Let's Play a Game: Tell me why you think Trump is favored in November WITHOUT using polls

[forza nocta]

It's a simple game. For those who think Trump is favored to win the November election, explain your position without using any polling data in your argument.

Since the polls are all pointing to a strong win for Trump, everyone should be able to come up with real-world indicators and data that back up what the polls are saying.

Go!

[EliteLX]

What is it about lefties & libs that make them so disposed to moving goalposts?

It applies to almost every facet of their advocacy, beliefs, agendas, ..

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's not facing until we vote, the maps on Steve Konaki are blank on Eday

Elite X wanted to ban me but we haven't voted yet now if we voted and Trump won then I should be banned

[Arizona Iced Tea]

A lot of it is people just don't like Biden anymore. He was supposed to be this boring generic guy who was going to take us back to the 2nd Obama era. However, the world is more chaotic then ever before and America is in big trouble. After Covid people genuinely miss 2017-2019 when the economy was good, and while 2020 was a nightmare voters understand it was a once in a century event and the Dems contributed to the lockdowns.

If you ask anyone if they would rather relive 2017-2019 or 2021-2023 the answer wouldn't even be close.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A lot of it is people just don't like Biden anymore. He was supposed to be this boring generic guy who was going to take us back to the 2nd Obama era. However, the world is more chaotic then ever before and America is in big trouble. After Covid people genuinely miss 2017-2019 when the economy was good, and while 2020 was a nightmare voters understand it was a once in a century event and the Dems contributed to the lockdowns.

If you ask anyone if they would rather relive 2017-2019 or 2021-2023 the answer wouldn't even be close.

Yeah let's all play a game and continue to give tax cuts to the wealthy among us

[forza nocta]

A lot of it is people just don't like Biden anymore. He was supposed to be this boring generic guy who was going to take us back to the 2nd Obama era. However, the world is more chaotic then ever before and America is in big trouble. After Covid people genuinely miss 2017-2019 when the economy was good, and while 2020 was a nightmare voters understand it was a once in a century event and the Dems contributed to the lockdowns.

If you ask anyone if they would rather relive 2017-2019 or 2021-2023 the answer wouldn't even be close.

What is America in big trouble with? And the economy is better today than it was in 2017-2019.

If you ask anyone if they would rather relive 2017-2019 or 2021-2023 the answer wouldn't even be close.

So your argument is that people want Trump back because they miss the pre-covid times, even though Trump was president in 2020 when covid hit, a crisis that he mishandled so badly that it partly led to him losing re-election. Do I have that right?

That's like saying Hoover would be favored over FDR in the 1936 election because Americans miss the good old days before The Great Depression hit.

[Del Tachi]

Why would we not believe the polls?

[OSR stands with Israel]

It’s not that hard given Trump barley lost and since then :

- Inflation is much higher under Biden’s watch then it was under Trump

- Issues like the Border and Crime have gotten way worse since Jan of 2021

- the economy is also no where near as good as democrats like to claim it is . It’s much harder to find a job in tech than it was a few years back for example

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why would we not believe the polls?

Because we hadn't voted yet and 22 had a Red wave remember

[Vern]

Because people are struggling to make ends met. And they blame Biden for it. Plain and simple.

[oldtimer]

Trump getting that close in winning in 2020, despite things being very unfavourable for him (Coronavirus, a Biden Presidency being an abstract thing).

Now those unfavourable conditions are gone, and some work against Biden now (like foreign policy), so naturally we can assume he should do better.

[President Johnson]

Inb4 riverwalk says because the economy is getting worse.

[forza nocta]

Why would we not believe the polls?

You can believe polls. But polls are supposed to reflect shifts and trends that are occurring in the real world.

It’s not that hard given Trump barley lost and since then :

- Inflation is much higher under Biden’s watch then it was under Trump

- Issues like the Border and Crime have gotten way worse since Jan of 2021

- the economy is also no where near as good as democrats like to claim it is . It’s much harder to find a job in tech than it was a few years back for example and the labor participation rate is the lowest it’s been since 1978!

https://money.cnn.com/2013/09/06/news/economy/labor-force-participation/

- The inflation rate was at heights not seen in decades in 2022, yet Rs still put up a pretty subpar performance in the midterms that year. Don't see why that would now move people to Trump when the economy is in much better shape currently.

- Crime is way down nationwide since Jan 2021 and Trump is actively blocking a border bill from being passed.

- The article you posted is from 2013. Also the prime labor participation rate is pretty close to all-time highs. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060

Because people are struggling to make ends met. And they blame Biden for it. Plain and simple.

People are in fact NOT struggling to make ends meet. Unemployment is at record-lows. Wages are up. Stock market is strong. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why would we not believe the polls?

You can believe polls. But polls are supposed to reflect shifts and trends that are occurring in the real world.

It’s not that hard given Trump barley lost and since then :

- Inflation is much higher under Biden’s watch then it was under Trump

- Issues like the Border and Crime have gotten way worse since Jan of 2021

- the economy is also no where near as good as democrats like to claim it is . It’s much harder to find a job in tech than it was a few years back for example and the labor participation rate is the lowest it’s been since 1978!

https://money.cnn.com/2013/09/06/news/economy/labor-force-participation/

- The inflation rate was at heights not seen in decades in 2022, yet Rs still put up a pretty subpar performance in the midterms that year. Don't see why that would now move people to Trump when the economy is in much better shape currently.

- Crime is way down since nationwide since Jan 2021 and Trump is actively blocking a border bill from being passed.

- The article you posted is from 2013. Also the prime labor participation rate is pretty close to all-time highs. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060

- If the results are like how the house elections were in 2022, Donald Trump wins . The house electoral college map in 2022 is 2016-MI + NV .

-  Crime is still above pre pandemic levels and on the border , the vast majority of people blame Biden for the border not congress . Biden is the one who reversed Trump’s immigration policies on day 1 by EO and then also imposed a deportation freeze so nobody outside hardcore democrats or progressives buys this is a congressional problem .

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesfarrell/2024/01/25/homicides-and-violent-crimes-down-yet-still-above-pre-pandemic-levels-new-report-says/amp/

https://www.npr.org/sections/president-biden-takes-office/2021/01/21/959074750/biden-suspends-deportations-stops-remain-in-mexico-policy

- Ok my bad , I read 2023 so I’ll edit the post  . Still though, talk to the average person and they don’t think the economy is good at all . It’s way harder to get a job in tech for example than it was a few years ago and cost of living issues still is way worse than it was in 2019 . To say the economy is good let alone better then it was in 2019 to most people seems like gaslighting


- I will add this and that is many normies feel embarrassed by Biden as President. Very few people actually think he’s doing a good job

[MillennialModerate]

Because the average voter isn’t educated. They don’t know the cause of inflation and they forget the chaos and corruption of the Trump years

[7,052,770]

Facts: The economy is improving and crime is falling.
Feelings: But it seems like they're getting worse, so I guess I'll vote for Trump!

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

A lot of it is people just don't like Biden anymore. He was supposed to be this boring generic guy who was going to take us back to the 2nd Obama era. However, the world is more chaotic then ever before and America is in big trouble. After Covid people genuinely miss 2017-2019 when the economy was good, and while 2020 was a nightmare voters understand it was a once in a century event and the Dems contributed to the lockdowns.

If you ask anyone if they would rather relive 2017-2019 or 2021-2023 the answer wouldn't even be close.

Do you and others who pine for 2017-2019 understand we are never going back to those days? Trump is partly to blame for inflation and the like now.

[Umengus]

-biden is too old

-immigration and crime

-interest rates to buy a house

-lawfare against trump

-good memory of trump's mandate

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I still maintain that Trump is a narrow underdog in 2024, but it's absurd to obsess over fundamentals and incumbency (the ringing endorsement of a fraction of a percentage historical result....) when few at the margins are swinging their vote based on performance, and most will be decided by people actually showing up or not. And it is clear that one candidate has more passionate supporters while slowly shedding the intensity of casual disapprovers. The most important thing to normies is the fact that Trump is no longer on Twitter so they don't have to be oversaturated with his every thought in every waking moment.

So your argument is that people want Trump back because they miss the pre-covid times, even though Trump was president in 2020 when covid hit, a crisis that he mishandled so badly that it partly led to him losing re-election. Do I have that right?

That's like saying Hoover would be favored over FDR in the 1936 election because Americans miss the good old days before The Great Depression hit.

As this poster already stated, this is viewed as an event outside of Trump's control - closer to 9/11 than the depression (although neither is a useful comparison). Every nation in the world was impacted by an event outside of our borders.

Trump narrowly lost re-election not because of a singular event but because he was a massively polarizing figure at the time that people at the margins just wanted out of the news. Now that people are not locked in the home with their television on all day, the record turnouts of 2020 should decline to include only the most fanatical and fewer of the 'disapprove of both' contingent that were desperately looking to restore normalcy to their lives.

We were told after 2016 than Trump likely could not expand beyond is 63 million hardcore supporters and then he suddenly won 10 million more as he came to represent the entire American Right that previously voiced concerns about him. A Trump upset could involve keeping that coalition together as much as possible while Biden votes dwindle due to youth apathy. No shift in minorities required - although polling indicates that even that may be possible.

[forza nocta]

Trump getting that close in winning in 2020, despite things being very unfavourable for him (Coronavirus, a Biden Presidency being an abstract thing).

Now those unfavourable conditions are gone, and some work against Biden now (like foreign policy), so naturally we can assume he should do better.

You say foreign policy works against Biden like Trump didn't just promise to give Europe away to Putin https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html


But yea, besides that and also that Jan. 6 thing and also those criminal cases in 4 jurisdictions, unfavorable conditions for Trump are all gone. 

Because the average voter isn’t educated. They don’t know the cause of inflation and they forget the chaos and corruption of the Trump years 

That's what a campaign is for.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The economy is getting worse. Costs have went up 20%, and that does not even include the increased financing costs. The recent labor market indicators showing a crash of hiring rates increasingly points to a recession by the election.

Foreign conflicts that never happened under Trump’ s watch are occurring under Biden’ s.

Migrant crossings are about 5x what they were under Trump.

Biden barely won last time and has done a far worse job than people expected him to do as president.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It’s not that hard given Trump barley lost and since then :

- Inflation is much higher under Biden’s watch then it was under Trump

- Issues like the Border and Crime have gotten way worse since Jan of 2021

- the economy is also no where near as good as democrats like to claim it is . It’s much harder to find a job in tech than it was a few years back for example

It is hard to find a job almost anywhere now. It is a big shift from even just months ago.

[forza nocta]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

The economy getting worse is a serious argument. Real wages are down from when Biden took office, and it doesn't even factor in the increasing financing costs. Hiring rates have crashed to 2014 levels and are very close to entering Great Recession rates.

[jaichind]