Emerson: GA Trump +4

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1767501520818381069

[dspNY]

This feels more believable to me than the Trump +8 polls here. I had posted a thread that said GA was within 5 points on the main board. Maybe Biden did gain a couple of points from the SOTU

[wbrocks67]

This feels more believable to me than the Trump +8 polls here. I had posted a thread that said GA was within 5 points on the main board. Maybe Biden did gain a couple of points from the SOTU

Unfortunately this poll was fielded right before, March 5-7.

Good trendline for Biden here though, his best result in Emerson of their 4 recent GA polls. Emerson though, lol.

[Redban]

RFK Jr’s PAC has almost 3x as many signatures needed for ballot access in GA. He will be there. The Trump +7 figure is indicative of what will happen

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RFK Jr’s PAC has almost 3x as many signatures needed for ballot access in GA. He will be there. The Trump +7 figure is indicative of what will happen

WE DONT NEED GA

[Sir Mohamed]

This feels more believable to me than the Trump +8 polls here. I had posted a thread that said GA was within 5 points on the main board. Maybe Biden did gain a couple of points from the SOTU

Yup, though there seems to be some movement towards Biden here. Biden most likely needs a little more until November to keep GA, though he was mostly trailing in 2020 here as well. GA was one of the few states in which he was underestimated last time.

[wbrocks67]

RFK Jr’s PAC has almost 3x as many signatures needed for ballot access in GA. He will be there. The Trump +7 figure is indicative of what will happen

Including Cornel West is ridiculous at this point, though. It's very clear that he's unlikely to be on any ballots at all.

[GAinDC]

This feels more believable to me than the Trump +8 polls here. I had posted a thread that said GA was within 5 points on the main board. Maybe Biden did gain a couple of points from the SOTU

Yup, though there seems to be some movement towards Biden here. Biden most likely needs a little more until November to keep GA, though he was mostly trailing in 2020 here as well. GA was one of the few states in which he was underestimated last time.

Warnock was underestimated as well in 2022

Many thought his best chance was to keep Walker below 50

[DaleCooper]

RFK Jr’s PAC has almost 3x as many signatures needed for ballot access in GA. He will be there. The Trump +7 figure is indicative of what will happen

The fact that all these polls keep showing RFK Jr. hurting Biden is one of the best indications that the polls can't be trusted right now.

[Redban]

RFK Jr’s PAC has almost 3x as many signatures needed for ballot access in GA. He will be there. The Trump +7 figure is indicative of what will happen

The fact that all these polls keep showing RFK Jr. hurting Biden is one of the best indications that the polls can't be trusted right now.

Is he really though? ... the polls with RFK Jr included also have West and Stein, who are heavily left-wing. If you assume their votes come from Biden cause their similar views, then Trump/Biden/RFK Jr would be something like Trump 44/Biden 40 / RFK Jr 15. That would indicate that RFK Jr takes 2% from Trump and Biden equally (i.e. he splits the vote).

Of course, it's likely that some of the West/Stein voters would vote "Other" or RFK Jr instead of Biden if West/Stein weren't on the ballot. But still ... RFK Jr may not be so damaging to Biden as you think

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RFK Jr’s PAC has almost 3x as many signatures needed for ballot access in GA. He will be there. The Trump +7 figure is indicative of what will happen

The fact that all these polls keep showing RFK Jr. hurting Biden is one of the best indications that the polls can't be trusted right now.

Is he really though? ... the polls with RFK Jr included also have West and Stein, who are heavily left-wing. If you assume their votes come from Biden cause their similar views, then Trump/Biden/RFK Jr would be something like Trump 44/Biden 40 / RFK Jr 15. That would indicate that RFK Jr takes 2% from Trump and Biden equally (i.e. he splits the vote).

Of course, it's likely that some of the West/Stein voters would vote "Other" or RFK Jr instead of Biden if West/Stein weren't on the ballot. But still ... RFK Jr may not be so damaging to Biden as you think

Trump isn't winning GA by 7 and even if RFK is added he won't win by 7 did you not forget the polls overstated Walker in 22 they had Walker up by 5 pts leading up to Eday

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Isn't Trump +7 the more accurate headline?

RFK Jr. has already enough signatures for GA and Stein is likely to be on the ballot too.

West probably not, but the Libertarian candidate will be.

[DaleCooper]

I don't believe that RFK Jr. splits the vote, if he gets any traction. Ideologically, he is a perfect fit for the conspiratorial Trump-adjacent voter. And anecdotally, every person I've met who is sympathetic to RFK Jr. (which admittedly is only a few) has had shy Trump voter written all over them. He "steals" at least 3-1 from Trump over Biden. Probably more than that.

[Spectator]

That's a lot closer to reality than the ridiculous Trump +10 margins that even Raffensperger couldn't hit in 2022.