MI Qpac - Trump +3

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3893

Trump - 48
Biden - 45

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1768337047452860534

[Redban]

RFK Jr has almost 35k signatures right now for Michigan (Requirement is 30k). He will be there in Michigan

West won't be there, though. But even if you suppose an extremely favorable scenario where West's supporters break 80% for Biden (and 20% for RFK /Stein), it's still Trump +2-3%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So they have Biden leads by 4 but has Trump lead in MI by 3 not IPSOS has Biden leading overall I stick with that not buying these states by state polls anymore

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RFK Jr has almost 35k signatures right now for Michigan (Requirement is 30k). He will be there in Michigan

West won't be there, though. But even if you suppose an extremely favorable scenario where West's supporters break 80% for Biden (and 20% for RFK /Stein), it's still Trump +2-3%

Lol.its just a poll MOE Trump lost MI, I keep telling you wait for the votes and R being up 3 can be erased in a Turnout Eday

[2016]

RFK Jr has almost 35k signatures right now for Michigan (Requirement is 30k). He will be there in Michigan

West won't be there, though. But even if you suppose an extremely favorable scenario where West's supporters break 80% for Biden (and 20% for RFK /Stein), it's still Trump +2-3%

What's happening with all the Polls coming out even after SOTU has to be concerning for Biden!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RFK Jr has almost 35k signatures right now for Michigan (Requirement is 30k). He will be there in Michigan

West won't be there, though. But even if you suppose an extremely favorable scenario where West's supporters break 80% for Biden (and 20% for RFK /Stein), it's still Trump +2-3%

What's happening with all the Polls coming out even after SOTU has to be concerning for Biden!

How much is R lead by 3 it's 300 K votes I think Biden can erase a 300 K vote Trump lead by increase Turnout in Dtw burbs

On Act blue IT SAYS IN FUNDRAISER BIDEN ISNT WORRIED ABOUT POLLS BUT ANXIOUS ABOUT VOTED, that's why Ds are still donating

We saw Ds turnout in CA skyrocket on 3/5 and IL his base will turnout for Biden where my sister at on 3/19

[heatcharger]

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Another SOTU surge for Biden !

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

We know from the vastly superior poll of just Blacks that Trump is only at 8% with Michigan Blacks. If you adjusted this 12% of the electorate down by 10 points, Trump is 1.2% lower, and then Biden is at least 1.2% higher - so it's almost a tie before we even address the absurd Trump lead with young voters who pollsters aren't reaching - not to mention that Trump has done nothing to make inroads with women since overturning abortion and being liable for sexual assault.


Honestly, it's just great that Biden is up 19 points with seniors. No cracks in the union pensioner coalition.

[Tekken_Guy]

Biden’s only at 68% with black voters here. He’s at 80% in other Qpac polls (National + PA)

[DK_Mo82]

Quinipiac is usually nice to Dems this is not a good poll for Joe, at 43% with whites still losing, hard to fathom but prob true.

[Eraserhead]

Stein and West at a combined 7% is wild. Obviously not happening but clearly there are quite a few left-leaning folks in the Midwest who aren't crazy about Joe.

[Devils30]

Biden up 19 with 65+ but down double digits with under 50. Face it, the topline could be correct but these polls are having a lot of issues. There is no way this is the manner Trump wins Michigan and pollsters are likely having systemic problems.

That said, the Dems are seeing what happens when the monster turns on them. For years they have cultivated this worldview among young people that America is a terrible racist country (which goes hand in hand with the Israel as oppressor stuff). As a result, quite a few under 30's now seek Stalinist type candidates in the same manner MAGA right seeks fascists.

[DrScholl]

Polls are crappy, period. The crosstabs say one thing but the top lines don't match. I'll keep extrapolating from real results.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Stein and West at a combined 7% is wild. Obviously not happening but clearly there are quite a few left-leaning folks in the Midwest who aren't crazy about Joe.

The inclusion of them really makes me think that RFK Jr hurts Trump more.

[Tekken_Guy]

No way this is right and the Biden+4 national/+3 PA at the same time.

[wbrocks67]

No way this is right and the Biden+4 national/+3 PA at the same time.

Yeah the weirdest part lol how are they getting Biden +4 nationally but Trump +3 in MI

[President Johnson]

No way this is right and the Biden+4 national/+3 PA at the same time.

Yeah the weirdest part lol how are they getting Biden +4 nationally but Trump +3 in MI

Or maybe Michigan is his weakest state of the Rust Belt Trio, even though it seems hard to believe. Yeah, polling is a mess right now. Michigan polling has always been weird in particular.

[Tekken_Guy]

No way this is right and the Biden+4 national/+3 PA at the same time.

Yeah the weirdest part lol how are they getting Biden +4 nationally but Trump +3 in MI

Or maybe Michigan is his weakest state of the Rust Belt Trio, even though it seems hard to believe. Yeah, polling is a mess right now. Michigan polling has always been weird in particular.

It could, but probably not to the point it’s voting seven points right of the NPV. It’s hard to see it vote to the right of WI in particular.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

No way this is right and the Biden+4 national/+3 PA at the same time.

Yeah the weirdest part lol how are they getting Biden +4 nationally but Trump +3 in MI

Or maybe Michigan is his weakest state of the Rust Belt Trio, even though it seems hard to believe. Yeah, polling is a mess right now. Michigan polling has always been weird in particular.

It could, but probably not to the point it’s voting seven points right of the NPV. It’s hard to see it vote to the right of WI in particular.

It’s possible Biden’s SOTU, the worsening economy, and the realization that Biden and Trump will be the nominee has hurt him nationally too compared to last month.

[Ljube]

Quinnipiac is a bad pollster.
I don't understand why we would waste our time discussing their numbers.

They had Biden+11 in November 2020.

[wbrocks67]

The white/nonwhite crosstab is just getting too on the nose at this point, it's too consistent. More often than not, Biden is at or exceeding his numbers with white voters on a consistent basis, and the same with underperforming with black voters. Neither are reality imo.

[Tekken_Guy]

The white/nonwhite crosstab is just getting too on the nose at this point, it's too consistent. More often than not, Biden is at or exceeding his numbers with white voters on a consistent basis, and the same with underperforming with black voters. Neither are reality imo.

In the recent national and PA polls, Biden’s getting much more reasonable 80%+ shares with blacks which are in line with typical QPac polls, whereas in this one he’s at 69%. Unless Biden has a unique problem with Michigan’s black voters that we don’t see elsewhere there are reasons to doubt this poll

[Annatar]

Seems pretty clear to me like 2020 polling is underestimating Trump with older voters and non college whites, remember how well Biden was doing with older voters and non college whites in 2020 in the polls, in the end he gained only a little bit with older voters. Conversely Trump is unlikely to go over 14% of the black vote, either in MI or in other states.

I think Trump does worse with black voters than the polls say but better with old voters and perhaps non college whites.