Fox: PA Trump +2 AZ Trump +4

[Cyrusman]

It's funny to look back at Fox's late 2022 polls in PA and AZ, they showed similar issues to what we're looking at now. Fox's last PA poll had Fetterman only winning nonwhites 49-31, even worse than Biden here, and we know that's not the case.

The biggest thing for me is the party ID; Fox's last AZ poll had Kelly up 2 overall, winning Indies by 18.

Biden wins indies here by 14, so rather close. And they both got similar partisan support (Kelly a tiny bit more Rs but negligible), but b/c party ID so different, Kelly was up 2 overall, but Biden is down 4. That stuff does make a difference!

Also no wonder the 2020 polls were off so bad, the party IDs in the 2020 Fox polls for example by comparison were crazy. PA was like D+8, AZ was like D+3. No wonder they had Biden up a ton.

Fox last poll for the 2022 senate in PA had Fetterman +4. Oz never led one Fox News poll and neither did Blake Masters.

[wbrocks67]

It's funny to look back at Fox's late 2022 polls in PA and AZ, they showed similar issues to what we're looking at now. Fox's last PA poll had Fetterman only winning nonwhites 49-31, even worse than Biden here, and we know that's not the case.

The biggest thing for me is the party ID; Fox's last AZ poll had Kelly up 2 overall, winning Indies by 18.

Biden wins indies here by 14, so rather close. And they both got similar partisan support (Kelly a tiny bit more Rs but negligible), but b/c party ID so different, Kelly was up 2 overall, but Biden is down 4. That stuff does make a difference!

Also no wonder the 2020 polls were off so bad, the party IDs in the 2020 Fox polls for example by comparison were crazy. PA was like D+8, AZ was like D+3. No wonder they had Biden up a ton.

Fox last poll for the 2022 senate in PA had Fetterman +4. Oz never led one Fox News poll and neither did Blake Masters.

Literally never said they did?

[DaleCooper]

It's funny to look back at Fox's late 2022 polls in PA and AZ, they showed similar issues to what we're looking at now. Fox's last PA poll had Fetterman only winning nonwhites 49-31, even worse than Biden here, and we know that's not the case.

The biggest thing for me is the party ID; Fox's last AZ poll had Kelly up 2 overall, winning Indies by 18.

Biden wins indies here by 14, so rather close. And they both got similar partisan support (Kelly a tiny bit more Rs but negligible), but b/c party ID so different, Kelly was up 2 overall, but Biden is down 4. That stuff does make a difference!

Also no wonder the 2020 polls were off so bad, the party IDs in the 2020 Fox polls for example by comparison were crazy. PA was like D+8, AZ was like D+3. No wonder they had Biden up a ton.

Fox last poll for the 2022 senate in PA had Fetterman +4. Oz never led one Fox News poll and neither did Blake Masters.

Literally never said they did?

Wasn't just Fox. There were a ton of polls indicating massive Republican gains with minorities and African Americans in particular. These polls were thrown down the memory hole to give the narrative more credibility this year.

[Annatar]

It's funny to look back at Fox's late 2022 polls in PA and AZ, they showed similar issues to what we're looking at now. Fox's last PA poll had Fetterman only winning nonwhites 49-31, even worse than Biden here, and we know that's not the case.

The biggest thing for me is the party ID; Fox's last AZ poll had Kelly up 2 overall, winning Indies by 18.

Biden wins indies here by 14, so rather close. And they both got similar partisan support (Kelly a tiny bit more Rs but negligible), but b/c party ID so different, Kelly was up 2 overall, but Biden is down 4. That stuff does make a difference!

Also no wonder the 2020 polls were off so bad, the party IDs in the 2020 Fox polls for example by comparison were crazy. PA was like D+8, AZ was like D+3. No wonder they had Biden up a ton.

Fox last poll for the 2022 senate in PA had Fetterman +4. Oz never led one Fox News poll and neither did Blake Masters.

Literally never said they did?

Wasn't just Fox. There were a ton of polls indicating massive Republican gains with minorities and African Americans in particular. These polls were thrown down the memory hole to give the narrative more credibility this year.

There were very big swings among Hispanic voters and to a lesser extent black voters in 2022 though. The popular vote went from D+4.5 to around R+2 adjusting for uncontested seats in 2022, a 6.5% swing driven by large shifts in Hispanic voters primarily and to a lesser extent other groups such as black voters, non college whites and college whites.

Look at the Hispanic seats in LA county, a lot of them had double digit swings as Hispanics shifted Republican.

If all Trump does is repeat 2022, he will win both the popular vote and the electoral college as the GOP won the house vote in states like WI and PA adjusting for uncontested seats.

[DaleCooper]

It's funny to look back at Fox's late 2022 polls in PA and AZ, they showed similar issues to what we're looking at now. Fox's last PA poll had Fetterman only winning nonwhites 49-31, even worse than Biden here, and we know that's not the case.

The biggest thing for me is the party ID; Fox's last AZ poll had Kelly up 2 overall, winning Indies by 18.

Biden wins indies here by 14, so rather close. And they both got similar partisan support (Kelly a tiny bit more Rs but negligible), but b/c party ID so different, Kelly was up 2 overall, but Biden is down 4. That stuff does make a difference!

Also no wonder the 2020 polls were off so bad, the party IDs in the 2020 Fox polls for example by comparison were crazy. PA was like D+8, AZ was like D+3. No wonder they had Biden up a ton.

Fox last poll for the 2022 senate in PA had Fetterman +4. Oz never led one Fox News poll and neither did Blake Masters.

Literally never said they did?

Wasn't just Fox. There were a ton of polls indicating massive Republican gains with minorities and African Americans in particular. These polls were thrown down the memory hole to give the narrative more credibility this year.

There were very big swings among Hispanic voters and to a lesser extent black voters in 2022 though. The popular vote went from D+4.5 to around R+2 adjusting for uncontested seats in 2022, a 6.5% swing driven by large shifts in Hispanic voters primarily and to a lesser extent other groups such as black voters, non college whites and college whites.

Look at the Hispanic seats in LA county, a lot of them had double digit swings as Hispanics shifted Republican.

If all Trump does is repeat 2022, he will win both the popular vote and the electoral college as the GOP won the house vote in states like WI and PA adjusting for uncontested seats.

No-name house candidates are not good comparisons to him. Mentally ill Republicans running statewide did terrible in 2022, even with a more conservative electorate than 2020.