The death of the small swing state

[ProgressiveModerate]

If one looks at the 7 main swing states going into 2024; AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, and WI, one will notice they skew to be medium-larger states; the one exception being Nevada which isn't even that close to the bottom of the smallest states list. I believe this is not a fluke.

I think the size of states like PA and NC helps them to be perennial swing states. Both states have a large number of distinct communities that have made it hard for either side to run away with the states in recent years. In PA for instance, coalitions have pretty dramatically changed, but because there are areas of the state both sides have gained in the state has stayed competitive.

Smaller states tend to be more homogenous demographically, culturally, and geopolitically. While small states can be close in specific elections (aka NH-2016), it's increasingly hard for them to stay are perennial swing states in our current political environment because there isn't enough to cancel out favorable demographic swings from one group.

A good example could be Iowa; there just weren't areas to cancel out the massive gains Trump made throughout rural white Iowa, and has pushed the state pretty solidly into the R column. On the flip side, there don't exist enough substantial communities for Rs to cancel out of the recent D gains with college educated and non-religious whites.

Overall, it's harder for smaller states to sustain themselves as swing states because there are less variables that can cancel out to maintain an equilibrium.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

You more or less answered your own question. Big states have competing demographics and therefore put them in play.

I wouldn’t even say this is a new trend. In much of American history big states (historically Virginia, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois) were swing states

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

How is NH not a swing state?

[CookieDamage]

How is NH not a swing state?

Time will tell if it remains one, but in 2020 and I'd say this year as well it's not really being contested by either party. It's been blue since 2004 and despite coming close in 2016 I can't see it going red anytime soon.

[LabourJersey]

New Hampshire is more highly educated and more secular than the national average - two traits that pulls it away from the GOP and towards the Democrats.

If the post-Trump Republican Party appeals more to college-educated suburbanites than it does now, than NH will return to swing state status. But I wouldn't classify it as a swing state for 2024.

[Del Tachi]

~50% of Americans live in the 11-most populous states, so states like WI and AZ should be counted as "small" using a population-weighted metric.

[Sol]

~50% of Americans live in the 11-most populous states, so states like WI and AZ should be counted as "small" using a population-weighted metric.

In fairness Arizona might seem larger because Phoenix is one of the largest metro areas in the country (for some godforsaken reason).

[ProgressiveModerate]

~50% of Americans live in the 11-most populous states, so states like WI and AZ should be counted as "small" using a population-weighted metric.

Fair - sort of depends upon the context. If you're just treating states as entities in themselves, using the median is appropriate. If you're talking about something related to people within states, then it makes more sense to use a mean/weighted average.

[ProgressiveModerate]

How is NH not a swing state?

At the federal level, it's pretty clearly D-leaning at this point. Biden won it by 7% in 2020, Hassan won by 10% in 2022 and both D incumbents pretty easily won re-election; Rs have struggled to win federal statewide races.

However, at the state level things are certainly a bit different, and I think there's an argument to be made that smaller states are more likely to be swingy at a state level due to factors of local appeal. Large overperformances we've seen in recent Gov races in states like KS, KY, NH, and VT just wouldn't be possible in CA or TX.