March 12-16 Primaries & Caucuses megathread

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump wins 93% of the vote and all 9 delegates in the Northern Mariana Islands: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4534404-trump-wins-northern-mariana-islands-gop-caucus/

[The Mikado]

Has anyone posted the Dems Abroad results?

https://www.democratsabroad.org/gpp_provisional_results_release

Biden 80, Uncommitted 13, Williamson 7. Biden gets all delegates because no one else broke 15.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

No resistance in Guam: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/guam-president-results

[wbrocks67]

Has anyone posted the Dems Abroad results?

https://www.democratsabroad.org/gpp_provisional_results_release

Biden 80, Uncommitted 13, Williamson 7. Biden gets all delegates because no one else broke 15.

Pretty surprising, figured Uncommitted would be higher here b/c they're usually among the most left.

[Eraserhead]

Has anyone posted the Dems Abroad results?

https://www.democratsabroad.org/gpp_provisional_results_release

Biden 80, Uncommitted 13, Williamson 7. Biden gets all delegates because no one else broke 15.

Guess Joe can thank Willamson!

[Crumpets]

Biden currently winning 55.9% of the two-way Biden-Trump vote in Washington State. Seems to track pretty smoothly with where the election seems to stand right now (same figure was 59.9% in November 2020).

Update on this figure: after more ballots were counted, it's now up to 56.3% for Biden.

[Crumpets]

Two fascinating maps: The top is Biden vote vs Trump vote in the 2024 primary. The second is the swing from the same figure in 2020 (not a perfect Atlas-style swing map, since neither includes third party candidates, but basically the same). Some really illuminating stuff, especially on the second map.




- It looks like the collapse of Dems among (rural) Hispanics has finally hit the northwest. This was already looking likely from the 2022 Senate results, but could have been dismissed at the time as being a hometown girl effect for Tiffany Smiley, who was from a heavily-Hispanic part of the state. But the huge R swings in Yakima, Adams, and Franklin counties are exactly what we'd expect ahead of a huge Biden underperformance/Trump overperformance among (rural) Hispanics in Washington State. Hard to conclude anything about urban Hispanics without precinct data, though.

- The liberal 90s tech retirees show up clearly in Jefferson, Island, San Juan, and Skagit Counties, but don't register at all in Okanogan or Chelan Counties, even though that was ground zero for them in 2020. No idea why this might be.

- Snohomish and Pierce swinging right while King and Kitsap swing left is another really odd one. Only explanation I can think of is a trends-reversing scenario where Trump is improving among suburbanites but Biden is improving in the inner city. Seems very unlikely to me. Even an "urban liberals voted for Haley" explanation doesn't work here, because that would still show up as worse numbers for both Biden and Trump.

- Stevens County staying put while all the other counties around it shift right is another confusing one. Maybe Native voters shifting to Trump/not turning out for the primary? That would only really explain Ferry County's numbers, though.

- Trump winning Whitman County is really interesting. Smiley won it in 2022 after Biden won it by 10 in 2020. That's the home of WSU. You could read that as a warning sign for Biden among university voters, but the fact that the trend started before last year implies to me this is something more specific, but also less likely to change in November.


Let me know if there's any other Washington data you're interested in. I have a bunch in an Excel spreadsheet right now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1769735023492509848

[Eraserhead]

Looks like Uncommitted is about to crack 10% in Washington and Willamson is going to overtake Phillips for 3rd place.

[Wormless Gourd]

Democrats Abroad posted
Joe Brandon: 6,910 - 80.1%
Uncommitted/Cenk Uygur: 1,136 - 13.2%
Oprah's spiritual advisor: 576 - 6.7%

Anyone know if there's country by country breakdowns?