Democrats Lose Badly in 2008

[DownWithTheLeft]

This timeline starts with today and ends whenever I feel like.  Like usual, my timeline will have a bias toward people I like but I will try to keep this one somewhat realistic.  It will focus heavily on elections rather than events although some events will occur.

The Fourth of July rolls around and Fred Thompson makes it official from his home in Tennessee that we will run for president in 2008.  After this annoucnement he immediatley jumps into second place with Romney quite close:

Giuliani 21%
Thompson 20%
Romney 18%
McCain 7%
Gingrich 5%
Huckabee 4%
Brownback 2%
T.Thompson 1%
Tancredo <1%
Hunter <1%
Gilmore <1%
Undecided 9%

It appears that it will be a three-horse race to the finish but John McCain will not be one of those horses.  On the Democratic side, Fmr. VP Al Gore continues to deny he will run for president and the polls stand as follows:

Clinton 28%
Obama 25%
Edwards 20%
Richardson 8%
Biden 4%
Gravel 1%
Dodd <1%
Kuicinich <1%
Undecided 13%

On July 18th, Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez hands his resignation in to President Bush and Bush announces he will appoint a replacement with in the next few weeks.  Three days, Chris Dodd announces he will be dropping out of the race and supporting Hillary.  On July 29th, Bush announces he will appoint Fmr. Sen. John Danforth the new Attorney General.

Thompson has been in the race a month now and he has surged to the top leaving the rest of the field (spar Giuliani and Romney) in the dust:

Thompson 31%
Giuliani 22%
Romney 21%
Gingrich 6%
McCain 5%
Huckabee 3%
Brownback 2%
Tancredo <1%
Hunter <1%
T. Thompson <1%
Gilmore <1%
Paul <1%
Undecided 8%

Citing a lack of funds and horrible poll numbers, Tommy Thompson drops out of the race and supports Fred Thompson.  It looks like the train-wreck known as McCain might finally be coming to an end.  Hillary continues to lead for the Democrats.  For what might be the final time Al Gore announces that under no circumstances will he run and he will no longer even answer questions about it.  Also, Newt Gingrich announces that is satisfied with Fred Thompson and will not run and instead support Thompson.  On September 5, Gilmore announces he will be dropping out of the race and supporting Romney.  Althought Thompson leads nationwide, it is Romney who leads in both New Hampshire and Iowa.

On September 16, Chuck Hagel annouces that will not run for president and instead will support Ron Paul in the Republican primary.  The endorsment gives Paul an immediate bump in the polls and pushes him ahead of McCain.  The plot thickens futher when Bloomberg annouces that he will also not run and instead support Rudy Giuliani, however, his decision not to run might change if Mitt Romney is the nominee.  When asked about Thompson he says he could live with him president.

The polls as of October 1:

Thompson 32%
Giuliani 24%
Romney 24%
Paul 7%
McCain 3%
Others: <1%
Undecided: 6%

Clinton 41%
Obama 19%
Edwards 18%
Richardson 12%
Biden 3%
Gravel <1%
Kuicinich <1%
Undecided 6%

Updates later

[Gabu]

Let me guess, by the end of this timeline the Democratic Party becomes extinct, yet again.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Let me guess, by the end of this timeline the Democratic Party becomes extinct, yet again.

I haven't thought that far ahead.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

While the Democrats don't have a lock yet on the White House, barring an unexpected intra-party squabble a la Breckenridge/Douglas in 1860, the only way I see them losing badly in 2008 is if we have a major terrorist incident somewhere in the world at least as destructive as 9-11.  Even then, depending on the circumstances, it might even help the Democrats if they are able to plausibly argue to the voters that it resulted from Bush wasting time, money, and blood in Iraq.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Thompson 32%
Giuliani 24%
Romney 24%
Paul 7%
McCain 3%
Others: <1%
Undecided: 6%

Clinton 41%
Obama 19%
Edwards 18%
Richardson 12%
Biden 3%
Gravel <1%
Kuicinich <1%
Undecided 6%

A shocking announcement comes from Ron Paul in mid-October.  He is catching a lot of steam, but still it looks like winning the Republican nomination will be an impossible task, so Ron Paul announces that like he did in 1988, he will run as a Libertarian in the 2008 presidential election.  This stuns the country and many think that his candidacy, which has a lot of donors lined up, could put a major dent in to 2 party politics.  The new polls released immediatley after Paul's decision show his support has gone to Giuliani:

Thompson 33%
Giuliani 32%
Romney 25%
McCain 4%
Huckabee 3%
Brownback 1%
Others <1%
Undecided 6%

On November 1st, Al Gore annouces one last final time that he is NOT a candidate for president in 2008 but still refuses to endorse any candidate at this time.  McCain announces that his campaign is simply on a minor path of bad luck but he feels things will change rather shortly in an interview with Lou Dobbs.  Dobbs ends the program by thanking McCain for the interview then telling his audience that he will be leaving the show shortly as he has accepted Ron Paul's offer to be his VP on the Libertarian ticket.

December now rolls around and appears Hillary's momentum is somewhat and the trend continues when Drudge Report breaks a story about Barack Obama receiving illegal bribes from the Black Panthers while running for senate in Illinois.  Obama denies the allegations but the evidence against him seems rather overwhelming.  New polls from the Democrats:

Clinton 44%
Edwards 25%
Obama 11%
Richardson 10%
Others <1%
Undecided 7%

It is now the new year and Iowa is fast approaching, what will happen next?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Iowa comes and the results are somewhat surprising as no one thought Edwards or Romney had a shot and they both win:

Romney 32%
Thompson 30%
Giuliani 13%
Huckabee 5%
Brownback 4%
McCain 2%
Tancredo 2%
Hunter 1%
Gilmore 1%

Following this incredibly dismal finish McCain drops out and so does Gilmore.  Giuliani says he never really campaigned hard here and expects great results in New Hampshire.

Edwards 33%
Clinton 31%
Richardson 19%
Obama 9%
Biden 4%
Kucinich 2%
Gravel 1%

Following his dismal performance, Biden announces his intention to drop out of the race.  On to New Hampshire!

[DownWithTheLeft]

Just a few days before New Hampshire, Mike Bloomberg annouces that he will hold off on a decision to run for president, but he has formed an exploratory committee.  The recent changes in Iraq seem to be working and approval for the war and the president has crept up slowly to just over 40%.  New Hampshire and arrives and Romney annoints himself the favorite, many feel he could cruise to the nomination if he wins New Hampshire and Nevada.  The results are as follows:

Republicans
Thompson 29%
Romney 28%
Giuliani 23%
Huckabee 12%
Brownback 6%
Tancredo 2%

Romney comes away feeling empty handed and like he should have been able to win, though he vows he will continue to fight.  Thompson says this is a big victory and that they will carry the momentum into Nevada.  Giuliani makes a rallying speech and announces that will not give up and Super Tuesday will be there big time.

Democrats
Clinton 40%
Richardson 28%
Edwards 22%
Obama 7%
Gravel 2%
Kuicinich 1%

Obama is yet to recover from the scandal and looks unpromising.  He informs supporters that with regret he is dropping out of the race.  He will throw his support behind John Edwards.  Clinton won as expected, however, Richardson performed way above expectations.

Nevada comes next and Giuliani needs at least 2nd place to have a shot at the nod.  He is not running that well in the polls, however, he gets it:

Republicans
Romney 35%
Giuliani 30%
Thompson 28%
Huckabee 3%
Brownback 2%
Tancredo 2%

This is the performance Giuliani needed, however, Huckabee disappoints after his strong New Hampshire showing.  He drops out and supports Thompson.  Brownback also drops out and he supports Thompson as well.

Democrats
Clinton 50%
Edwards 38%
Richardson 10%
Kuicinich 1%
Gravel 1%

Clinton breaks 50% and this is huge, however, she is currently running 3rd in South Carolina and 2nd in Florida, the next stops.

South Carolina time and Thompson wins as expected:

Thompson 43%
Romney 42%
Giuliani 25%
Tancredo 5%

This is embarrasing for Giuliani, however, Super Tuesday comes up big for all:
   
Republicans:
Thompson - AL, AK, AZ, CO, IL, MO, NC, ND, OK, TN,
Romney - AR, DE, GA, ID, NM, UT
Giuliani - CA, NJ, NY
Tancredo -

   
Democrats:
Clinton - AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, DE, MO, NJ, ND, OK, TN, UT
Edwards - AL, GA, ID, IL, NC
Richardson -  NM
Gravel -
Kuicinich -

This is a very poor showing for Richardson and Giuliani.  They drop out.  Romney drops out as well saying he doesn't see the votes being there for a comeback.  So after Super Tuesday, the race is over and Thompson and Clinton will be the nominees.

[DownWithTheLeft]

It is now mid-Feb and the candidates are in full-swing ready for the general election.  For now it will be a contest between Thompson, Clinton, and Paul and the first three-way poll for the nominees is released:

Thompson 38%
Clinton 36%
Paul 6%
Undecided 20%

This shows that there is a good race and Bloomberg's entrance is still not known.  Bigger news comes in late February when VP Dick Cheney announces that he has suffered another heart attack and can no longer fulfill his duty as VP.  George W. Bush announces that will announce his appointment on March 3rd. 

March 3rd rolls around and Bush calls a nighttime press confrence to make his announcement.  It is reported that Bush is choosing between Sec. of State Condoleeza Rice, his brother Fmr. Gov. Jeb Bush, Gov. Linda Lingle, Rep. Peter King, and Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum.  Just minutes before the announcement, it is leaked that the choice is Santorum.  Santorum annonces he is glad to accept the appointment, and has no ambition of running for president.

In early April, Mike Bloomberg annouces that he will enter the 2008 race and has chosen none other than Rudy Giuliani as his running mate.  This is probably the biggest development in the race so far.  The first poll reflecting this is released:

Thompson 32%
Clinton 28%
Bloomberg 22%
Paul 8%
Undecided 10%

Thompson really has conceited the Northeast and his VP finalists reflect that, they are:
Sen. Pete Domenici, Fmr. Gov. Kelly Guinn, Fmr. Gov. Bill Owens, Gov. Tim Pawlenty, and Fmr. Gov. Tommy Thompson.

Clinton has narrowed it down to:
Sen. Joe Biden, Gov. John Lynch, Sen. Ken Salazar, Fmr. Sen. Bob Graham, Fmr. Gov. Tom Vilsack

It is now April 18th, what will happen next?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AP reports, Bloomberg will not be a candidate for president.

[DownWithTheLeft]

AP reports, Bloomberg will not be a candidate for president.

I saw that on FoxNews, however, my timeline will proceed as if Bloomberg was to enter the race.

[DownWithTheLeft]

On April 23rd, Thompson annouces his running mate to the suprise of no one it is Fmr. Gov. Bill Owens of Colorado.  Thompson says Owens is a man who shares good conservative values and a love of nature.  He says Owens brings experience and a fresh face outside of Washington to the ticket.  Two days later, Hillary annouces that her pick will be someone not originally on her list, Fmr. Vermont Gov. Howard Dean.  Hillary says he brings excitement, experience, and a winning attitude to the ticket.  Experts speculate the pick was made because Hillary is trying to move as far to left as she can.  However, Ron Paul is beginning to get name recognition and is touting himself as the true anti-war candidate.  Paul sees a huge bump in the polls as his economic views are still not known to most:

Thompson/Owens    29%
Clinton/Dean            26%
Paul/Dobbs               21%
Bloomberg/Giuliani    15%
Undecided                   9%

Many feel like Ron Paul could really sneak up and win this thing, however, the house races are turning out to be incredibly important as it looks like no matter what, the House will be choosing the next president.

May rolls around and the debates are scheduled:
9/6, 10/5, 10/30 and a VP debate on 10/16

Paul is starting to lose support as many of his supporters that were flocking to him realize his staunch conservative economic values and the fact that he is pro-life.  The bump was in part due to Lou Dobbs touting them every night on his show.  Dobbs announces his last show will be May 31st and that he will be leaving to hit the road for the campaign.

Sadness befalls Washington on May 14th when Sen. Robert Byrd of WV dies of natural causes.  Gov. Manchin appoints Alan Mollohan to the seat.  This sets up a special election in November between Mollohan and Rep. Shelley Capito Moore.

More to follow

[Robespierre's Jaw]

The Democrats would have no chance in hell with the ticket of Clinton/Dean. Especially considering there's 2 independent candidacy's and the strong GOP ticket of Thompson/Owens. I'm interested to see where this TL goes DWTL and I bet it will be a Fred Thompson landslide!

[Hash]

The Democrats would have no chance in hell with the ticket of Clinton/Dean. Especially considering there's 2 independent candidacy's and the strong GOP ticket of Thompson/Owens. I'm interested to see where this TL goes DWTL and I bet it will be a Fred Thompson landslide!

Yes, and by the end of the timeline the Democrats won't exist anymore.

[DownWithTheLeft]

The Democrats would have no chance in hell with the ticket of Clinton/Dean. Especially considering there's 2 independent candidacy's and the strong GOP ticket of Thompson/Owens. I'm interested to see where this TL goes DWTL and I bet it will be a Fred Thompson landslide!

To be honest I'm making it up as I go along and have not decided who will win, however, an outright Fred Thompson win is not exciting at all.  The reason Hillary picks Dean is because she wants to run to the left of everyone.

[DownWithTheLeft]

June 2nd rolls around and maybe the strangest surprise to come out of the election arises.  Microsoft CEO Bill Gates announces that he will seek an independent run and will spend up to $2 billion on his campaign.  Gates promotes a philosophy and social liberalism combined with a capitalist economy that needs huge cuts in welfare and more focus on private charity.  He also opposes the war and says if he can lead Microsoft he can lead the world.  He is stauncly pro-choice, anti-gun, and pro-fiscal responsiblity.  Gates chooses fellow business mogul Jeff Bezos of Amazon.com to be his VP.  Gates has an immediate impact in the race and jumps into second behind Thompson:

Thompson/Owens       24%
Gates/Bezos                23%
Bloomberg/Giuliani       22%
Clinton/Dean                13%
Paul/Dobbs                   8%
Undecided                    10%

It is absolutley anyone guess who will win as the candidates continue to go around the country.  The debates come and Thompson and Gates come out as the clear winners in the first one.  Bloomberg and Hillary do so-so and Paul has an awful performance.  Things are helped for him in the second when his performance is just as bad.  The winner of the second debate though is Gates by a clear margin.  The VP debate is next and Bezos is the surprise clear winner.  Unlike the presidential debate, all the candidates do well, and Dean really seems to fire up the crowd.  In the pivotal third debate, the media annoints Thompson the winner.  Post debate polls:

Thompson/Owens    25%
Gates/Bezos             24%
Clinton/Dean             21%
Bloomberg/Giuliani    17%
Paul/Dobbs                 3%
Undecided                  10%

Election day is now here and the results begin to flow in:

Kentucky and Indiana are the first states and they are both called for Thompson.  Florida, Georgia, Virginia, @New Hampshire, Vermont, and South Carolina close.  @Florida, Virginia, @New Hampshire and Vermont are too close to call.  Georgia and South Carolina are called for Thompson.  North Carolina, @Ohio, and Virginia are the next too close and they are all too close to call.  However, at 7:47, the state of North Carolina is called for Thompson and the state of Vermont is called for Clinton.  Next to close are Alabama, @Connecticut, DC, @Illinois, @Kansas, @Maine, Massachusetts, @Michigan, @Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, @Oklahoma, @New Jersey, @Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and @Texas.  Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee are called for Thompson.  DC and Massachusetts are called for Clinton.  The first upset of the night comes when Virginia is finally called for Gates.  What will come next?

@= not called yet

[Hash]

Go Gates!

[DownWithTheLeft]

The election goes deep into the night and when the last state it called, Ohio for Gates at 2:44 AM, the election is given to Gates in a stunning upset that no one saw coming.  His biggest strength was Bloomberg's weakness.  Final results:

Gates/Bezos               289        29%
Thompson/Owens       177       28%
Clinton/Dean                72         25%
Bloomberg/Giuliani         -          13%
Paul/Dobbs                    -           5%

Senate results and future to follow.  Hint: Gates is now starting the Coalition Party and will run candidates in 2010

[True Democrat]

Giuliani can't run with Bloomberg.  They're both from NY.

Also, why would Dobbs run with Paul?  They are completely opposite in ideology.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Giuliani can't run with Bloomberg.  They're both from NY.

Also, why would Dobbs run with Paul?  They are completely opposite in ideology.

Yeah, I forgot the whole same-state thing, but either way we'll assume Rudy carpetbagged to New Jersey in late 2007.  Paul picks doubts simply to try to gain attention and have an ideological balance to challenge the major parties.

[Gabu]

The Democrats would have no chance in hell with the ticket of Clinton/Dean. Especially considering there's 2 independent candidacy's and the strong GOP ticket of Thompson/Owens. I'm interested to see where this TL goes DWTL and I bet it will be a Fred Thompson landslide!

To be honest I'm making it up as I go along and have not decided who will win, however, an outright Fred Thompson win is not exciting at all.  The reason Hillary picks Dean is because she wants to run to the left of everyone.

The title is "Democrats Lose Badly in 2008", but you haven't decided who will win?

[DownWithTheLeft]

The Democrats would have no chance in hell with the ticket of Clinton/Dean. Especially considering there's 2 independent candidacy's and the strong GOP ticket of Thompson/Owens. I'm interested to see where this TL goes DWTL and I bet it will be a Fred Thompson landslide!

To be honest I'm making it up as I go along and have not decided who will win, however, an outright Fred Thompson win is not exciting at all.  The reason Hillary picks Dean is because she wants to run to the left of everyone.

The title is "Democrats Lose Badly in 2008", but you haven't decided who will win?

Yeah, just that the Dems would lose badly like they did

[DownWithTheLeft]

New Senators:
John Kennedy (R-LA) *pickup
Bob Schaffer (R-CO)
George Allen (R-VA) *pickup
Tom Sansonetti (R-WY)
Ed Markey (D-MA)
Tom Allen (D-ME) *pickup
Mike Rounds (R-SD) *pickup
Marc Racicot (R-MT) *pickup
Peter DeFazio (D-OR) *pickup
Jim Breuning (R-NE)

Republicans gain 2 seats in the senate making the total 51-47-2.  Kennedy handily defeats Landrieu in Lousiana.  Schaffer squeaks one out against Udall.  John Warner announces his retirement at the last minute and no big time Dems step in, so George Allen cruises to victory.  Tom Sansonetti wins the Craig Thomas special election.  Ed Markey replaces the retiring John Kerry.  Tom Allen pulls the biggest upset defeating Susan Collin 52-47.  Mike Rounds wins over Tom Daschle after Johnson decides not to run.  Racicot appeals across the board and uses Thompson's big win to cruise to victory.  DeFazio wins a nail biter against Smith in which polling had it neck and neck.  And of course, Jim Breuning defeats Chuck Hagel in the primary and a token candidate in the general 64-30.

More to follow including Gates inaguration and his first term.

[War on Want]

Ok I am sorry but this is stupid. Gates would never win. He is just too, well Corporate. Many Americans still hate the idea of corporations running America, and this just wouldn't happen.

[minionofmidas]

Ok I am sorry but this is stupid. Gates would never win. He is just too, well Corporate. Many Americans still hate the idea of corporations running America, and this just wouldn't happen.

Agreed. DWDL was just looking for some kind of deus ex machina.

[Bacon King]

The three big "WTF" moments of this timeline:

-Obama's scandal?
-Paul and Dobbs running together?
-Gates running and winning like that?