NC: WRAL News/Survey USA (Trump+5)

[Malarkey Decider]

Link

Trump 50
Biden 45

598 LV, 3/3 -3/9

Stein up 44-42 in same poll.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lean R. I'll just be happy if Stein wins...not Jill, that's going to be a bit confusing this year.

[dspNY]

This would line up with a tie in the national popular vote

[wbrocks67]

The bit about certain to vote/probably vote is much different than pretty much every poll we've seen, which is interesting. Curious if its a fluke or not.

[Devils30]

The topline results seem reasonable at this time but Trump up with young voters, Biden good with older voters is just a polling result that seems to be repeated all over and is likely a mistake. You just wonder if polls are picking up anything useful.

[Lambsbread]

Biden got about 48% in 2020, so this number seems at least plausible. Hillary got 46% so I expect Biden to do better than that, but not much.

[wbrocks67]

The topline results seem reasonable at this time but Trump up with young voters, Biden good with older voters is just a polling result that seems to be repeated all over and is likely a mistake. You just wonder if polls are picking up anything useful.

Yeah and it's not just a Biden/Trump thing with young voters, they also have Stein/Robinson tied among young voters too. Once again, we're clearly just seeing whacky samples among this group (and likewise, probably again a way too D-sample among older voters too)

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The bit about certain to vote/probably vote is much different than pretty much every poll we've seen, which is interesting. Curious if its a fluke or not.

Stein is up. More bad numbers specific to Biden.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

68% of RV are "certain to vote" in November.

Trump leads Biden 53-43.

Biden leads Trump 55-38 among the 13% of RV who say they will "probably vote".

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e376c715-218b-400f-ac6b-75a0bd8b5180

[wbrocks67]

68% of RV are "certain to vote" in November.

Trump leads Biden 53-43.

Biden leads Trump 55-38 among the 13% of RV who say they will "probably vote".

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e376c715-218b-400f-ac6b-75a0bd8b5180

Interesting that its so much lower than SurveyUSA's MN poll, which had 80% certain to vote. Though that poll also had Biden doing *better* than his LV topline among certain to vote, the opposite of this one

[Spectator]

The bit about certain to vote/probably vote is much different than pretty much every poll we've seen, which is interesting. Curious if its a fluke or not.

Stein is up. More bad numbers specific to Biden.

Stein +2 and Jackson +1, aligning with the intuition that they'll do better than Biden.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

68% of RV are "certain to vote" in November.

Trump leads Biden 53-43.

Biden leads Trump 55-38 among the 13% of RV who say they will "probably vote".

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e376c715-218b-400f-ac6b-75a0bd8b5180

Interesting that its so much lower than SurveyUSA's MN poll, which had 80% certain to vote. Though that poll also had Biden doing *better* than his LV topline among certain to vote, the opposite of this one

MN usually leads the nation in turnout, maybe that's the reason for the higher percentage.

[wbrocks67]

Republicans
78% certain to vote
9% probably vote

Democrats
66% certain to vote
19% probably vote

This explains those certain/probably #s, Reps with a huge edge on certain to vote here.

Will say though at least they have a very realistic crosstab for black voters (Biden 85%, Trump 12%)

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e376c715-218b-400f-ac6b-75a0bd8b5180

[dspNY]

Republicans
78% certain to vote
9% probably vote

Democrats
66% certain to vote
19% probably vote

This explains those certain/probably #s, Reps with a huge edge on certain to vote here.

Will say though at least they have a very realistic crosstab for black voters (Biden 85%, Trump 12%)

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e376c715-218b-400f-ac6b-75a0bd8b5180

Softer Democratic support is good news and bad news. It's good news because Biden has more room to grow than Trump and can make it a close race. Tying Trump to that Robinson loony should be the Biden campaign's strategy.

It's bad news because some of that soft support might not vote without significant persuasion, and I think that's true in the other swing states too.

There was an article in the NYT where the Biden campaign thought NC was an easier state to win than Georgia because of that Robinson loony

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The bit about certain to vote/probably vote is much different than pretty much every poll we've seen, which is interesting. Curious if its a fluke or not.

Stein is up. More bad numbers specific to Biden.

Biden is getting a higher percentage than Stein is.