Civiqs: Biden +1

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Civiqs/status/1767986714981839287

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Biden+1 seems reasonable but both at/below 45 does not.

[The Mikado]

This is vs 44-44 last month. Basically unchanged.

Other interesting numbers: 91% of voters think Trump will be GOP nominee and 78% think Biden will be. Both much higher than they have been indicating that most voters realize rematch is happening.

[President Johnson]

Biden+1 seems reasonable but both at/below 45 does not.

Agreed. Third party votes will probably be somewhat up compared to 2020, but I think 45-46% is the absolute floor for Trump and 47-48% the floor for Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah this one makes more sense

[dspNY]

I feel like anything from Biden +1 to Trump +1 sounds right nationally after the two Georgia polls with Trump +3 and +4

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden's job approval is at 37/56 in this poll, supporting the idea that there is a large segment of voters who disapprove of him, but will neverthelss vote for him against Trump.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is vs 44-44 last month. Basically unchanged.

Other interesting numbers: 91% of voters think Trump will be GOP nominee and 78% think Biden will be. Both much higher than they have been indicating that most voters realize rematch is happening.

78% seems way too low. How are Americans still this deluded?

[Ljube]

This is a poll by a Dem pollster.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the right poll but Biden won by 5 last time it's gonna be Biden 5, Biden isn't losing the blue wall, c'mon Trump 10, no Rassy

[MR DARK BRANDON]

This is the right poll but Biden won by 5 last time it's gonna be Biden 5, Biden isn't losing the blue wall, c'mon Trump 10, no Rassy

Biden +3 or so seems more likely, that could still get the 303 map

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is a poll by a Dem pollster.

Their 2022 polls were pretty good.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is a poll by a Dem pollster.

Their 2022 polls were pretty good.

They did nail both Wisconsin races.

Not only that, but in spite of being DailyKos based, they always seem to be fairly bullish on Republicans.

[7,052,770]

This is vs 44-44 last month. Basically unchanged.

Other interesting numbers: 91% of voters think Trump will be GOP nominee and 78% think Biden will be. Both much higher than they have been indicating that most voters realize rematch is happening.

78% seems way too low. How are Americans still this deluded?

Who do the other 22% think the nominee will be?

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is vs 44-44 last month. Basically unchanged.

Other interesting numbers: 91% of voters think Trump will be GOP nominee and 78% think Biden will be. Both much higher than they have been indicating that most voters realize rematch is happening.

78% seems way too low. How are Americans still this deluded?

Who do the other 22% think the nominee will be?

Maybe they just think he'll die, or something.

Still dumb.

[emailking]

Makes sense. Biden is getting a boost from SOTU.

[wbrocks67]

This is a poll by a Dem pollster.

Their 2022 polls were pretty good.

I'll give Civiqs credit especially because they were one of the only pollsters in 2022 who didn't see the fake Republican mirage in CO, OR and WA especially. They nailed those races.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alot of the polls are over polling Trump because they underpolled him in 20 you are seeing the same polls from 22 like in NV, AZ

[Storr]

Biden's job approval is at 37/56 in this poll, supporting the idea that there is a large segment of voters who disapprove of him, but will neverthelss vote for him against Trump.

That's how Biden wins, getting enough "I don't like how he's been doing his job, but he's still better than Trump" voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is still in a criminal probe investigation unlike Biden is because J6 is darker than Docugate

[GAinDC]

Biden's job approval is at 37/56 in this poll, supporting the idea that there is a large segment of voters who disapprove of him, but will neverthelss vote for him against Trump.

That's how Biden wins, getting enough "I don't like how he's been doing his job, but he's still better than Trump" voters.

I wonder if his approval rating will rise pretty dramatically as we get closer to the election and approvals are more in line with the voters’ choice

[wbrocks67]

Biden's job approval is at 37/56 in this poll, supporting the idea that there is a large segment of voters who disapprove of him, but will neverthelss vote for him against Trump.

That's how Biden wins, getting enough "I don't like how he's been doing his job, but he's still better than Trump" voters.

I wonder if his approval rating will rise pretty dramatically as we get closer to the election and approvals are more in line with the voters’ choice

They definitely did in 2022 as we got closer to the election

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

I just received a push survey from Civiqs. I don't believe this should seriously be placed in an average.

[The Mikado]

I just received a push survey from Civiqs. I don't believe this should seriously be placed in an average.

The number reported is usually the very first number, before all the message testing stuff. Wouldn't be surprised if this is paid for by some advocacy group doing the usual testing on which new message pushes people effectively.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just received a push survey from Civiqs. I don't believe this should seriously be placed in an average.

Apples and oranges.

Their monthly tacking survey, which this thread is about, is not a push poll.  You can see the full survey, including questions, at https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_monthly_banner_book_2024_03_8zn7pf.pdf.  The first three questions are:

1. Do you think Joe Biden is going to be the Democratic candidate for president in
2024?

2. Do you think Donald Trump is going to be the Republican candidate for president in
2024?

3. If the election for president of the United States were held today, and the
choices were Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who would you vote for?

Most pollsters do different kinds of surveys for different clients.  If the push poll you received is ever published (more likely it's an internal) then it would indeed be inappropriate to include in an average.  But that is not the case for their monthly tracker, which clearly is not a push poll.