a long time.  But those results were reasonably well-predicted by polls, which had Republicans favored in the House and the Senate being close.

That the polls have now shifted to having Trump narrowly ahead is significant.  It's the first time since 2004 that Democrats have consistently been down in the polls of a presidential race.  Betting the election on a theory of skewed polls is denial-driven copium; a much smarter argument is that it's only March and the race between Trump and Biden still has a lot of time to develop.

*I think the reality is that Trump is still more popular with the general electorate than your median GOP candidate for Congress, especially post-Dobbs.  Of course this causes media-consuming liberals to short circuit.

[Sir Mohamed]

The 2020 election.

Biden won by an incredibly narrow margin by winning just enough votes in the swing states.

Biden (like most challengers) was able to operate as blank slate- appearing moderates to moderates and promising to be transformative to progressives, promising to be a safe pair of hands and return to norms. By actually being president he has of curse had to make decision that piss of one or more of the groups he needed in 2020, He needs all of them back.  He can't just be generic anti-trump guy.

Anicotally (which isn't the best but hey you banned the better evidence) it is easier to find disillusioned Biden 2020 votes than Trump 2020 voters.

Third parties look to be on more swing state ballots than they were in 2020. The green party will be on the ballot in Arizona and wisconsin this year for instance. They will also likely be on in GA when they weren't in 2020.

These three states were all decided by less than .7% And Trump only needs to flip those 3.

Biden isn't the challenger this time around, he's the incumbent and incumbents tend to do better unless there's a recession or they completely screwed up.

Your scenario also assumes Trump just keeps all of his 2020 voters. Some though have left him or are dying off/have died off. And latter almost certainly at a higher rate than Biden. Also, we'll have several new and first time voters on the rolls now. The 2024 electorate will be different from 2020. Just like that was different from 2016, and 2016 was different from 2012. It's not always just about flipping votes.

[wbrocks67]

The 2020 election.

Biden won by an incredibly narrow margin by winning just enough votes in the swing states.

Biden (like most challengers) was able to operate as blank slate- appearing moderates to moderates and promising to be transformative to progressives, promising to be a safe pair of hands and return to norms. By actually being president he has of curse had to make decision that piss of one or more of the groups he needed in 2020, He needs all of them back.  He can't just be generic anti-trump guy.

Anicotally (which isn't the best but hey you banned the better evidence) it is easier to find disillusioned Biden 2020 votes than Trump 2020 voters.

Third parties look to be on more swing state ballots than they were in 2020. The green party will be on the ballot in Arizona and wisconsin this year for instance. They will also likely be on in GA when they weren't in 2020.

These three states were all decided by less than .7% And Trump only needs to flip those 3.

A key thing about the 2020 "He only won by a slim margin" is the caveat that that was also the margin by Democrats basically doing very little canvassing. Because of COVID, Dems decided to go full virtual and do less/little/no in person canvassing compared to Republicans; that likely had a big effect I think on Trump also doing better than expected.

[forza nocta]

-1832 election-the Democrats are in a bubble where they only talk to themselves and so are completely misrepresenting what the electorate cares about (the rank-and-file Democratic voter I don't think cares about what happens to the people in Ukraine for the same reason the rank-and-file Democratic voter in the elections so far this century did not care about what happens to the people in Iraq and Afghanistan)

Interesting, I did not know that about the 1832 election. 

I think this scenario is what's going to unfold this year, except it's the GOP that is so clearly in a bubble. That's why Republicans (and the media) were caught so off-guard by the 2022 midterms. They are unfortunately NOT residing on Planet Earth

Do people really think normal Americans think the January 6ers are hostages? That we should pardon them all and let Trump reshape the federal government with his loyalists? That we should abandon Ukraine to Russia? Not to mention abortion and the fact that the economy IS GOOD, unlike what conservative media will tell you. Should be an interesting year either way.