State Leg ratings for 2024?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not that engaged but just looking at 2022 results, the maps, and what's up these would be my ratings:



The state fill is the upper chamber while the small bubble is the rating for the lower chamber. I just filled in states that don't have legislature up in 2024 as safe for the current party. Also AK and NE are blank due to the complicated technicalities; NE only has one chamber and is nonpartisan, but effectively an R majority is basically guaranteed. In AK you have weird coalitions and a lot of Independents; even if Rs technically win majority of seats doesn't mean they will actually be the majority caucus.

Overall, really doesn't seem to be many competative chambers up; lower house of MI/WI/PA, upper house of MN, both chambers in AZ, and as always NH.

[Tekken_Guy]

Not that engaged but just looking at 2022 results, the maps, and what's up these would be my ratings:



The state fill is the upper chamber while the small bubble is the rating for the lower chamber. I just filled in states that don't have legislature up in 2024 as safe for the current party. Also AK and NE are blank due to the complicated technicalities; NE only has one chamber and is nonpartisan, but effectively an R majority is basically guaranteed. In AK you have weird coalitions and a lot of Independents; even if Rs technically win majority of seats doesn't mean they will actually be the majority caucus.

Overall, really doesn't seem to be many competative chambers up; lower house of MI/WI/PA, upper house of MN, both chambers in AZ, and as always NH.

Michigan should be Tilt D just like PA.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not that engaged but just looking at 2022 results, the maps, and what's up these would be my ratings:



The state fill is the upper chamber while the small bubble is the rating for the lower chamber. I just filled in states that don't have legislature up in 2024 as safe for the current party. Also AK and NE are blank due to the complicated technicalities; NE only has one chamber and is nonpartisan, but effectively an R majority is basically guaranteed. In AK you have weird coalitions and a lot of Independents; even if Rs technically win majority of seats doesn't mean they will actually be the majority caucus.

Overall, really doesn't seem to be many competative chambers up; lower house of MI/WI/PA, upper house of MN, both chambers in AZ, and as always NH.

Michigan should be Tilt D just like PA.

Yeah MI was the hardest for me; my tilt R rating ultimately came down to the fact that there are quite a few Trump district Ds and 2022 turnout patterns seemed uniquely favorable to Dems in the state. Only like 2 Biden district Rs. The new MI State House map still has a majority of districts that voted for Trump in 2020.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not that engaged but just looking at 2022 results, the maps, and what's up these would be my ratings:



The state fill is the upper chamber while the small bubble is the rating for the lower chamber.

Then Minnesota should be dark blue as the upper chamber isn't even at all.

[Tekken_Guy]

Not that engaged but just looking at 2022 results, the maps, and what's up these would be my ratings:



The state fill is the upper chamber while the small bubble is the rating for the lower chamber. I just filled in states that don't have legislature up in 2024 as safe for the current party. Also AK and NE are blank due to the complicated technicalities; NE only has one chamber and is nonpartisan, but effectively an R majority is basically guaranteed. In AK you have weird coalitions and a lot of Independents; even if Rs technically win majority of seats doesn't mean they will actually be the majority caucus.

Overall, really doesn't seem to be many competative chambers up; lower house of MI/WI/PA, upper house of MN, both chambers in AZ, and as always NH.

Michigan should be Tilt D just like PA.

Yeah MI was the hardest for me; my tilt R rating ultimately came down to the fact that there are quite a few Trump district Ds and 2022 turnout patterns seemed uniquely favorable to Dems in the state. Only like 2 Biden district Rs. The new MI State House map still has a majority of districts that voted for Trump in 2020.

Will those Trump D’s be easier to unseat than the Biden R’s though?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not that engaged but just looking at 2022 results, the maps, and what's up these would be my ratings:



The state fill is the upper chamber while the small bubble is the rating for the lower chamber.

Then Minnesota should be dark blue as the upper chamber isn't even at all.

Oops my bad.

Sidenote but I feel like it's underrated how in the long term the GOP is going to struggle to win back majorities in MN legislature. Dems can win majorities now with just urban+suburban MSP seats, and most of the marginal suburban seats are zooming left. Basically, all of the GOP's recent gains have been in rural MN where they've flipped nearly everything that's going to flip, and some of the deep blue urban parts of MSP which aren't flipping anytime soon.

At the same time, it'll be hard for Dems to win very large majorities unless they actually start winning back rural MN.

Sort of ironic how MN used to be one of those states with a ton of swingy areas, but this decade I expect the state the end up with very few actually competitive state legislative seats because of the increasing urban-rural divide and the relative lack of other cities/small towns outside MSP that could sustain swing seats

[Spectator]

Arizona seems to have a decent bit of downballot lag in non-statewide races. I wouldn’t expect it to flip til a Republican midterm. Georgia’s chambers are still both Safe R for at least a couple cycles.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Arizona seems to have a decent bit of downballot lag in non-statewide races. I wouldn’t expect it to flip til a Republican midterm. Georgia’s chambers are still both Safe R for at least a couple cycles.

It seems like a lot of that downballot lag eroded in 2022 though; Dems came remarkably close in both chambers including in Trump-won seats they didn't contest. Also Christine Marsh unseating an R incumbent in Biden + 1 LD-04 was genuinely impressive. In hindsight not taking LD-17 seriously and just letting Wadsack win was a huge mistake, but someone like her should be defeatable in 2024. Also don't know why they didn't seriously contest LD-13 given it was a Biden won seat with pretty favorable demographics to Dems.

In the long term, geography might be a problem for AZ Rs; other than LD-23, basically all the competitive seats are shifting left (LD-2, LD-4, LD-13, LD-16, LD-17, LD-27). For instance Hobbs who won statewide by a simillar margin to Biden also carried LD-02 and LD-17 in addition to all the Biden 2020 seats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Both Garza and Collier carried HD-112 in TX; a seat that voted for Trump in 2020, Cruz in 2018, and so on. Collier also outran Biden in HD-20, HD-96, HD-97, HH-99, and HD-108; all marginal suburban Trump seats that could be key to any Dem majority. This should really scare the GOP.

Don't think Dems flip the TX leg in 2024, largely because they don't seem to be taking it all that seriously, but this is why I think they have very good chance in the near future.

[Tekken_Guy]

Both Garza and Collier carried HD-112 in TX; a seat that voted for Trump in 2020, Cruz in 2018, and so on. Collier also outran Biden in HD-20, HD-96, HD-97, HH-99, and HD-108; all marginal suburban Trump seats that could be key to any Dem majority. This should really scare the GOP.

Don't think Dems flip the TX leg in 2024, largely because they don't seem to be taking it all that seriously, but this is why I think they have very good chance in the near future.

There are a lot of potential flips. Bexar has a Biden seat and a narrow Trump seat, plus another Trump seat that will probably come on the board over time. Tarrant, Colllin and Denton have seats that Trump won by either single or low double digits that could soon be on the board. There are two future pickup opportunities in Harris, two in Fort Bend, and two in Williamson.

There are a couple of border seats that Dems could have trouble in soon though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Both Garza and Collier carried HD-112 in TX; a seat that voted for Trump in 2020, Cruz in 2018, and so on. Collier also outran Biden in HD-20, HD-96, HD-97, HH-99, and HD-108; all marginal suburban Trump seats that could be key to any Dem majority. This should really scare the GOP.

Don't think Dems flip the TX leg in 2024, largely because they don't seem to be taking it all that seriously, but this is why I think they have very good chance in the near future.

There are a lot of potential flips. Bexar has a Biden seat and a narrow Trump seat, plus another Trump seat that will probably come on the board over time. Tarrant, Colllin and Denton have seats that Trump won by either single or low double digits that could soon be on the board. There are two future pickup opportunities in Harris, two in Fort Bend, and two in Williamson.

There are a couple of border seats that Dems could have trouble in soon though.

If you give all the Biden seats and every suburban seat Trump won by <20% in 2020 to Dems, Dems would have 99-51 majority lol. if you just do Trump<10%, Dems would still have an 82-68 majority.

On this map, dark blue is currently held by Dems, medium blue is R held by less than Trump+10 (or Biden won), and light blue is less than Trump+20. Note I threw HD-80 to Rs; only Trump + 4 but the trends there are brutal for Dems, though they actually have a decent recruit for 2024 in Cueller's sister and may be able to hold it for a bit longer.

There are a few potentially vulnerable seats for Dems; a few of the narrower Biden RGV seats, the Corpus Cristi seat, a heavily Hispanic east Houston seat, and possible the Beaumont seat, but they should be favored to hold most if not all of these for the decade as long as they don't completely drop the ball; Dems held these seats pretty easily in 2022.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Smtg like this is probably the path of least resistance if Dems wanted to flip the chamber in 2024; uphill battle but not impossible, and there are quite a few other realistic pickup opportunities beyond the ones shown on this map.

[Dan the Roman]

Both Garza and Collier carried HD-112 in TX; a seat that voted for Trump in 2020, Cruz in 2018, and so on. Collier also outran Biden in HD-20, HD-96, HD-97, HH-99, and HD-108; all marginal suburban Trump seats that could be key to any Dem majority. This should really scare the GOP.

Don't think Dems flip the TX leg in 2024, largely because they don't seem to be taking it all that seriously, but this is why I think they have very good chance in the near future.

Another way of looking at this is that if Democrats won every seat they lost by less than 10% in 2022 you would have a 83-67 GOP majority. The same one from 2018 and 2020.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Both Garza and Collier carried HD-112 in TX; a seat that voted for Trump in 2020, Cruz in 2018, and so on. Collier also outran Biden in HD-20, HD-96, HD-97, HH-99, and HD-108; all marginal suburban Trump seats that could be key to any Dem majority. This should really scare the GOP.

Don't think Dems flip the TX leg in 2024, largely because they don't seem to be taking it all that seriously, but this is why I think they have very good chance in the near future.

Another way of looking at this is that if Democrats won every seat they lost by less than 10% in 2022 you would have a 83-67 GOP majority. The same one from 2018 and 2020.

That's largely because Dems didn't run serious campaigns for these state leg seats like at all. We saw something similar in 2016 where seats sacrificial Dems lost by 15% became Dem wins in 2018 when they actually took them seriously. Heck, in 2016 Dems didn't even run a candidate in many of the seats that ultimately flipped in 2018. Like Dems didn't even field a candidate for TX-32 US House in 2016 which in hindsight is insane given Clinton won the district.

[Spectator]

Arizona seems to have a decent bit of downballot lag in non-statewide races. I wouldn’t expect it to flip til a Republican midterm. Georgia’s chambers are still both Safe R for at least a couple cycles.

It seems like a lot of that downballot lag eroded in 2022 though; Dems came remarkably close in both chambers including in Trump-won seats they didn't contest. Also Christine Marsh unseating an R incumbent in Biden + 1 LD-04 was genuinely impressive. In hindsight not taking LD-17 seriously and just letting Wadsack win was a huge mistake, but someone like her should be defeatable in 2024. Also don't know why they didn't seriously contest LD-13 given it was a Biden won seat with pretty favorable demographics to Dems.

In the long term, geography might be a problem for AZ Rs; other than LD-23, basically all the competitive seats are shifting left (LD-2, LD-4, LD-13, LD-16, LD-17, LD-27). For instance Hobbs who won statewide by a simillar margin to Biden also carried LD-02 and LD-17 in addition to all the Biden 2020 seats.

AZ Dems in the legislature still underperformed the top of the ticket. Hobbs won 17/30 LDs, and Kelly/Fontes won more I believe. Either way, some of that was likely due to the uniquely bad statewide GOP slate where maybe some otherwise Republican voters voted Dem in those races. I don’t think the AZ legislature flips until 2026 either way if Trump is in office.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think this is a good realistic goal for TX Dems in 2024 - flipping at least 5/7 of these would be a solid performance, and would keep the GOP on their heels.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think this is a good realistic goal for TX Dems in 2024 - flipping at least 5/7 of these would be a solid performance, and would keep the GOP on their heels.

I wonder if the GOP goes for mid-decade redistricting if that’s the case and sink some of the seats they’ve lost in order to shore up potentially vulnerable neighboring seats (for example, if they lose HD-63 in Collin County they turn it into a Dem sink to protect HD-65, or sacrificing HD-52 to protect HD-20)?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think this is a good realistic goal for TX Dems in 2024 - flipping at least 5/7 of these would be a solid performance, and would keep the GOP on their heels.

I wonder if the GOP goes for mid-decade redistricting if that’s the case and sink some of the seats they’ve lost in order to shore up potentially vulnerable neighboring seats (for example, if they lose HD-63 in Collin County they turn it into a Dem sink to protect HD-65, or sacrificing HD-52 to protect HD-20)?

Yeah I've thought about this too - the issue is there are already 65 seats that voted for Biden, so by ceding additional sinks you're getting Democrats notably closer to a majority, so the benefit in actually shoring up the GOP is pretty small but the chance of a dysfunctional 77R-73D type situation icnreases.



Here is a map of all the cases where the GOP could cede a Dem sink (light blue) in exchange for shoring up an R-leaning seat (light red) to make it practically unwinnable for Dems this decade. As you can see above, the GOP could make it theoretically pretty hard for Dems to win a majority if they ceded 74 Biden won seats, but Dems are just 1 seat away from tying the chamber then. Ceding more seats gives Dems a really high floor.

You also have a few liabilities that are impossible to shore up due to the County rules like the 2 north Dallas seats, the 2 Bell County seats, the College Station seat, ect.

I think the GOP's best hope is that the border communities keep swinging hard right, and they start to actually be able to pick off a decent number of the seats in Hidalgo County and such.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think this is a good realistic goal for TX Dems in 2024 - flipping at least 5/7 of these would be a solid performance, and would keep the GOP on their heels.

I wonder if the GOP goes for mid-decade redistricting if that’s the case and sink some of the seats they’ve lost in order to shore up potentially vulnerable neighboring seats (for example, if they lose HD-63 in Collin County they turn it into a Dem sink to protect HD-65, or sacrificing HD-52 to protect HD-20)?

Yeah I've thought about this too - the issue is there are already 65 seats that voted for Biden, so by ceding additional sinks you're getting Democrats notably closer to a majority, so the benefit in actually shoring up the GOP is pretty small but the chance of a dysfunctional 77R-73D type situation icnreases.



Here is a map of all the cases where the GOP could cede a Dem sink (light blue) in exchange for shoring up an R-leaning seat (light red) to make it practically unwinnable for Dems this decade. As you can see above, the GOP could make it theoretically pretty hard for Dems to win a majority if they ceded 74 Biden won seats, but Dems are just 1 seat away from tying the chamber then. Ceding more seats gives Dems a really high floor.

You also have a few liabilities that are impossible to shore up due to the County rules like the 2 north Dallas seats, the 2 Bell County seats, the College Station seat, ect.

I think the GOP's best hope is that the border communities keep swinging hard right, and they start to actually be able to pick off a decent number of the seats in Hidalgo County and such.

I think the GOP could also make some other changes to offset like making the large border seat east of El Paso R-leaning or cutting the Beaumont seat (though the latter could run into VRA violations).

Also I’m wondering how this could be done in the state senate?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think this is a good realistic goal for TX Dems in 2024 - flipping at least 5/7 of these would be a solid performance, and would keep the GOP on their heels.

I wonder if the GOP goes for mid-decade redistricting if that’s the case and sink some of the seats they’ve lost in order to shore up potentially vulnerable neighboring seats (for example, if they lose HD-63 in Collin County they turn it into a Dem sink to protect HD-65, or sacrificing HD-52 to protect HD-20)?

Yeah I've thought about this too - the issue is there are already 65 seats that voted for Biden, so by ceding additional sinks you're getting Democrats notably closer to a majority, so the benefit in actually shoring up the GOP is pretty small but the chance of a dysfunctional 77R-73D type situation icnreases.



Here is a map of all the cases where the GOP could cede a Dem sink (light blue) in exchange for shoring up an R-leaning seat (light red) to make it practically unwinnable for Dems this decade. As you can see above, the GOP could make it theoretically pretty hard for Dems to win a majority if they ceded 74 Biden won seats, but Dems are just 1 seat away from tying the chamber then. Ceding more seats gives Dems a really high floor.

You also have a few liabilities that are impossible to shore up due to the County rules like the 2 north Dallas seats, the 2 Bell County seats, the College Station seat, ect.

I think the GOP's best hope is that the border communities keep swinging hard right, and they start to actually be able to pick off a decent number of the seats in Hidalgo County and such.

I think the GOP could also make some other changes to offset like making the large border seat east of El Paso R-leaning or cutting the Beaumont seat (though the latter could run into VRA violations).

Also I’m wondering how this could be done in the state senate?

Ye cutting Beaumont would likely backfire in Court and the El-Paso rurals seat can’t really bad made much redder; it already takes in some of the least D precincts in eastern El-Paso County. Long term that seat might trend to the GOP anyways though..

The State Senate gerrymander is far more secure, so the GOP was pretty friendly to Dems with the border seats.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I think this is a good realistic goal for TX Dems in 2024 - flipping at least 5/7 of these would be a solid performance, and would keep the GOP on their heels.

I wonder if the GOP goes for mid-decade redistricting if that’s the case and sink some of the seats they’ve lost in order to shore up potentially vulnerable neighboring seats (for example, if they lose HD-63 in Collin County they turn it into a Dem sink to protect HD-65, or sacrificing HD-52 to protect HD-20)?

Yeah I've thought about this too - the issue is there are already 65 seats that voted for Biden, so by ceding additional sinks you're getting Democrats notably closer to a majority, so the benefit in actually shoring up the GOP is pretty small but the chance of a dysfunctional 77R-73D type situation icnreases.

Here is a map of all the cases where the GOP could cede a Dem sink (light blue) in exchange for shoring up an R-leaning seat (light red) to make it practically unwinnable for Dems this decade. As you can see above, the GOP could make it theoretically pretty hard for Dems to win a majority if they ceded 74 Biden won seats, but Dems are just 1 seat away from tying the chamber then. Ceding more seats gives Dems a really high floor.

You also have a few liabilities that are impossible to shore up due to the County rules like the 2 north Dallas seats, the 2 Bell County seats, the College Station seat, ect.

I think the GOP's best hope is that the border communities keep swinging hard right, and they start to actually be able to pick off a decent number of the seats in Hidalgo County and such.

I think the GOP could also make some other changes to offset like making the large border seat east of El Paso R-leaning or cutting the Beaumont seat (though the latter could run into VRA violations).

Also I’m wondering how this could be done in the state senate?

Ye cutting Beaumont would likely backfire in Court and the El-Paso rurals seat can’t really bad made much redder; it already takes in some of the least D precincts in eastern El-Paso County. Long term that seat might trend to the GOP anyways though..

The State Senate gerrymander is far more secure, so the GOP was pretty friendly to Dems with the border seats.

Something important to remember for Texas is if state legislative boundaries are not enacted by the legislature during the regular session, the Legislative Redistricting Board, consisting of the lieutenant governor, speaker of the House, attorney general, comptroller, and land commissioner, will pass its own plan, not subject to the governor's veto. There is no such thing as a divided legislature punting to a court special master. The Texas legislature will always have a very partisan map.

Depending on GOP grip on state row officers, this could either really help counterract a Democratic State House, or quickly entrench Democratic strength.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think this is a good realistic goal for TX Dems in 2024 - flipping at least 5/7 of these would be a solid performance, and would keep the GOP on their heels.

I wonder if the GOP goes for mid-decade redistricting if that’s the case and sink some of the seats they’ve lost in order to shore up potentially vulnerable neighboring seats (for example, if they lose HD-63 in Collin County they turn it into a Dem sink to protect HD-65, or sacrificing HD-52 to protect HD-20)?

Yeah I've thought about this too - the issue is there are already 65 seats that voted for Biden, so by ceding additional sinks you're getting Democrats notably closer to a majority, so the benefit in actually shoring up the GOP is pretty small but the chance of a dysfunctional 77R-73D type situation icnreases.

Here is a map of all the cases where the GOP could cede a Dem sink (light blue) in exchange for shoring up an R-leaning seat (light red) to make it practically unwinnable for Dems this decade. As you can see above, the GOP could make it theoretically pretty hard for Dems to win a majority if they ceded 74 Biden won seats, but Dems are just 1 seat away from tying the chamber then. Ceding more seats gives Dems a really high floor.

You also have a few liabilities that are impossible to shore up due to the County rules like the 2 north Dallas seats, the 2 Bell County seats, the College Station seat, ect.

I think the GOP's best hope is that the border communities keep swinging hard right, and they start to actually be able to pick off a decent number of the seats in Hidalgo County and such.

I think the GOP could also make some other changes to offset like making the large border seat east of El Paso R-leaning or cutting the Beaumont seat (though the latter could run into VRA violations).

Also I’m wondering how this could be done in the state senate?

Ye cutting Beaumont would likely backfire in Court and the El-Paso rurals seat can’t really bad made much redder; it already takes in some of the least D precincts in eastern El-Paso County. Long term that seat might trend to the GOP anyways though..

The State Senate gerrymander is far more secure, so the GOP was pretty friendly to Dems with the border seats.

Something important to remember for Texas is if state legislative boundaries are not enacted by the legislature during the regular session, the Legislative Redistricting Board, consisting of the lieutenant governor, speaker of the House, attorney general, comptroller, and land commissioner, will pass its own plan, not subject to the governor's veto. There is no such thing as a divided legislature punting to a court special master. The Texas legislature will always have a very partisan map.

Depending on GOP grip on state row officers, this could either really help counterract a Democratic State House, or quickly entrench Democratic strength.

This is a good point too, and is a large part of the reason why these row offices are so important.