Which of these will happen first

[Samof94]

Which of these is more likely to happen first?

[Sir Mohamed]

I would say it depends. On the 2024 outcome in particular, though I fail to see Trump winning NH this year or Biden winning TX either. Both states could flip in 2028 for the winner if we assume the losing party if this year scores a relatively comfortable victory after the 2nd term of Biden or Trump.

[Schiff for Senate]

I would say it depends. On the 2024 outcome in particular, though I fail to see Trump winning NH this year or Biden winning TX either. Both states could flip in 2028 for the winner if we assume the losing party if this year scores a relatively comfortable victory after the 2nd term of Biden or Trump.

Agreed.

On the whole though, I think NH is like fool's gold for Republicans at the presidential level. Otoh, while TX still leans Republican, it's trending Democratic and will flip in the next big Democratic victory.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Option 1

[wnwnwn]

2024: Biden has more posibilities of winning Texas than Trump of winning NH.
2028 - next elections: Nobody knows

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If an R wins an open seat presidency, I think they will win or come close to taking NH. It's not an anti-incumbent state per se, but Bush and Trump did very good there initially compared to their second go around.