Quinnipiac National Poll: Democrats favored in General Election

[Tender Branson]

General Election (compared with last poll)

Clinton vs. Giuliani: 45-44 (40-49)
Clinton vs. McCain: 44-42 (41-46)
Clinton vs. Thompson: 46-39 (46-39)

Obama vs. Giuliani: 42-42 (41-44)
Obama vs. McCain: 43-41 (42-42)
Obama vs. Thompson: 46-34 (47-34)

Gore vs. Giuliani: 45-43 (41-48)
Gore vs. McCain: 44-41 (41-47)
Gore vs. Thompson: 49-37 (47-37)

Democratic Primary:

Clinton: 35% (+3)
Obama: 21% (+3)
Gore: 18% (+4)
Edwards: 9% (-3)

Republican Primary:

Giuliani: 27% (-)
Thompson: 15% (+1)
McCain: 15% (-4)
Romney: 10% (+2)
Gingrich: 5% (-3)

Favorable/Unfavorable:

Clinton: 47/45
Obama:  48/21
Edwards: 41/28
Gore: 50/40

Giuliani: 51/27
Thompson: 28/13
McCain: 45/28
Romney: 18/20

From June 5 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,711 American voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percent, including 663 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percent, and 789 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1075

[Tender Branson]

GE polls now are pretty wicked. I think this poll shows the current positions best. There´s no way the Rasmussen poll that showed Giuliani leading Obama  by 13% is true and the LA Times poll which showed Obama leading by 5% can´t be trustworthy either.

I think Obama/Giuliani are currently running neck and neck, Edwards is slightly ahead of Giuliani at the current stage and Giuliani is slightly leading Clinton.

[Reaganfan]

In August 1988, Michael Dukakis beat George Bush massively. In January 1980, President Carter crushed Governor Reagan in polls. Governor Bush beat Al Gore by a landslide in the Summer of 2000.

Polls keep us junkies' blood flowing...but don't mean crap right now.

[Kevin]

In August 1988, Michael Dukakis beat George Bush massively. In January 1980, President Carter crushed Governor Reagan in polls. Governor Bush beat Al Gore by a landslide in the Summer of 2000.

Polls keep us junkies' blood flowing...but don't mean crap right now.

Your right in saying that it doesn't mean crap, However the national mood and politcal enviroment is well not good for the Republican Party. 

[Reaganfan]

In August 1988, Michael Dukakis beat George Bush massively. In January 1980, President Carter crushed Governor Reagan in polls. Governor Bush beat Al Gore by a landslide in the Summer of 2000.

Polls keep us junkies' blood flowing...but don't mean crap right now.

Your right in saying that it doesn't mean crap, However the national mood and politcal enviroment is well not good for the Republican Party. 

Yeah...but I still expect Republicans to win...and some democrats I talk to think so as well. The GOP contenders (McCain, Rudy and Thompson) are stronger GE candidates and more likeable than Clinton, Obama and Edwards. GOP has been strong for Florida and Pennsylvania...to the point to where if that held...a loss in Ohio might still result in a GOP victory.

[Tender Branson]

In August 1988, Michael Dukakis beat George Bush massively. In January 1980, President Carter crushed Governor Reagan in polls. Governor Bush beat Al Gore by a landslide in the Summer of 2000.

Polls keep us junkies' blood flowing...but don't mean crap right now.

Your right in saying that it doesn't mean crap, However the national mood and politcal enviroment is well not good for the Republican Party. 

Yeah...but I still expect Republicans to win...and some democrats I talk to think so as well. The GOP contenders (McCain, Rudy and Thompson) are stronger GE candidates and more likeable than Clinton, Obama and Edwards. GOP has been strong for Florida and Pennsylvania...to the point to where if that held...a loss in Ohio might still result in a GOP victory.

Not entirelly. If the Democrat wins NV, CO, NM, IA, OH, then PA and CT could be won by Giuliani and the Democrat still wins.

But that is highly unlikely and if Rudy is not the nominee, PA, CT and NJ can be considered lean Dem.

If Rudy wins PA, NJ and CT, the Democrat needs to win MO and either WV or VA too to win.

[Reaganfan]

In August 1988, Michael Dukakis beat George Bush massively. In January 1980, President Carter crushed Governor Reagan in polls. Governor Bush beat Al Gore by a landslide in the Summer of 2000.

Polls keep us junkies' blood flowing...but don't mean crap right now.

Your right in saying that it doesn't mean crap, However the national mood and politcal enviroment is well not good for the Republican Party. 

Yeah...but I still expect Republicans to win...and some democrats I talk to think so as well. The GOP contenders (McCain, Rudy and Thompson) are stronger GE candidates and more likeable than Clinton, Obama and Edwards. GOP has been strong for Florida and Pennsylvania...to the point to where if that held...a loss in Ohio might still result in a GOP victory.

Not entirelly. If the Democrat wins NV, CO, NM, IA, OH, then PA and CT could be won by Giuliani and the Democrat still wins.

But that is highly unlikely and if Rudy is not the nominee, PA, CT and NJ can be considered lean Dem.

If Rudy wins PA, NJ and CT, the Democrat needs to win MO and either WV or VA too to win.

See, but if any of the top three democrats are the nominee, against say Giuliani...it's very hard for them to win Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. I'd think Rudy would win bigger than George Bush, and so he would probably solid the 286 Bush electoral votes, and then maybe add NH, PA, NJ and WI to that list. If Obama is the nominee against Rudy, his ONLY shot is in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, because the south and most of the midwest (Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa) would stay solid GOP.

[Mr. Morden]

I doubt any Republican, even Giuliani, is going to win CT or NJ unless they win nationally by a decent margin, in which case it doesn't matter what happens on a state-by-state level.  PA is a different case however.  If states like OH and NM are trending towards the Dems much faster than the country as a whole, I could see PA go GOP in a race that was tied nationally.

But all of this state by analysis is irrelevant to the big picture.  Naso is correct that general election polls this far out are not worth very much because the national mood re: the two parties and the various candidates can change a lot in the next year+.  And he's also right that while the current climate is very unfavorable to Republicans, some of the GOP candidates like Giuliani and McCain tend to do much better than a generic Republican would in the current GE polls.

But all that says is that there's a great deal of uncertainty about what's going to happen.  The GOP could rally in the next year, or the Dems could build up an even bigger lead, or the country's opinions of the current candidates could change dramatically.  There's no way to know.  And to say that you can predict exactly how each state would go in every hypothetical matchup is insane.  We can't even predict what the polls will say two weeks from now.  How are we supposed to predict these matchups that far out in the future?

[Reaganfan]

I doubt any Republican, even Giuliani, is going to win CT or NJ unless they win nationally by a decent margin, in which case it doesn't matter what happens on a state-by-state level.  PA is a different case however.  If states like OH and NM are trending towards the Dems much faster than the country as a whole, I could see PA go GOP in a race that was tied nationally.

But all of this state by analysis is irrelevant to the big picture.  Naso is correct that general election polls this far out are not worth very much because the national mood re: the two parties and the various candidates can change a lot in the next year+.  And he's also right that while the current climate is very unfavorable to Republicans, some of the GOP candidates like Giuliani and McCain tend to do much better than a generic Republican would in the current GE polls.

But all that says is that there's a great deal of uncertainty about what's going to happen.  The GOP could rally in the next year, or the Dems could build up an even bigger lead, or the country's opinions of the current candidates could change dramatically.  There's no way to know.  And to say that you can predict exactly how each state would go in every hypothetical matchup is insane.  We can't even predict what the polls will say two weeks from now.  How are we supposed to predict these matchups that far out in the future?

Right. For all we know, it will be a race between George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter

[opebo]

...If Obama is the nominee against Rudy...

Neither Obama nor Rudy will be the nominee of a major party.  The realistic possibilities are:

1) Gore vs. Thomspon

2) Edwards vs. Thomspon

3) Clinton vs. Thomspon

Dems win two of those, but the third is very dicey.

[Kevin]

In August 1988, Michael Dukakis beat George Bush massively. In January 1980, President Carter crushed Governor Reagan in polls. Governor Bush beat Al Gore by a landslide in the Summer of 2000.

Polls keep us junkies' blood flowing...but don't mean crap right now.

Your right in saying that it doesn't mean crap, However the national mood and politcal enviroment is well not good for the Republican Party. 

Yeah...but I still expect Republicans to win...and some democrats I talk to think so as well. The GOP contenders (McCain, Rudy and Thompson) are stronger GE candidates and more likeable than Clinton, Obama and Edwards. GOP has been strong for Florida and Pennsylvania...to the point to where if that held...a loss in Ohio might still result in a GOP victory.

One thing with McCain though, He is no longer a winnable canidate as he seems to be turning into Bush 2 which is not good for the Republican Party.  

[Mr. Morden]

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Well, no, I'm not saying all our predictions are worthless.  Just saying that people are way too bold with their predictions.  It makes sense to say that certain candidates would be *favored* over others.  But really, in just about any of the realistic GE matchups, I think either candidate would have at least *some* realistic chance of winning, because of how unpredictable this stuff is.  Just look at your own post from earlier today.  In the summer of 1988, no one was predicting that Bush would beat Dukakis that decisively.  It's not that easy to guess how these things are going to pan out.