February Inflation and Unemployment both rose; real hourly wages fell

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Unemployment rose from 3.7% to 3.9%
Annual inflation rose from 3.1% to 3.2%
Wage growth was only 0.1% compared to 0.4% inflation

Inflation is accelerating, as if we extrapolate February to the whole year, we would get 5.3% inflation.


Seems like we are headed for stagflation.

[Landslide Lyndon]

[MasterJedi]

Ah yes, the conservatives and libertarians complaining about this with policies in force to rev it into overdrive because we’re all just future millionaires if we try hard enough.

[Yelnoc]

Then the Fed is going to have to delay cutting rates for a while longer. I wonder the odds on them raising rates are if we see this continue in March?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Ah yes, the conservatives and libertarians complaining about this with policies in force to rev it into overdrive because we’re all just future millionaires if we try hard enough.

My policy would be to raise rates further. The result will be a painful recession, but we will solve the inflation problem, and housing will be affordable again. We will once again be incentivized to save in cash, rather than gamble in the Current Thing Bubble.

I think the economy is getting worse, but it is not because of Biden. Other surveys such as the NY Fed, JOLTS, ISM, and Household BLS survey all suggest that unemployment is headed much higher soon. Mass layoffs have not started yet, but hiring is already dropping like a rock and down to 2014 levels or so.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Inflation will be just fine once Trump is re-elected and he cuts taxes and pressures the Fed into lowering interest rates.

[Yelnoc]

Ah yes, the conservatives and libertarians complaining about this with policies in force to rev it into overdrive because we’re all just future millionaires if we try hard enough.

My policy would be to raise rates further. The result will be a painful recession, but we will solve the inflation problem, and housing will be affordable again. We will once again be incentivized to save in cash, rather than gamble in the Current Thing Bubble.

I think the economy is getting worse, but it is not because of Biden. Other surveys such as the NY Fed, JOLTS, ISM, and Household BLS survey all suggest that unemployment is headed much higher soon. Mass layoffs have not started yet, but hiring is already dropping like a rock and down to 2014 levels or so.

I am worried we are on the cusp of major AI-driven layoffs. Also the insurance industry is under a lot of strain right now. GEICO laid off 1,000 employees last year and are preparing to let go of another 1,000. This is related to the hardening market, caused in no small part by climate change. GEICO is basically pulling out of California due to the heightening risks. And of course most insurance companies are pulling out Florida. Which brings the Spector of increased rates for personal and commercial property and auto policies to levels that could make it difficult for businesses in the high risks areas (e.g. Florida, California) to function, this potentially driving layoffs in unrelated industries. I think we could be looking at localized recessions here very soon.

[jojoju1998]

I’m not an economist or anything. But, a 3.9 unemployment rate would be rare in any case. We haven’t had that since 1953.

[jojoju1998]

Ah yes, the conservatives and libertarians complaining about this with policies in force to rev it into overdrive because we’re all just future millionaires if we try hard enough.

My policy would be to raise rates further. The result will be a painful recession, but we will solve the inflation problem, and housing will be affordable again. We will once again be incentivized to save in cash, rather than gamble in the Current Thing Bubble.

I think the economy is getting worse, but it is not because of Biden. Other surveys such as the NY Fed, JOLTS, ISM, and Household BLS survey all suggest that unemployment is headed much higher soon. Mass layoffs have not started yet, but hiring is already dropping like a rock and down to 2014 levels or so.

I am worried we are on the cusp of major AI-driven layoffs. Also the insurance industry is under a lot of strain right now. GEICO laid off 1,000 employees last year and are preparing to let go of another 1,000. This is related to the hardening market, caused in no small part by climate change. GEICO is basically pulling out of California due to the heightening risks. And of course most insurance companies are pulling out Florida. Which brings the Spector of increased rates for personal and commercial property and auto policies to levels that could make it difficult for businesses in the high risks areas (e.g. Florida, California) to function, this potentially driving layoffs in unrelated industries. I think we could be looking at localized recessions here very soon.

White collar socialist Revolution.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I’m not an economist or anything. But, a 3.9 unemployment rate would be rare in any case. We haven’t had that since 1953.

The trend is the key. We are up about 0.5% from the lows of 3.4%. Historically, we usually go into recession after unemployment rises 0.5% from its lows.

[Yelnoc]

Ah yes, the conservatives and libertarians complaining about this with policies in force to rev it into overdrive because we’re all just future millionaires if we try hard enough.

My policy would be to raise rates further. The result will be a painful recession, but we will solve the inflation problem, and housing will be affordable again. We will once again be incentivized to save in cash, rather than gamble in the Current Thing Bubble.

I think the economy is getting worse, but it is not because of Biden. Other surveys such as the NY Fed, JOLTS, ISM, and Household BLS survey all suggest that unemployment is headed much higher soon. Mass layoffs have not started yet, but hiring is already dropping like a rock and down to 2014 levels or so.

I am worried we are on the cusp of major AI-driven layoffs. Also the insurance industry is under a lot of strain right now. GEICO laid off 1,000 employees last year and are preparing to let go of another 1,000. This is related to the hardening market, caused in no small part by climate change. GEICO is basically pulling out of California due to the heightening risks. And of course most insurance companies are pulling out Florida. Which brings the Spector of increased rates for personal and commercial property and auto policies to levels that could make it difficult for businesses in the high risks areas (e.g. Florida, California) to function, this potentially driving layoffs in unrelated industries. I think we could be looking at localized recessions here very soon.

White collar socialist Revolution.

Ha. Unfortunately for the prospects of that, call center employees are probably the most difficult to unionize. Between the number of English speakers in other countries with weaker currency (who thus form a far cheaper pool of reserve labor to undercut US workers bargaining power) to the rapidly expanding capabilities of AI chat bots, I really cannot see this segment of white collar workers having much power to fight back.

[Sir Mohamed]

Are riverwalk and SL personally related? Both are from MA. Judging by their posts, it seems to be the case.

[Beet]

Another report that seems to suggest inflation has bottomed, at current rates. The Fed wants to cut rates, but it lacks justification in the data. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a recession after all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That explains the Dooming on both parts and the tax cuts are the ones that hurting the economy.

When you have high poverty it drives up inflation because people don't want to work and there are severe labor shortages

Riverwalk and SL only comments on polls showing Trump ahead

The 34 T dollar deficit is due in large part that Trump won't close due 50 M borrowers haven't paid their Student loans, they are on forbearance

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

That explains the Dooming on both parts and the tax cuts are the ones that hurting the economy.

When you have high poverty it drives up inflation because people don't want to work and there are severe labor shortages

Riverwalk and SL only comments on polls showing Trump ahead

The 34 T dollar deficit is due in large part that Trump won't close due 50 M borrowers haven't paid their Student loans, they are on forbearance

My view is that the deficit is both Trump and Biden's fault, and that Trump is more responsible for current inflation than Biden is. However, voter perception is what matters, and it matters that the bad stuff is happening mostly under Biden's watch.

Unemployment has to rise due to the higher interest rates, and the unemployment rate ticking narrowly up as well as the hiring rates crashing is a sign that this is starting.

[GoTfan]

Riverwalk is angry because money was spent to keep people alive during the pandemic and is now hoping for another Great Depression because it will defeat Biden.

But he's already confessed to being part of the 1%, so he'll be fine while the rest of the US falls apart. And he sits there and wonders why the rest of the country has so much contempt for people like him.

[GP270watch]

 Inflation is going down, look at the big picture.

 The I Bond variable rate is also scheduled to be lower, not higher.



The big price increases I've been seeing in the real world that people have been complaining about are auto insurance and home insurance, but I'm in Florida and that's been particularly bad here.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Inflation is accelerating, as if we extrapolate February to the whole year, we would get 5.3% inflation.

LOL.

By this logic if a poll comes out showing Biden and Trump tied and then the same poll next week shows Biden+1, then we can "extrapolate" that this will happen every week going forward and by election day Biden will lead by 33.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

 Inflation is going down, look at the big picture.

 The I Bond variable rate is also scheduled to be lower, not higher.



The big price increases I've been seeing in the real world that people have been complaining about are auto insurance and home insurance, but I'm in Florida and that's been particularly bad here.

Restaurants around me raised prices by about 6% recently, and gas prices are also up 10% recently.

[Gass3268]

 Inflation is going down, look at the big picture.

 The I Bond variable rate is also scheduled to be lower, not higher.



The big price increases I've been seeing in the real world that people have been complaining about are auto insurance and home insurance, but I'm in Florida and that's been particularly bad here.

Thank you for being the only person in this thread to provide actual hard numbers and data.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are severe labor shortages as well. There are so many warehouse jobs that are looking for Laborers but I want to finish Law school without working. Lol in this environment when you have nothing passing Congress, when we get the Filibuster proof Trifecta then we can pass lots of programs Such as Cap on tuition, student loans forgiveness, some reparations even a check for 7 thousand would be good enough, and caps on rents, then things can calm down. What initiatives has this do nothing RH done aside from budgeting, they blocked the bipartisanship Border bill

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It seems like inflation has basically been steady at just over 3% for close to a year now. 

That seems....fine to me. 

Inflation of 2% might be the Fed's stated ideal, but there's no ironclad moral or empirical justification for that. And while inflation has generally been in that range for the last few decades, that's very low by historical standards.  Average inflation for the 100 years pre-covid was actually right at 3.1%.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It seems like inflation has basically been steady at just over 3% for close to a year now. 

That seems....fine to me. 

Inflation of 2% might be the Fed's stated ideal, but there's no ironclad moral or empirical justification for that. And while inflation has generally been in that range for the last few decades, that's very low by historical standards.  Average inflation for the 100 years pre-covid was actually right at 3.1%.

Trend is up. In the last 3 months, it has been running at about 4% annualized.

[President Johnson]

More seems like statistical noise to me. This like having three polls with one candidate improving in all of them by 0.1% or 0.2% and claiming there's a trend or a huge turnaround. Obviously not surprised this is coming from the OP who's constantly wishcasting/cheering for a recession.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

More seems like statistical noise to me. This like having three polls with one candidate improving in all of them by 0.1% or 0.2% and claiming there's a trend or a huge turnaround. Obviously not surprised this is coming from the OP who's constantly wishcasting/cheering for a recession.

A lot of other data points to the same thing.

Ie Kansas City Fed Labor conditions is collapsing fast. NY Fed confidence in finding a job after being laid off has declined significantly. JOLTS hiring rates have collapsed. NFIP share of businesses saying finding labor is the biggest issue for them has also collapsed. All of this points to a rapidly deteriorating labor market.

ISM price pressures have trended up in recent months.