Should this be a worrying sign for Utah Republicans?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Despite shifting left in recent cycles, UT County is a huge vote netter for the GOP being one of only 2 counties nationally to net Trump over 100k votes.

One thing I think is under looked is the increase in raw Dem votes in recent cycles. For a long time, Utah County had be pretty consistent in giving Democrats ~20k votes. It gave Clinton 28k in 2016. Then in 2020 it gave Biden 76k; close to triple. There is literally nowhere else in the Country where Biden nearly tripled Clinton's vote total.

We saw a similar theme in a few of the other valley UT counties.

One can easily attribute this to Trump's unique toxicity to Mormons and McMullin taking a good chunk of votes in 2016, but that aside it's still a HUGE vote jump for Democrats by historical standards.

Was this huge vote jump for Democrats a one time thing, or something that could eventually make Utah County closer or outright D-leaning?

Here are the numbers for reference:

[Samof94]

If Utah flips in 2048, this is a very early warning sign.

[wnwnwn]

Nah. They should instead focus on not be seen solely as the mormon interest party in that state, as mainliners or catholics may decide future statewide elections in the state.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Well Trump is uniquely awful for Utah. If the GOP runs a more traditional candidate I think Utah will remain comfortably R although its unlikely it will be as red as it was in 2012 obviously.

[Spectator]

Biden 2020 was the best Dem performance statewide since the 2004 Governor race and he still didn’t break 40%. I don’t think Utah’s one of those long-term flip prospects for Dems. Not many in the Democrats coalition are the types to flock to Utah. They’d go to Colorado, Arizona or Nevada first.

[ottermax]

What is relevant is that those Democratic votes are also increasing at the gubernatorial and senate elections... and that reduced margin does hurt Republicans in Utah....

However the sheer growth of population and Republicans especially in other areas like SW Utah mutes this.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden 2020 was the best Dem performance statewide since the 2004 Governor race and he still didn’t break 40%. I don’t think Utah’s one of those long-term flip prospects for Dems. Not many in the Democrats coalition are the types to flock to Utah. They’d go to Colorado, Arizona or Nevada first.

It's funny you say that because, as anecdotal as this is, I know someone-very much a left-leaning Zoomer, who moved to Salt Lake City for the skiing. He loves it there, but is not much of a fan of the rest of the state...