NC-Cygnal: ROBINSON +5

[heatcharger]

https://twitter.com/iapolls2022/status/1767617326323483045?s=46&t=J_equ31A3o...

[Dave Hedgehog]

I keep hearing that Robinson is going to be Mastriano 2.0 but the polls thus far definitely don’t seem to support these claims. He’s not going to have a turnout problem with Trump on the ballot and let’s be honest, I doubt there are many who would pull the lever for a man like Trump but consider Robinson a step too far. However I can’t see it being more than 5 points either way, whatever should happen.

[Tekken_Guy]

I keep hearing that Robinson is going to be Mastriano 2.0 but the polls thus far definitely don’t seem to support these claims. He’s not going to have a turnout problem with Trump on the ballot and let’s be honest, I doubt there are many who would pull the lever for a man like Trump but consider Robinson a step too far. However I can’t see it being more than 5 points either way, whatever should happen.

He could be Kari Lake 2.0.

[Spectator]

I keep hearing that Robinson is going to be Mastriano 2.0 but the polls thus far definitely don’t seem to support these claims. He’s not going to have a turnout problem with Trump on the ballot and let’s be honest, I doubt there are many who would pull the lever for a man like Trump but consider Robinson a step too far. However I can’t see it being more than 5 points either way, whatever should happen.

Shapiro was leading by only 3-4 points in June 2022. He didn’t really start pulling away until September consistently. In some Cygnal polls as well, mind you. Let’s pump the breaks. The general public definitely doesn’t know Robinson’s controversies at this general juncture. Guarantee if I asked five people on my running trail right now who the Lieutenant Governor of Georgia is, none would know.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Robinson could win. It wouldn't be North Carolina if we didn't get polls with a ton of undecideds for most of the year, of course.

[TodayJunior]

No way. Robinson winning the nomination almost assuredly puts North Carolina in the blue column (both gov and potus)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mastriano's biggest weakness is that he had no money. He ran a total of one(1!) TV ad the entire campaign near the end, and most of his campaign seemed to consist of going on right-wing podcasts and begging for donations. Shapiro meanwhile was quite funded.

Stein should be well funded but I don't know if Robinson is quite as underfunded or will be. Definitely possible though.

[Storr]

Who the heck is Cygnal?

[DaleCooper]

I keep hearing that Robinson is going to be Mastriano 2.0 but the polls thus far definitely don’t seem to support these claims. He’s not going to have a turnout problem with Trump on the ballot and let’s be honest, I doubt there are many who would pull the lever for a man like Trump but consider Robinson a step too far. However I can’t see it being more than 5 points either way, whatever should happen.

He could be Kari Lake 2.0.

If Robinson loses and it's close then yes I'd say Kari Lake is the best comparison, especially if polls consistently favor him.

[Sol]

Mastriano's biggest weakness is that he had no money. He ran a total of one(1!) TV ad the entire campaign near the end, and most of his campaign seemed to consist of going on right-wing podcasts and begging for donations. Shapiro meanwhile was quite funded.

Stein should be well funded but I don't know if Robinson is quite as underfunded or will be. Definitely possible though.

FWIW the NC Republican establishment conceded the shadow primary for Governor to him in like 2021, which suggests that he shouldn't have a problem with institutional support.

[wbrocks67]

No way. Robinson winning the nomination almost assuredly puts North Carolina in the blue column (both gov and potus)

He's not Mastriano-level underfunded but he's definitely underfunded (at least right now) compared to Stein

[wbrocks67]

I keep hearing that Robinson is going to be Mastriano 2.0 but the polls thus far definitely don’t seem to support these claims. He’s not going to have a turnout problem with Trump on the ballot and let’s be honest, I doubt there are many who would pull the lever for a man like Trump but consider Robinson a step too far. However I can’t see it being more than 5 points either way, whatever should happen.

Like others have said, this is verbatim what people said about Mastriano at first when Shapiro was only beating him by a few % in the polls early on

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I keep hearing that Robinson is going to be Mastriano 2.0 but the polls thus far definitely don’t seem to support these claims. He’s not going to have a turnout problem with Trump on the ballot and let’s be honest, I doubt there are many who would pull the lever for a man like Trump but consider Robinson a step too far. However I can’t see it being more than 5 points either way, whatever should happen.

Like others have said, this is verbatim what people said about Mastriano at first when Shapiro was only beating him by a few % in the polls early on

Not a single poll had Mastriano up at any point in the cycle.

You are right that some early polls showed it close but by July there where polls showing Shapiro up Big.

We shall see if this follows, but this looks like more of a Keri Lake 2022 thing.- Robinson could lose and underperform bt I don't see a landslide right now

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I keep hearing that Robinson is going to be Mastriano 2.0 but the polls thus far definitely don’t seem to support these claims. He’s not going to have a turnout problem with Trump on the ballot and let’s be honest, I doubt there are many who would pull the lever for a man like Trump but consider Robinson a step too far. However I can’t see it being more than 5 points either way, whatever should happen.

Like others have said, this is verbatim what people said about Mastriano at first when Shapiro was only beating him by a few % in the polls early on

Agreed, once Stein starts flooding the airwaves it'll be a wrap.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stein wasn't 8 pts ahead anyways

[2016]

I keep hearing that Robinson is going to be Mastriano 2.0 but the polls thus far definitely don’t seem to support these claims. He’s not going to have a turnout problem with Trump on the ballot and let’s be honest, I doubt there are many who would pull the lever for a man like Trump but consider Robinson a step too far. However I can’t see it being more than 5 points either way, whatever should happen.

Cygnal was the most accurate Pollster in 2022 when they polled the Senate Race & the NC Supreme Court Races.

[Bush did 311]

Cygnal was the most accurate *private pollster. It did a good job in NC in 2022. Budd won by 3.2% but most pollsters had him at 6% the whole time. Cygnal bounced between tie and +4R so better than most. Most insititutional pollsters refused to touch this state for whatever reason that year. Emerson nailed it at 3% though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cygnal was the most accurate *private pollster. It did a good job in NC in 2022. Budd won by 3.2% but most pollsters had him at 6% the whole time. Cygnal bounced between tie and +4R so better than most. Most insititutional pollsters refused to touch this state for whatever reason that year. Emerson nailed it at 3% though.

I can’t speak to whether or not that was the case in 2022, but I know historically they’ve been a Republican polling outfit (admittedly there’s a chance I am thinking about another outfit that did a lot of NC polling the last few cycles), but either way, I’d treat this as one datapoint.  No more and no less. 

That said, my gut* tells me Stein wins by simultaneously far less than he should on paper (this is going to be a competitive race and the margin will reflect that), but also more than the consensus on places like Atlas would suggest.  That is, a 52-47% win (give or take 1% or so) looks pretty close to most folks, but is also more than folks who follow this stuff as closely as we do seem to expect.  In case anyone is curious, here are my way too early initial reads on the other races:

POTUS: Too early, but is definitely more winnable for Biden than last time (not to say he didn’t have a shot there in 2020)

Lt. Governor: If Republicans nominate O’Neill, they keep this by about 5% or so.  Too early to say with Weatherman.  He’s still favored, but a little less of an uphill battle.  O’Neill is a proven over-performer even when he loses and he is a veteran of some very competitive campaigns. 

SoS: It could easily go either way, but my gut tells me this may be the year Marshall finally goes down.  Too early though.

AG: I think Democrats narrowly hold this slot.  Highly competitive, but the Jackson of today is not the Jackson of 2020.  He’s a much stronger candidate than the (imo) pretty overrated Bishop and in a race this close, sometimes that can make the difference.

Treasurer: Too early to say, but probably goes with the overall generic flow of the state.

Auditor: See Treasurer

InsuranceCom: Probably a point or two to the left of the overall generic mood of the state, but we’ll see if that’s enough for Democrats to flip it

AgCom and LaborCom: Safe Republican

Superintendent of PubEducation: Probably flips by a much closer than expected margin, but don’t sleep on the possibility the rando lunatic Republicans nominated pulls off an upset here if the overall generic mood in the state ends up favoring Republicans.  The Democratic nominee is still decidedly meh and this is a pretty low ranking statewide race.  A crazy could definitely slip through in a race like this, especially if NC Democratic muckety mucks get complacent.

*Which has only steered me wrong in a NC Senate or non-federal statewide election once since I started following this stuff in 2002: the 2014 Senate race where I thought Hagen would eek out a win (for some reason, I tend to consistently have my finger more or less on the pulse of certainly electorates like both parties’ Iowa Caucuses, statewide GEs in MI, FL, NV, WI, AZ, NC, KY, etc while others like GEs in OK, VA, CA, TX, MT, GA, and embarrassingly enough OH seemingly make a sport of doing a Lucy with the Football routine to me cycle after cycle; IIRC NY and PA are among the very few where my prediction track record in competitive races isn’t to one extreme or the other).