Except all it means is that licenses won't be issued locally. They are still required by federal law to recognize marriages performed in other states.
Furthermore, the most likely reversal is one which overturns Obergefell's reasoning but maintains full faith and credit anyway. I suspect Barrett at least is on board with that as well as probably Kavanaugh(I think people may misread Gorsuch with Bostock but Barrett has shown herself to be for proceduralism what Gorsuch is on Indian affairs)
Good point. I'd actually forgotten about the RFMA for some reason. You'd certainly think Congress's actions under the Full Faith and Credit Clause are without question, but there have been a number of cases that those in the legal community thought were slam dunks that have either gone the other way or come perilously close (there were four votes to throw out the ACA in its
entirety, including Justice Kennedy). At the least, I certainly don't trust this Court.
Right now, I think
Obergefell can only hang on so long as certain conservative Justices just don't feel like reopening the decision (particularly Kavanaugh). If the Court ever becomes 7-2 conservative, it doesn't stand a chance. I've mentioned Gorsuch before when it come to this issue. He views discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation as sex discrimination (and it was also a question of statutory interpretation). When it comes to constitutional interpretation and the 14th Amendment, he's an originalist (and while there are originalists that argue for marriage equality under the 14th Amendment, they are definitely outliers).
Under your premise, the map of the South would look like the abortion map. Unless states would start offering marriage licenses for those in other states without actually coming there (I'm not sure if this happens now or not), it would certainly significantly affect many people (particularly those of lesser means).
Democratic legislatures should be taking action to repeal (and replace) any constitutional marriage bans in their respective constitutions. The language approved in Nevada can easily be a model for other states.
