British Local Elections, May 2024

[Torrain]

Tory candidate for the Greater Manchester mayoral race has defected to Reform to run as their candidate. Tories have two weeks to find a replacement before nominations close.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1770787419777888553

[CumbrianLefty]

Two weeks is enough, especially given that no Tory has any chance of actually winning there.

[Oryxslayer]

Two weeks is enough, especially given that no Tory has any chance of actually winning there.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1770950610294055007?t=4LRqklW1Ejyki3Ol...

They instantly went to the default.

[Duke of York]

These elections are going to be brutal for the Conservatives. Sky News will be extremely fun to watch.

[Flyersfan232]

These elections are going to be brutal for the Conservatives. Sky News will be extremely fun to watch.

they dont have that much seats to begins with this time

[Duke of York]

These elections are going to be brutal for the Conservatives. Sky News will be extremely fun to watch.

they dont have that much seats to begins with this time

Weren’t these seats last up in 2021 when they made gains?

[icc]

These elections are going to be brutal for the Conservatives. Sky News will be extremely fun to watch.

they dont have that much seats to begins with this time

Weren’t these seats last up in 2021 when they made gains?

Yes. Even if May 2nd turned out to be a decent night for the Tories (which it won’t), they’d still be going backwards (sometimes significantly) because their 2021 results were so good.

[Torrain]

First poll for London mayor since Feb:
https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1771103272201331148

[Oryxslayer]

These elections are going to be brutal for the Conservatives. Sky News will be extremely fun to watch.

they dont have that much seats to begins with this time

Weren’t these seats last up in 2021 when they made gains?

Yes. Even if May 2nd turned out to be a decent night for the Tories (which it won’t), they’d still be going backwards (sometimes significantly) because their 2021 results were so good.

This is importantly true, I think some early prognostications have them losing half of their seats up.

However,  it think what the initial post I'd getting at is that there are not that many seats up. There's about 2600 seats up according to my count, which seems like a lot until you compare it to 2023s 8000 and 2022s 6800.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, this is one of the quieter local election years in the four year cycle.

[Duke of York]

First poll for London mayor since Feb:
https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1771103272201331148

This will be the first London mayoral election held via First Past the Post.

[Joe Republic]

First poll for London mayor since Feb:
https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1771103272201331148

This will be the first London mayoral election held via First Past the Post.

Why though?  It seems like such a huge step backward to go to FPTP.

[Alcibiades]

First poll for London mayor since Feb:
https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1771103272201331148

This will be the first London mayoral election held via First Past the Post.

Why though?  It seems like such a huge step backward to go to FPTP.

Because the Tories think it will benefit them.

[Oryxslayer]

Both Midlands

Consolidating the Midlands here cause when it comes to councils there is almost nothing in the East Midlands up this cycle.

All Up:

Cannock Chase: 18 Con – 18 Lab – 5 Green (9 Lab – 4 Green – 4 Con in 2023)

Dudley: 42 Con – 26 Lab – 1 LD – 3 Indies (13 Lab – 12 Con in 2023)

Nuneaton and Bedworth: 27 Con – 5 Lab – 2 Green (last in 2022)

Redditch: 16 Con – 12 Lab – 1 LD (6 Lab – 4 Con in 2023)

Worcester: 13 Lab – 11 Green – 7 Con – 4 LD (5 Green – 4 Lab – 2 LD in 2023)

Partial:

Coventry: 12 Lab – 6 Con [Council: 37 Lab – 15 Con – 2 Greens] (13 Lab – 4 Con – 1 Green in 2023)

Lincoln: 5 Con – 5 Lab – 1 LD [Council: 20 Lab – 9 Con – 4 LD] (8 Lab – 2 LD – 1 Con in 2023)

Northeast Lincolnshire: 11 Con – 1 LD [Council: 27 Con – 9 Lab – 3 LD – 3 Indies] (7 Con – 5 Lab – 2 Indies – 1 LD in 2023)

Rugby: 9 Con – 3 LD – 2 Lab [Council: 20 Con – 12 Lab – 10 LD] (6 Con – 5 Lab – 3 LD in 2023)

Sandwell: 17 Lab – 4 Con – 3 Indies [Council: 60 Lab – 8 Con – 4 Indies] (22 Lab – 2 Con in 2023)

Solihull: 10 Con – 5 Green – 2 Indies [Council: 29 Con – 12 Greens – 6 LD – 4 Indies] (10 Con – 4 Greens – 3 LD in 2023)

Tamworth: 7 Con – 3 Indies [Council: 14 Con – 9 Lab – 7 Indies] (8 Lab – 2 Con in 2023)

Walsall: 12 Con – 3 Lab – 5 Indies [Council: 37 Con – 12 Lab – 11 Indies] (13 Con – 7 Lab in 2023)

Wolverhampton: 15 Lab – 5 Con [Council: 47 Lab – 13 Con] (All up in 2023)





Current councilors Up. When boundary changes force everyone up, the oldest elected councilor is given priority in a ward.





2023 Results in these wards. When all councilors were up, the best performing councilor is given priority in a ward.

For many reasons the Midlands to me an outsider seems the region of unknown battlegrounds. Many councils either are too close to easily expect a winner based on past data, control is dependent on the politics of cooperation and coalitions, or both. Most of these councils cover GE battlegrounds, incentivizing the parties to use these contests as trail runs for later in the year. Perhaps when things get closer to voting a clearer picture will emerge.

Perhaps then it would be better to start with the situations that need limited explanation. Coventry seems to be rather stagnant these days, with the four western Conservative wards unlikely to change hands, and the same for many eastern Labour ones. Competition will likely focus on the few marginal wards, including the two Tory held wards of Cheylesmore and Sherbourne that Labour won in 2023, and Holbrook where the Greens already hold 2/3 seats. In Lincoln Labour face local headwinds over canceling the city’s past Christmas market and having lost their party and council leader of almost 25 years. However, they still are positioned to go on the offense against Tory overexposure from 2021, even if there may be some losses to the Lib-Dems. Labour mathematically can’t lose control in Sandwell or Wolverhampton. If anything, there are opportunities for growth in both, despite some wards having decent Muslim populations and Sandwell previously being among the most indebted councils and requiring intervention.
 
On the other side of the spectrum, Solihull and Walsall should be safely in Conservative hands – albeit for different reasons. Solihull is one of the few places that bucked the national trend in 2023. At the time the local Tories saw this success as the consequence of an extremely localized campaign. A divided opposition (that still persists in 2024 with Green defectors up) though no doubt also played a part. With numerous safe wards and the mayoral contest potentially the Conservative base a reason to turn out, Solihull will likely stay Blue. Walsall on paper should be a Labour target. In practice they failed to make the gains necessary in 2022 and 2023 to seriously rival Tory strength in the northern wards. Now half the Labour caucus, including its former leader, have gone Independent over the national party’s response to Gaza. These councilors are mostly Muslim and are responding to the wishes to their constituents. In this council though, these defections only lock in the Tory majority.

Voters are likely to give Labour a new majority in both Cannock chase and Redditch. Electorally the two are in the same situation. Both saw large Labour gains in 2023. In Cannock Chase this allowed Labour to enter an arrangement with the Greens, in Redditch this left the Tories hanging on by a thread. In both cases half the remaining Tory councilors were elected during the 2021 wave: 9/18 in Canncok Chase (10/19 if we include a defector to Labour), 8/16 in Redditch. In both cases this class is now up for re-election with all other councilors thanks to boundary changes. In both cases Labour repeating their 2023 results on the new lines will wipe away many of the 2021 Tories and given them a majority.

The Tories have governed Rugby uninterrupted for over 20 years, either in a majority or minority. What has changed since the last time Labour led is the sorting of opposition voters and growth in the urban areas. In 2023 the council tied at 21 seats each between the Tories and the Lib-Dems. The Conservatives then proceeded to lose a ward in a December by-election to the Lib-Dems, leaving them in a minority. On paper Labour should take the three wards of Admirals and Cawston, Coton and Boughton, and Newbold and Brownsover – they won all three in 2022 and 2023. This will put the council at 17 Conservatives, 15 Labour, and 10 Liberal-Democrats. Both Labour and the Lib-Dems have a few reach targets; if they get these then Labour could become the largest party here for the first time in 23 years. Either way, a Labour and Lib-Dem coalition seems likely.

Tamworth was the site of a massive and surprising Labour surge in 2023, with them winning eight of the ten wards and then building off this foundation to win the Westminster By-Election. This, however, was not enough to take power since Labour’s preceding results were so poor. The 2021 wave intake was all Conservative, and while some have defected, Labour is starting from nothing. Repeating 2023 will give Labour a majority, but can Labour repeat their success? Many blamed former reprehensible MP Chris Pincher for the poor Tory brand here, and now he’s gone. If Labour misses the majority and just become the largest party, will the ex-Tory Independents let them oust the Conservative minority in favor of a Labour one?

Worcester voters made Labour the largest party and elected no Conservatives in 2023. This allowed Labour and the surging Greens to form a coalition administration. Now after boundary changes, every councilor is up, prompting many questions. Will the Tories get wiped away once more? The ward changes are mostly neutral on this front – it will be their own failures that potentially doom them. Who will be the largest party? The two coalition partners are now rivals for leadership. It is the Greens that are surging, but the new lines and potential Tory losses are more likely to benefit Labour based on past results.

Northeast Lincolnshire looks better for Labour than it is. Yes, the party has targets, but it has fallen a long way since Brexit. Rural Lincolnshire voting patterns have crept in and this is one place the Tories have made Leave voters their own. The one piece of good news is that the Great Grimsby constituency doesn’t contain these problem wards, but these outlying wards are the anchor for Tory control. If Labour, the Lib-Dems, and independent factions repeat 2023 they will tie the council 21-21. Can Labour do better than 2023 and break the Tory majority? Can they then get everyone to prefer them forming an administration rather than the Conservatives?

Dudley is electorally close. All councilors are up on new ward lines, albeit these lines barely changed from their predecessors. In 2023 and 2022 Labour and the Conservatives each won 12 of the wards. However, Labour then lost a seat in a By-Election to the Lib-Dems. All this is to say that Labour should make significant gains off the 2021 wave class of councilors, but the benchmark is 36 Conservative – 35 Labour – 1 Lib-Dem. This would be a Tory minority. So again, Labour must improve on their 2023 wave to take control. The Lib-Dems are trying to work with various Independents to defeat Tories in some of wards Labour struggle in, but the party has limited expectations. This is both a GE battleground and one of the biggest prizes in the local elections, so expect a lot of resources and attention to go towards the Black Country.

The biggest mystery is Nuneaton. Even as the parliamentary seat slipped away from Labour last decade, the party still cleaned up locally. Then in 2018, 2021, and 2022, the Conservatives swept the council almost in totality. There were no 2023 elections here. Boundary changes mean every seat is up. Like in Tamworth last year, Labour is starting very close to their floor. Though if Labour have already shown they can sweep (in some cases old) bellwethers like Tamworth, Reddich, Cannock Chase, and Swindon, Nuneaton voters should behave similarly – right?

[CumbrianLefty]

First poll for London mayor since Feb:
https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1771103272201331148

This will be the first London mayoral election held via First Past the Post.

Why though?  It seems like such a huge step backward to go to FPTP.

Because the Tories think it will benefit them.

On the whole perhaps, though not everywhere.

Though at least as important, perhaps, was more general culture war vibes driving the change.

[Joe Republic]

First poll for London mayor since Feb:
https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1771103272201331148

This will be the first London mayoral election held via First Past the Post.

Why though?  It seems like such a huge step backward to go to FPTP.

Because the Tories think it will benefit them.

I didn't realize until now that the change was made by Westminster, instead of the London Assembly.

[Alcibiades]

First poll for London mayor since Feb:
https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1771103272201331148

This will be the first London mayoral election held via First Past the Post.

Why though?  It seems like such a huge step backward to go to FPTP.

Because the Tories think it will benefit them.

I didn't realize until now that the change was made by Westminster, instead of the London Assembly.

Yes; and it applies to all mayoral and PCC elections in England and Wales that previously used the supplementary vote.

[Oryxslayer]

To be fair, it already has benefited them in a limited way, when the Tories won the mayoralty in Bedford on massive vote spilt even though history shows Labour and the Lib-Dems there mostly team up against the Conservatives in past runoffs.

This cycle though I would be surprised if the system changes gave them anything that they wouldn't have won on the prior system, unless results are extremely tight. The electorate is just going to be that anti-Conservative. Maybe in some places like Bristol things get weirder than under two-rounds cause of perceived fptp consolidation.

 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour have underperformed - often very badly - in local elections in Walsall since the 1990s as the local party's image has been poor since a series of incidents involving a man with the nickname 'Citizen Dave' and there has also been constant problems with splint groups (often involving people associated with sad individual). It sounds like a parody, but unfortunately isn't. There have recently been image problems of a different nature: Sean Coughlan, who was the group leader for years and led the council between 2016 and 2018, was convicted on a sex offence charge in 2022. As to the present mess, it isn't a great secret to say that there would have been some sort of blow-up soon even without another war in the Middle East: I'm not sure whether a formal complaint had yet been lodged, but serious accusations (including footage) of rather grim sectarian behaviour from the then group leader and at least one other councillor had been doing the rounds.

[Duke of York]

How do people think Labour will do Lincoln and Coventry? Labour lost one seat to the Green in Coventry last year and two to the Liberal Democrats in Lincoln.

 Could Lincoln go to no overall control?

[Oryxslayer]

How do people think Labour will do Lincoln and Coventry? Labour lost one seat to the Green in Coventry last year and two to the Liberal Democrats in Lincoln.

 Could Lincoln go to no overall control?

So you want a bit more info than what I provided above? Both don't really seem competitive, because remember - this is the 2021 Tory Wave class even in the Labour areas - but...

Coventry: The Greens took Holbrook ward in 2022 on a fairly large swing from Labour to get initial foot in the door. They targeted the ward again in 2023 and got a second seat, but this time by 2%. So it's no guarantee they can go 3/3 - Labour fought hard against them in 2023 and were disappointed they lost the seat. It's not a guaranteed loss. Maybe the Greens will come from nowhere in other wards, but that is their target.

On the Conservative side they hold the wards of Cheylesmore and Sherbourne here, wards Labour won in 2023. Those are targets. The four west wards seem safer for the Conservatives, even with the odd Labour councilor elected for Westwood ward in 2022, so them falling would be an improvement for Labour on 2023.

Lincoln: Look at the seats up. Labour only need to hold 2 of their 5 seats to retain control. 4 of the 5 up they hold every councilor in the three classes, and previously won by not-so-insignificant margins. Obviously a local wave can sweep them out, but barring that control is safe.

Even though local Labour have seemingly made a feew missteps, this again is a year they have more targets than defense. I found a quote of the local Conservative leader saying that they do not expect to outrun the national headwinds. Labour won the four Tory wards of Birchwood, Hartsholme, Minster, and Moorland in 2023, and 2 of those 4 in 2022.

The Lib-Dems have better prospects. The party has been gaining ground over the past few years in the eastern corner and that second Glebe ward they won in 2023 will probably flip. They however are starting below 10% everywhere else. If there is actually any noticeable local backlash, they will probably be gaining votes everywhere, but might only see flips in those same Tory wards from before.

[Duke of York]

How do people think Labour will do Lincoln and Coventry? Labour lost one seat to the Green in Coventry last year and two to the Liberal Democrats in Lincoln.

 Could Lincoln go to no overall control?

So you want a bit more info than what I provided above? Both don't really seem competitive, because remember - this is the 2021 Tory Wave class even in the Labour areas - but...

Coventry: The Greens took Holbrook ward in 2022 on a fairly large swing from Labour to get initial foot in the door. They targeted the ward again in 2023 and got a second seat, but this time by 2%. So it's no guarantee they can go 3/3 - Labour fought hard against them in 2023 and were disappointed they lost the seat. It's not a guaranteed loss. Maybe the Greens will come from nowhere in other wards, but that is their target.

On the Conservative side they hold the wards of Cheylesmore and Sherbourne here, wards Labour won in 2023. Those are targets. The four west wards seem safer for the Conservatives, even with the odd Labour councilor elected for Westwood ward in 2022, so them falling would be an improvement for Labour on 2023.

Lincoln: Look at the seats up. Labour only need to hold 2 of their 5 seats to retain control. 4 of the 5 up they hold every councilor in the three classes, and previously won by not-so-insignificant margins. Obviously a local wave can sweep them out, but barring that control is safe.

Even though local Labour have seemingly made a feew missteps, this again is a year they have more targets than defense. I found a quote of the local Conservative leader saying that they do not expect to outrun the national headwinds. Labour won the four Tory wards of Birchwood, Hartsholme, Minster, and Moorland in 2023, and 2 of those 4 in 2022.

The Lib-Dems have better prospects. The party has been gaining ground over the past few years in the eastern corner and that second Glebe ward they won in 2023 will probably flip. They however are starting below 10% everywhere else. If there is actually any noticeable local backlash, they will probably be gaining votes everywhere, but might only see flips in those same Tory wards from before.

Thanks for this.

I know there was a lot of backlash in Lincoln due to the canceling of the Christmas market.

[CumbrianLefty]

A totally, almost literally insane Tory campaign video (purportedly anti-ULEZ) has been put out by the Susan Hall campaign. It was initially withdrawn after widespread revulsion *and* ridicule, but seems to be now back up again. No, a link will not be provided to it.

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

I know there was a lot of backlash in Lincoln due to the canceling of the Christmas market.

I mean local backlashes absolutely could be a thing, we just don't know right now if there will be an electoral impact. That will manifest closer to E-Day when people have reports from doorsteps. The issue with a hypothetical local wave is that taking 100% of their seats when Labour are up by so much nationally and playing on favored turf is just extremely hard. For comparison Labour came finished first in half the Slough wards last year, and held a large chunk of turf in Stockton but failed to make seemingly easy advances. The Lib-Dems would likely be the beneficiary of a potential local wave, but the gains would start manifesting among 'homeless' Tory voters first looking for better options. In the end, it's the 1/3 yearly class system that makes such instant changes hard.

[Tintrlvr]

A totally, almost literally insane Tory campaign video (purportedly anti-ULEZ) has been put out by the Susan Hall campaign. It was initially withdrawn after widespread revulsion *and* ridicule, but seems to be now back up again. No, a link will not be provided to it.

Is this the one where they used footage of NYC to show how public transit in London is dangerous?