GA (CBS/YouGov): Trump 51 - Biden 48

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1767656822888911095

[GAinDC]

Not bad for Biden if you assume a slight Trump lead in the national popular vote.

[super6646]

Numbers seem right at quick glance, but Trump policies seen as strengthening American democracy more so than Biden ones? Ya I do not buy that for a single second.

[President Johnson]

Not bad for Biden if you assume a slight Trump lead in the national popular vote.

Yeah, and the campaign isn't full steam yet. We need more polls to see whether it's a trendline in favor of Biden.

[Minnesota Mike]

IMO Georgia is going to be the toughest 2020 state for Biden to hold. If he's close here it's probably evenish nationally.

[ajc0918]

Not bad to start the general election. Trump will only get more negative coverage.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

IMO Georgia is going to be the toughest 2020 state for Biden to hold. If he's close here it's probably evenish nationally.

Georgia is just close in general to its demographics. It's a lot easier for Trump to win it than say Michigan but it's harder for him to run away with the margin in the peach state.

[wbrocks67]

Numbers seem right at quick glance, but Trump policies seen as strengthening American democracy more so than Biden ones? Ya I do not buy that for a single second.

Yeah; that one caught my eye too; it stems from independents - Trump gets a positive 46/41 on that question, while Biden gets a very negative 19/52 among that. There's no way they're that different among that group; however, again, I've beat this drumbeat a lot - but I think next to some of the younger/nonwhite crosstabs, Independent samples are going to be among the whackiest this season too. Pollsters had a really hard time with Independents in 2022, and YouGov has particularly always had a weird R-leaning edge with that group historically.

In 2022, many GA polls had Walker winning Independents, only to lose them pretty big in the end. It's still early; so it could change, but something to keep an eye on.

I also am just asking for one poll to be conducted after the SOTU; we've now gotten a few and they're either all done before or just a few days of it. This one looks like it's half & half (3/4-3/11)

[wbrocks67]

Ironically, or not, given what we've seen in polling a lot recently - Biden is doing what he needs to do among White voters - 30/69 here matches the 2020 exit poll perfectly. He's down 3 b/c black support has gone from 88-11 to 82-17.

Where he's closely about equal or better than 2020: Female voters, <45 voters, Liberals, White voters, Conservative voters
Where he's doing worse than 2020: Black voters, Men voters, Moderate voters, 65+, Independents

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA is winnable

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1767669035674575089

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think my wife got polled for this one.

[2016]

The Key Number: Trump wins his 2020 GA Voters 92-7.

The notion that Haleys Voters would not vote for him is baloney. Trump will get 92 or 93 % of GA Republicans come November.

[Devils30]

Georgia is starting to converge on 2020. I fully expect Biden +2 result largely based on trends with a black belt right swing and not a suburban reversion like this write up suggests.

[dspNY]

The day after I said GA was within 5 points on the main board (I thought Trump was up about 3-4 points), we get two polls with Trump +4 (Emerson) and Trump +3 (CBS). Since I think GA is the hardest swing state for Biden to hold, it makes me think the big 3 in the Midwest and Arizona are dead heats, and Nevada is a slight Trump advantage (+1 or +2)

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

YouGov fools us into believing that there's gonna be no third party vote.

But 10% will vote for Kennedy, Stein and the Libertarian candidate.

[dspNY]

YouGov fools us into believing that there's gonna be no third party vote.

But 10% will vote for Kennedy, Stein and the Libertarian candidate.

No way. Maybe 6-7% at most goes to a third party. I'd bet even less. Georgia is not fertile ground for third parties historically.

I could definitely see something like Trump 48, Biden 46, RFK Jr/other third parties 6

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov fools us into believing that there's gonna be no third party vote.

But 10% will vote for Kennedy, Stein and the Libertarian candidate.

No way. Maybe 6-7% at most goes to a third party. I'd bet even less. Georgia is not fertile ground for third parties historically.

I could definitely see something like Trump 48, Biden 46, RFK Jr/other third parties 6

Yes, historically the Greens have had trouble getting ballot access here, although the Libertarians have done relatively well.

[Cyrusman]

The Key Number: Trump wins his 2020 GA Voters 92-7.

The notion that Haleys Voters would not vote for him is baloney. Trump will get 92 or 93 % of GA Republicans come November.

Haley voters to me are two groups.

Group A: Actual republicans and right leaning independents : The majority of these people will fall in line with Trump. Not all, but most

Group B: Not republicans at all, but actually Dems or left leaning independents . These were were never going to vote GOP in the general, including for Nikki Haley should she have won.

Group A will definitely go to Trump

[Cyrusman]

YouGov fools us into believing that there's gonna be no third party vote.

But 10% will vote for Kennedy, Stein and the Libertarian candidate.

No way. Maybe 6-7% at most goes to a third party. I'd bet even less. Georgia is not fertile ground for third parties historically.

I could definitely see something like Trump 48, Biden 46, RFK Jr/other third parties 6

You are correct, but AZ and NV sure are, so it will be interesting to see what happens there. I don't think its that inconceivable by any means to imagine 3rd parties getting a combined 10% in AZ/NV.

[dspNY]

YouGov fools us into believing that there's gonna be no third party vote.

But 10% will vote for Kennedy, Stein and the Libertarian candidate.

No way. Maybe 6-7% at most goes to a third party. I'd bet even less. Georgia is not fertile ground for third parties historically.

I could definitely see something like Trump 48, Biden 46, RFK Jr/other third parties 6

You are correct, but AZ and NV sure are, so it will be interesting to see what happens there. I don't think its that inconceivable by any means to imagine 3rd parties getting a combined 10% in AZ/NV.

I agree on Nevada. Believe they have a "none of these candidates" choice which usually gets a couple of percent. Third parties got about 7.5% of the vote in Arizona but I'm more bullish on the Democrats' chances in AZ than NV

[Malarkey Decider]

YouGov fools us into believing that there's gonna be no third party vote.

But 10% will vote for Kennedy, Stein and the Libertarian candidate.

No way. Maybe 6-7% at most goes to a third party. I'd bet even less. Georgia is not fertile ground for third parties historically.

I could definitely see something like Trump 48, Biden 46, RFK Jr/other third parties 6

You are correct, but AZ and NV sure are, so it will be interesting to see what happens there. I don't think its that inconceivable by any means to imagine 3rd parties getting a combined 10% in AZ/NV.

It just seems unlikely to me that 3rd parties get a higher percent than 2016. Considering that AZ and NV had 7.3% and 6.7% Third Party vote shares in 2016, I think it's very fair to assume a sub 5% 3rd party vote share in each this year.

[DaleCooper]

Not bad for Biden if you assume a slight Trump lead in the national popular vote.

I don't assume that, but I do expect Georgia to be very inelastic regardless. I would not be surprised if Democrats start winning there while losing the electoral college in 2028 onward.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not bad for Biden if you assume a slight Trump lead in the national popular vote.

I don't assume that, but I do expect Georgia to be very inelastic regardless. I would not be surprised if Democrats start winning there while losing the electoral college in 2028 onward.

Ds aren't losing the EC college with WI, MI and PA

[Farmlands]

The Supreme Court case must've done quite the number on Biden, because otherwise I can't imagine why people in Georgia would give better marks to Donald J. Trump on strengthening democracy over the current president. Didn't think I'd see such numbers this early on, actually.