Let's Play a Game: Tell me why you think Trump is favored in November WITHOUT using polls

[jaichind]

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

[President Johnson]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

The economy getting worse is a serious argument. Real wages are down from when Biden took office, and it doesn't even factor in the increasing financing costs. Hiring rates have crashed to 2014 levels and are very close to entering Great Recession rates.

Not for 2023 and into 2024:

https://www.americanprogress.org/article/workers-paychecks-are-growing-more-quickly-than-prices/

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/06/chart-wage-growth-beating-inflation

Also economists mostly don't expect a recession for 2024. Just some are saying the risk isn't "off the table", which is barely a prediction.

https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-recession-forecasters-strength-ed49d9bfa9a26b6301065b990169d387

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/deutsche-bank-no-longer-expects-us-recession-2024-2024-02-06/

[forza nocta]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

The economy getting worse is a serious argument. Real wages are down from when Biden took office, and it doesn't even factor in the increasing financing costs. Hiring rates have crashed to 2014 levels and are very close to entering Great Recession rates.

No serious person thinks the economy is getting worse. Stocks are at record-highs, unemployment is at record-lows and GDP is scorching. The US economy is one of the few major ones that have rebounded from the lows of the pandemic.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

The economy getting worse is a serious argument. Real wages are down from when Biden took office, and it doesn't even factor in the increasing financing costs. Hiring rates have crashed to 2014 levels and are very close to entering Great Recession rates.

No serious person thinks the economy is getting worse. Stocks are at record-highs, unemployment is at record-lows and GDP is scorching. The US economy is one of the few major ones that have rebounded from the lows of the pandemic.

Unemployment is starting to rise. It is around the levels where recessions normally start. Real wages have fallen. The stock market means very little now in an era of mass liquidity, and the stock gains are almost entirely concentrated in AI, which most Americans do not work in.

The GDP is adjusted for PCE inflation, which is way below the CPI that Americans live through. Furthermore, GDP and GDI diverge a lot right now when they should be measuring the same thing, with GDI 3% below GDP. Usually this occurs right before a recession, and GDP eventually gets revised down towards GDI.

[President Johnson]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

The economy getting worse is a serious argument. Real wages are down from when Biden took office, and it doesn't even factor in the increasing financing costs. Hiring rates have crashed to 2014 levels and are very close to entering Great Recession rates.

No serious person thinks the economy is getting worse. Stocks are at record-highs, unemployment is at record-lows and GDP is scorching. The US economy is one of the few major ones that have rebounded from the lows of the pandemic.

I can confirm the international part. Japan is in a recession that lost its status as third largest economy to Germany. And Germany itsself is stagnant or in a mild recession. Everyone wishes we had the same growth rates as the US has right now (or some of our Southern European friends).

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

The economy getting worse is a serious argument. Real wages are down from when Biden took office, and it doesn't even factor in the increasing financing costs. Hiring rates have crashed to 2014 levels and are very close to entering Great Recession rates.

Not for 2023 and into 2024:

https://www.americanprogress.org/article/workers-paychecks-are-growing-more-quickly-than-prices/

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/06/chart-wage-growth-beating-inflation

Also economists mostly don't expect a recession for 2024. Just some are saying the risk isn't "off the table", which is barely a prediction.

https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-recession-forecasters-strength-ed49d9bfa9a26b6301065b990169d387

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/deutsche-bank-no-longer-expects-us-recession-2024-2024-02-06/

Real wages are down cumulatively from when Biden took office. Goods deflation, which helped wages last year, is over now with commodities breaking out.

Economists all expected recessions in 2023, so I doubt their predictions mean much.

[forza nocta]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

The economy getting worse is a serious argument. Real wages are down from when Biden took office, and it doesn't even factor in the increasing financing costs. Hiring rates have crashed to 2014 levels and are very close to entering Great Recession rates.

No serious person thinks the economy is getting worse. Stocks are at record-highs, unemployment is at record-lows and GDP is scorching. The US economy is one of the few major ones that have rebounded from the lows of the pandemic.

Unemployment is starting to rise. It is around the levels where recessions normally start. Real wages have fallen. The stock market means very little now in an era of mass liquidity, and the stock gains are almost entirely concentrated in AI, which most Americans do not work in.

The GDP is adjusted for PCE inflation, which is way below the CPI that Americans live through. Furthermore, GDP and GDI diverge a lot right now when they should be measuring the same thing, with GDI 3% below GDP. Usually this occurs right before a recession, and GDP eventually gets revised down towards GDI.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

The economy getting worse is a serious argument. Real wages are down from when Biden took office, and it doesn't even factor in the increasing financing costs. Hiring rates have crashed to 2014 levels and are very close to entering Great Recession rates.

No serious person thinks the economy is getting worse. Stocks are at record-highs, unemployment is at record-lows and GDP is scorching. The US economy is one of the few major ones that have rebounded from the lows of the pandemic.

I can confirm the international part. Japan is in a recession that lost its status as third largest economy to Germany. And Germany itsself is stagnant or in a mild recession. Everyone wishes we had the same growth rates as the US has right now (or some of our Southern European friends).

Collapsing hiring rates is not a recovery.

[wnwnwn]

Arguments for Trump:
- Gas prices: they can be correlated to Biden's economic, energy and foreing police, being am easy sources of attacks.
- The border: Even if the House GOP doesn't pass the Senate bill, Biden can be blamed for the situation that led to the necessity of the bill.
- Biden 2020 antizionists.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Arguments for Trump:
- Gas prices: they can be correlated to Biden's economic, energy and foreing police, being am easy sources of attacks.
- The border: Even if the House GOP doesn't pass the Senate bill, Biden can be blamed for the situation that led to the necessity of the bill.
- Biden 2020 antizionists.

The bill failed in the Democratic controlled Senate, not the House.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

You are asking people to disregard data and tell a narrative and then complaining about a lack of data. Disregarding low turnout special elections, why is Joe Biden so obviously favored? Every presidential election of my adult life has felt like an inevitable Democratic coronation except this one because of general discontent.

[caf_elections]

This is the biggest one to me.

A modest home in safe neighborhood in 2010, which I'm equivalating to the median sell price of a new house, was $221,000.

That same home in the same neighborhood in 2023, which again I'm equivalating to the median sell price of a new house, was $417,000.


And in that time, the value of the dollar has decreased, nobodies adjusted income value has increased, and the price of every other good and service has increased, too.

I don't give a damn what percentage inflation is. It could be 0%, but all that means is that temporarily the price of everyday items has stopped growing relative to your income, and that someday, its going to continue to move apart again.

It's ironic how most of Biden's support is coming from young college students who don't realize how f***ed they are when it's time to settle down and buy a home.

[forza nocta]

Arguments for Trump:
- Gas prices: they can be correlated to Biden's economic, energy and foreing police, being am easy sources of attacks.
- The border: Even if the House GOP doesn't pass the Senate bill, Biden can be blamed for the situation that led to the necessity of the bill.
- Biden 2020 antizionists.

- Gas prices are at standard prices and US energy production is booming.
- Alright... but if people care about the border so much that it'll make them vote for Trump, why are Dems still cruising in elections?
- I'll take this one. Though I don't think this group is all that big to swing the election to Trump.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Arguments for Trump:
- Gas prices: they can be correlated to Biden's economic, energy and foreing police, being am easy sources of attacks.
- The border: Even if the House GOP doesn't pass the Senate bill, Biden can be blamed for the situation that led to the necessity of the bill.
- Biden 2020 antizionists.

- Gas prices are at standard prices and US energy production is booming.
- Alright... but if people care about the border so much that it'll make them vote for Trump, why are Dems still cruising in elections?
- I'll take this one. Though I don't think this group is all that big to swing the election to Trump.

Gas prices are at 3.45 right now, about 40% higher than 2019. They will continue rising for the next few months.

Family finances continue to worsen. https://civiqs.com/results/economy_family_retro?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[forza nocta]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

You are asking people to disregard data and tell a narrative and then complaining about a lack of data. Disregarding low turnout special elections, why is Joe Biden so obviously favored? Every presidential election of my adult life has felt like an inevitable Democratic coronation except this one because of general discontent.

So election results don't count because of "low turnout", but polls are infallible?

Nearly every pro-Trump argument I see falls apart after just the slightest bit of critical thinking. People keep hand-waving actual election results like they don't mean anything when they are telling us EVERYTHING.

Apparently, the economy and the border has been so terrible under Biden that voters will crawl over broken glass to vote fking Donald Trump back into office. There's just one problem I have with this argument. Joe Biden is a DEMOCRAT.

Voters don't know a lot. But they DO know that Biden is a Democrat and Trump is a Republican. If inflation and "open borders" were of such high concern to voters that it would turn them ultra-MAGA, they certainly would not vote for MORE DEMOCRATS to continue carrying out Joe Biden's policies... and yet that's exactly what's been happening since 2022. You can do whatever mental gymnastics you want, but that is reality and fact.

Like it's insane to see people saying Arizona is going to vote for Trump when this traditionally GOP state voted for Katie Hobbs! when inflation was at like 7%, gas prices were at record-highs and migrants were "invading" the state.

And you want me to believe Trump has some magical powers that will guide him to a win in this state that he LOST in the last election, while he's scraping for cash and undergoing criminal trials in several jurisdictions. Give me a break  

[Electric Circus]

High interest rates are choking out economic hope.

The federal government is paralyzed by debt and political dysfunction.

The incumbent party relies on votes from a coalition that suffers from increasingly fraught internal divisions, including on sensitive issues such as crime, border security, and the war between Israel and Hamas.

The administration is struggling to cope with a challenging series of foreign policy crises, few of which appear likely to abate in the coming months, and some of which could get significantly worse.

Given these circumstances, do you trust Your Fellow Americans to vote for a well-meaning incumbent running as a respecter of norms, tradition, and rule of law over a strongman who promises to fix all of their problems by ruling as an autocrat?

[nerd73]

    Atlas is pretty out of touch. Many Americans do not follow the latest political news and economic data - certainly not from "mainstream media" news outlets - the way most of us do. Many Americans view the elite as leftist because they don't think of Wall Street when they think of the "elite", they think of Hollywood. Hollywood is simply just far more visible in the public eye. They don't think of oil executives lobbying to eliminate government regulations and cut their taxes, they think of movie and music stars calling for action on climate change while using private jets.

    Perhaps deep down they know Trump is a con artist, but they're desperate to get the 2019 economy back (because let's face it, regardless of why that is, most Americans certainly feel worse off than they were five years ago) and don't care about Trump's legal issues or January 6th. The legal issues they chalk up to that same elite trying to go after him and January 6th as either a rally that went awry or a justified protest against "voter fraud".

    I know people personally, even ones that voted Bennet/Polis on the state level in 2022, who voted for Trump in the primary just to spite the Colorado Supreme Court for trying to take Trump off the ballot. The optics of that decision were terrible, regardless of whether or not the decision was legally correct or not.

[S019]

People think the economy is bad. They don't care that the stock market is hitting new heights or whatever. They are wondering why everything is more expensive now, and what many people actually want is deflation, of course they don't know that deflation would be bad in its own way. People are just upset stuff is more expensive and think if Trump comes back, all the prices will return to their 2020 levels.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

You are asking people to disregard data and tell a narrative and then complaining about a lack of data. Disregarding low turnout special elections, why is Joe Biden so obviously favored? Every presidential election of my adult life has felt like an inevitable Democratic coronation except this one because of general discontent.

So election results don't count because of "low turnout", but polls are infallible?

Nearly every pro-Trump argument I see falls apart after just the slightest bit of critical thinking. People keep hand-waving actual election results like they don't mean anything when they are telling us EVERYTHING.

Apparently, the economy and the border has been so terrible under Biden that voters will crawl over broken glass to vote fking Donald Trump back into office. There's just one problem I have with this argument. Joe Biden is a DEMOCRAT.

Voters don't know a lot. But they DO know that Biden is a Democrat and Trump is a Republican. If inflation and "open borders" were of such high concern to voters that it would turn them ultra-MAGA, they certainly would not vote for MORE DEMOCRATS to continue carrying out Joe Biden's policies... and yet that's exactly what's been happening since 2022. You can do whatever mental gymnastics you want, but that is reality and fact.

Like it's insane to see people saying Arizona is going to vote for Trump when this traditionally GOP state voted for Katie Hobbs! when inflation was at like 7%, gas prices were at record-highs and migrants were "invading" the state.

And you want me to believe Trump has some magical powers that will guide him to a win in this state that he LOST in the last election, while he's scraping for cash and undergoing criminal trials in several jurisdictions. Give me a break  

I've already said that Biden is favored, I'm just throwing your same absurd argument back at you (use data but not that data). When have special election results been predictive? Especially without Trump on the ballot who has fanatics who will vote for him and only him. I certainly haven't found any candidate who inspires me to go to the polls in recent years.

The respected (non-junk) polling industry has been incredible accurate and I have very few reasons to think anything has changed from 2018-2022 polling. Those arguments are less convincing. I think Biden is favored because polling will change, not because it is wrong.

But it's almost a coin flip. Many Americans only think about politics when a presidential election is on the ballot. They will go to the polls every 4 years and do their civic duty and not remember a thing about midterm Senate races. No Trump devotee or copycat has come close to copying his appeal, so it's no surprise some people feel no need to vote between two nobodies - like I didn't in Pennsylvania 2022.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

You are asking people to disregard data and tell a narrative and then complaining about a lack of data. Disregarding low turnout special elections, why is Joe Biden so obviously favored? Every presidential election of my adult life has felt like an inevitable Democratic coronation except this one because of general discontent.

So election results don't count because of "low turnout", but polls are infallible?

Nearly every pro-Trump argument I see falls apart after just the slightest bit of critical thinking. People keep hand-waving actual election results like they don't mean anything when they are telling us EVERYTHING.

Apparently, the economy and the border has been so terrible under Biden that voters will crawl over broken glass to vote fking Donald Trump back into office. There's just one problem I have with this argument. Joe Biden is a DEMOCRAT.

Voters don't know a lot. But they DO know that Biden is a Democrat and Trump is a Republican. If inflation and "open borders" were of such high concern to voters that it would turn them ultra-MAGA, they certainly would not vote for MORE DEMOCRATS to continue carrying out Joe Biden's policies... and yet that's exactly what's been happening since 2022. You can do whatever mental gymnastics you want, but that is reality and fact.

Like it's insane to see people saying Arizona is going to vote for Trump when this traditionally GOP state voted for Katie Hobbs! when inflation was at like 7%, gas prices were at record-highs and migrants were "invading" the state.

And you want me to believe Trump has some magical powers that will guide him to a win in this state that he LOST in the last election, while he's scraping for cash and undergoing criminal trials in several jurisdictions. Give me a break  

I've already said that Biden is favored, I'm just throwing your same absurd argument back at you (use data but not that data). When have special election results been predictive? Especially without Trump on the ballot who has fanatics who will vote for him and only him. I certainly haven't found any candidate who inspires me to go to the polls in recent years.

The respected (non-junk) polling industry has been incredible accurate and I have very few reasons to think anything has changed from 2018-2022 polling. Those arguments are less convincing. I think Biden is favored because polling will change, not because it is wrong.

But it's almost a coin flip. Many Americans only think about politics when a presidential election is on the ballot. They will go to the polls every 4 years and do their civic duty and not remember a thing about midterm Senate races. No Trump devotee or copycat has come close to copying his appeal, so it's no surprise some people feel no need to vote between two nobodies - like I didn't in Pennsylvania 2022.

Biden is not favored. Neither fundamentals nor polls point to this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

You are asking people to disregard data and tell a narrative and then complaining about a lack of data. Disregarding low turnout special elections, why is Joe Biden so obviously favored? Every presidential election of my adult life has felt like an inevitable Democratic coronation except this one because of general discontent.

So election results don't count because of "low turnout", but polls are infallible?

Nearly every pro-Trump argument I see falls apart after just the slightest bit of critical thinking. People keep hand-waving actual election results like they don't mean anything when they are telling us EVERYTHING.

Apparently, the economy and the border has been so terrible under Biden that voters will crawl over broken glass to vote fking Donald Trump back into office. There's just one problem I have with this argument. Joe Biden is a DEMOCRAT.

Voters don't know a lot. But they DO know that Biden is a Democrat and Trump is a Republican. If inflation and "open borders" were of such high concern to voters that it would turn them ultra-MAGA, they certainly would not vote for MORE DEMOCRATS to continue carrying out Joe Biden's policies... and yet that's exactly what's been happening since 2022. You can do whatever mental gymnastics you want, but that is reality and fact.

Like it's insane to see people saying Arizona is going to vote for Trump when this traditionally GOP state voted for Katie Hobbs! when inflation was at like 7%, gas prices were at record-highs and migrants were "invading" the state.

And you want me to believe Trump has some magical powers that will guide him to a win in this state that he LOST in the last election, while he's scraping for cash and undergoing criminal trials in several jurisdictions. Give me a break  

I've already said that Biden is favored, I'm just throwing your same absurd argument back at you (use data but not that data). When have special election results been predictive? Especially without Trump on the ballot who has fanatics who will vote for him and only him. I certainly haven't found any candidate who inspires me to go to the polls in recent years.

The respected (non-junk) polling industry has been incredible accurate and I have very few reasons to think anything has changed from 2018-2022 polling. Those arguments are less convincing. I think Biden is favored because polling will change, not because it is wrong.

But it's almost a coin flip. Many Americans only think about politics when a presidential election is on the ballot. They will go to the polls every 4 years and do their civic duty and not remember a thing about midterm Senate races. No Trump devotee or copycat has come close to copying his appeal, so it's no surprise some people feel no need to vote between two nobodies - like I didn't in Pennsylvania 2022.

Biden is not favored. Neither fundamentals nor polls point to this.

Lol we have been winning the blue wall except Hillary lost Biden and Obama won it in 2008/12 you act like blue states are AL, what have I have been telling Redban he is a hack on polls that we still have to vote

Conserv act like the polls are end all be all, even if Trump gets elected there is gonna be dissatisfied voters because he fav the rich with his silly tax cuts


We just won the blue wall in 22 and no your map won't win with MN and NH and WI and MI and PA and NV going R

[heatcharger]

The virgin poll believer vs the Chad Biden bro

[Vern]

Why would we not believe the polls?

You can believe polls. But polls are supposed to reflect shifts and trends that are occurring in the real world.

It’s not that hard given Trump barley lost and since then :

- Inflation is much higher under Biden’s watch then it was under Trump

- Issues like the Border and Crime have gotten way worse since Jan of 2021

- the economy is also no where near as good as democrats like to claim it is . It’s much harder to find a job in tech than it was a few years back for example and the labor participation rate is the lowest it’s been since 1978!

https://money.cnn.com/2013/09/06/news/economy/labor-force-participation/

- The inflation rate was at heights not seen in decades in 2022, yet Rs still put up a pretty subpar performance in the midterms that year. Don't see why that would now move people to Trump when the economy is in much better shape currently.

- Crime is way down nationwide since Jan 2021 and Trump is actively blocking a border bill from being passed.

- The article you posted is from 2013. Also the prime labor participation rate is pretty close to all-time highs. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060

Because people are struggling to make ends met. And they blame Biden for it. Plain and simple.

People are in fact NOT struggling to make ends meet. Unemployment is at record-lows. Wages are up. Stock market is strong. 

I don’t know what Fantasy bubble you’re living in. But you might want to get out of it.

[Del Tachi]

Why would we not believe the polls?

You can believe polls. But polls are supposed to reflect shifts and trends that are occurring in the real world.

Well, in the “real world” we’re in a period of higher-than-average inflation, there’s a border crisis, the Middle East is burning, and Joe Biden is a doddering 82-year-old.  The polls are a reflection of this reality; completely ignoring the polls so you can pretend your partisan spin narrative is actually reality is a Democrat cope.