OH Primary (ECU): Dolan +2

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1768646907214143506
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1768648548625572121

14% undecided, with almost half of those leaning towards Dolan. Dolan is also the only one of the three who polls ahead of Brown in the GE.

[Mr. Smith]

If true, Dolan's gonna pull a Mike Braun and come from the shadows.

[Spectator]

Is the gay thing really what’s propelling Dolan? Dolan just seems like a horrible fit for a pretty Trumpy Republican electorate.

[2016]

Is the gay thing really what’s propelling Dolan? Dolan just seems like a horrible fit for a pretty Trumpy Republican electorate.

I don't care! I want that Senate Seat and Dolan has the best chance beating Sherrod Brown.

[Tekken_Guy]

Is the gay thing really what’s propelling Dolan? Dolan just seems like a horrible fit for a pretty Trumpy Republican electorate.

That story literally came out last night.

[Spectator]

Is the gay thing really what’s propelling Dolan? Dolan just seems like a horrible fit for a pretty Trumpy Republican electorate.

That story literally came out last night.

This primary shouldn’t even be close though is my point. Moreno should have a lot of advantage in being the only Trumpy candidate in the field.

[kwabbit]

Is the gay thing really what’s propelling Dolan? Dolan just seems like a horrible fit for a pretty Trumpy Republican electorate.

That story literally came out last night.

This primary shouldn’t even be close though is my point. Moreno should have a lot of advantage in being the only Trumpy candidate in the field.

Moreno would barely get traction otherwise. He'd be at 10% if not for the Trump endorsement.

LaRose attached himself to the abortion referendum and Issue 1 and generally tacked to the right. He lost the moderate wing in the process. LaRose generally has more clout than Moreno so even with the Trump endorsement he was able to eat into the Trumpy vote share. Dolan has the moderate lane all to himself, giving him a chance to win.

[2016]

Is the gay thing really what’s propelling Dolan? Dolan just seems like a horrible fit for a pretty Trumpy Republican electorate.

That story literally came out last night.

This primary shouldn’t even be close though is my point. Moreno should have a lot of advantage in being the only Trumpy candidate in the field.

Both, Moreno & LaRose were vying for the Trump Endorsement.

[Vosem]

Is the gay thing really what’s propelling Dolan? Dolan just seems like a horrible fit for a pretty Trumpy Republican electorate.

That story literally came out last night.

This primary shouldn’t even be close though is my point. Moreno should have a lot of advantage in being the only Trumpy candidate in the field.

Moreno is more analogous to someone like Addison McDowell in North Carolina -- someone who has not really campaigned very much and is trying to coast on a Trump endorsement. That's good enough for 25-35% or so, depending on the caliber of the rest of the field, but it usually isn't good for very much more than that.

I'm in the kind of odd position that I really do like Moreno's background, and the issue positions he staked out before being associated with Trumpworld, while I think Dolan is questionable in some important ways (particularly on guns). Moreno is questionable on Ukraine but, given his political history, I really don't think he would actually be a problem on that issue. If nobody had endorsed in this race, I would actually be pretty clearly a Moreno voter. As is I'm leaning Dolan (who I actually voted for in 2022, though not particularly enthusiastically), if only because I think the Democratic practice of trying to promote particular candidates through disingenuous campaigning is bad for, like, democracy. But I could probably still be persuaded to go for Moreno.

(I'm also basically certainly Haley in the presidential primary even though she dropped out -- makes me wonder how many people are even considering a Haley/Moreno vote )

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Is the gay thing really what’s propelling Dolan? Dolan just seems like a horrible fit for a pretty Trumpy Republican electorate.

That story literally came out last night.

This primary shouldn’t even be close though is my point. Moreno should have a lot of advantage in being the only Trumpy candidate in the field.

Moreno would barely get traction otherwise. He'd be at 10% if not for the Trump endorsement.

LaRose attached himself to the abortion referendum and Issue 1 and generally tacked to the right. He lost the moderate wing in the process. LaRose generally has more clout than Moreno so even with the Trump endorsement he was able to eat into the Trumpy vote share. Dolan has the moderate lane all to himself, giving him a chance to win.

Vance cleaned up his race immediately after getting the endorsement. Moreno is a jump ball before his scandal.

I support Dolan because I don't think Moreno is a strong candidate and I don't even want to risk losing this seat. If Tester beats Sheehy it would be because Tester himself was a strong candidate. If Moreno loses to Brown it would be because we nominated a weirdo.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not gonna post it but Dolan is up 2 in this poll against Brown

[S019]

To see Trump rebuked in a state like Ohio would definitely be great news. I’m still bot going to believe it until I see it, after I got my hopes up way too high with Haley.

[Tekken_Guy]

To see Trump rebuked in a state like Ohio would definitely be great news. I’m still bot going to believe it until I see it, after I got my hopes up way too high with Haley.

I’m starting to feel that Deep South evangelicals are Trump’s most loyal supporters rather than midwestern WWC.

[Storr]

Why is ECU suddenly polling Ohio all of a sudden? But, yeah...I can see this being accurate, with Moreno's lame "it was just a prank" explanation for the account at the center of the scandal.

[Tekken_Guy]

Why is ECU suddenly polling Ohio all of a sudden? But, yeah...I can see this being accurate, with Moreno's lame "it was just a prank" explanation for the account at the center of the scandal.

I’ll believe Moreno losing when I see it. Never bet against a Trump endorsement.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

To see Trump rebuked in a state like Ohio would definitely be great news. I’m still bot going to believe it until I see it, after I got my hopes up way too high with Haley.

I’m starting to feel that Deep South evangelicals are Trump’s most loyal supporters rather than midwestern WWC.

Midwestern WWC were Vance's best demographic in 2022 primary and probably will be Moreno's too

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Going to be off by 20 points.