State of the States: Indiana

[Cayahougac]

State of the States: Indiana

Pop: 6.79 Million
Voting Pop: 5.1 Million
EV: 11
Rating: Safe GOP
Past Winners: 2020 Trump, 2016 Trump, 2012 Romney, 2008 Obama
Summary:
When Indiana narrowly voted for President Obama in 2008 many thought the trends that led to his victory could bolster democrats standings in future contests. But instead of trending away from its long cultural and electoral history the Hoozier state fell safely into Republicans hands not 4 years later, as Obama's campaign abandoned contesting the state in vain. since then, demographic trends have only moved away from Democrats. In 2020 Biden was polling within 10% consistently, only to lose by 16%. Unlike its Rust-Belt neighbours, Indiana is still majority Whites without College degrees, which both explains why 2008 was both the first and last time a democrat could compete here nationally in modern history. Althought thier may be some light at the end of the tunnel on that front. the big picture is Indiana will be red and stay red for the forseeable future.

Counties to watch: Allen County, Hamilton County, Tippecanoe County
As I previously mentioned there is positive trends for Democrats to at least begin to get optimistic and they start in a place like Hamilton County, whose largest city Carmel is a growing and affluent suburb of Indiannapolis (longstanding former Mayor James Brainard, a staunchly moderate Republican who funded Arts initiatives and was appointed to an Obama Climate task force) Perfectly encapsulates the politics of the Region. Biden recieved the highest share of vote for a democrat in the counties history at 45% and he netted 30k more votes than Hillary Clinton in 2016, if trends hold Biden has a great chance at winning the county outright come 2024. A similar dynamic exists in Allen County, home to Fort Wayne, a growing city in the Northeast region that voted for both Obama and Trump respectivly. As for Republicans a Potential area of opprotunity in the state is "Michiana" a economically Stagnant Post Industrial region of the state and home to South Bend that has been competive in recent elections but would appear to be demographically ripe for a Trump-Like candidate. Tippecanoe County, Home of Purdue University just barely flipped to Joe Biden in 2020 and his margin here should increase as it did in similar University or College Counties in the Midwest/Northeast (Champaign County IL, Centre County, PA)

Down Ballot Races: Few States as large as Indiana have as few competitive CD's, this is in part due to how the districts are drawn but even a more competitive map for democrats would likely only create one more competitive seat. as it currently stands only the 1st CD is at all contested, and in the senate Mike Braun will be retiring in order to run for governor. as it stands his Replacement is very likely to keep his seat in GOP hands.