March 12-16 Primaries & Caucuses megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mar 12 - Democrats Abroad primary (starts March 5)
     - Georgia primary
     - Hawaii caucus (R)
     - Mississippi primary
     - Northern Mariana Islands primary (D)
     - Washington primary

Mar 15 - Northern Mariana Islands caucus (R)

Mar 16 - Guam caucus (R)

[GeorgiaModerate]

I voted today at a Forysth County (GA) early voting site.  It was completely empty except for the poll workers; one other voter came in as I was leaving.  I had been strongly considering voting for Haley, but it seemed pointless after she suspended her campaign, so I voted for Biden.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It'll be interesting to see how many protest votes there are for Haley. Haley could also still accumulate delegates: Washington (assuming a good seattle showing), Hawaii, and the Northern Mariana Islands are proportional, as is Georgia for its statewide delegates provided she gets 20% of the vote. She could also get 3 delegates by carrying a congressional district in GA (look at inner city Atlanta VRA seats). Delegates in Guam meanwhile, are not officially bound to anyone. However, Mississippi/AS are effectively winner take all.

It's not technically mathematically impossible for Trump to clinch on the 12th, but it would require near-Kim-Jong-Un percentages. It is somewhat less improbable for Trump to clinch with NMI on the 15th, though the likeliest outcome is he clinches on the 19th.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It'll be interesting to see how many protest votes there are for Haley. Haley could also still accumulate delegates: Washington, Hawaii, and the Northern Mariana Islands are proportional, as is Georgia for its statewide delegates provided she gets 20% of the vote. She could also get 3 delegates by carrying a congressional district in GA (look at inner city Atlanta VRA seats). Delegates in Guam and American Samoa meanwhile, are not officially bound to anyone. However, Mississippi is effectively winner take all.

It's not technically mathematically impossible for Trump to clinch on the 12th, but it would require near-Kim-Jong-Un percentages. It is somewhat less improbable for Trump to clinch with NMI on the 15th, though the likeliest outcome is he clinches on the 19th.

WA is a closed primary though apparently. If Haley couldn't even get a third of the vote in San Francisco of all places when she was actively campaigning, I seriously doubt she wins any CD in the Seattle area now. I think Trump should be able to clean up shop this Tuesday but if not he will probably take it with NMI or Guam.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It'll be interesting to see how many protest votes there are for Haley. Haley could also still accumulate delegates: Washington, Hawaii, and the Northern Mariana Islands are proportional, as is Georgia for its statewide delegates provided she gets 20% of the vote. She could also get 3 delegates by carrying a congressional district in GA (look at inner city Atlanta VRA seats). Delegates in Guam and American Samoa meanwhile, are not officially bound to anyone. However, Mississippi is effectively winner take all.

It's not technically mathematically impossible for Trump to clinch on the 12th, but it would require near-Kim-Jong-Un percentages. It is somewhat less improbable for Trump to clinch with NMI on the 15th, though the likeliest outcome is he clinches on the 19th.

WA is a closed primary though apparently. If Haley couldn't even get a third of the vote in San Francisco of all places when she was actively campaigning, I seriously doubt she wins any CD in the Seattle area now. I think Trump should be able to clean up shop this Tuesday but if not he will probably take it with NMI or Guam.

It's not closed in the sense we normally think of the word because there is no party registration. It's also entirely vote by mail, so there's no reason to not vote. You can register  to vote at the same time you send in your ballot. You do have to include this little oath, but that's it:

"I declare that I am a Republican and I have not participated and will not participate in the 2024 precinct caucus or convention system of any other party."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

3/19 IL Primary

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Trump won the American-Samoa caucus:

Just 110 votes, but he won all of them and all 9 delegates.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/results/american-samoa

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Trump won the American-Samoa caucus:

Just 110 votes, but he won all of them and all 9 delegates.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/results/american-samoa

It was held yesterday, but the results were only announced a few hours ago, because of the big time gap.

[Wisconsin+17]

It'll be interesting to see how many protest votes there are for Haley. Haley could also still accumulate delegates: Washington, Hawaii, and the Northern Mariana Islands are proportional, as is Georgia for its statewide delegates provided she gets 20% of the vote. She could also get 3 delegates by carrying a congressional district in GA (look at inner city Atlanta VRA seats). Delegates in Guam and American Samoa meanwhile, are not officially bound to anyone. However, Mississippi is effectively winner take all.

It's not technically mathematically impossible for Trump to clinch on the 12th, but it would require near-Kim-Jong-Un percentages. It is somewhat less improbable for Trump to clinch with NMI on the 15th, though the likeliest outcome is he clinches on the 19th.

WA is a closed primary though apparently. If Haley couldn't even get a third of the vote in San Francisco of all places when she was actively campaigning, I seriously doubt she wins any CD in the Seattle area now. I think Trump should be able to clean up shop this Tuesday but if not he will probably take it with NMI or Guam.

Trump just needs 50% in every Washington CD. He got that in Massachusetts, which is a tougher sell. He does that, he sweeps. Haley also needs to crack 20%. Haley is only at 18% in CA, with about 65 percent counted, so it's not clear to me that Haley will crack the threshold.

That's 43 delegates in WA.

GA is a bit tougher. Trump needs to clear 50% in every GA CD to get there. Again, it's not clear that Haley will meet the 20% threshhold for the at large.

43 + 59 = 112.

Missississippi is the same, but it's 28 at large for wta and 12 for the districts, needing just 50% to get all of them. So that's 40 for 152 delegates. 

GA

[GeorgiaModerate]

43 + 59 = 112.

May I offer you a good deal on a used calculator?

[2016]

Ya'll need to stop waffling around. Trump will clinch on Tuesday.

Trump has 1,076 Delegates or 1,075 depending on the Network.

He is 140 Delegates short of the Magic Number.

The Contests on March 12 offer a combined 161 Delegates and I doubt Haley will pick up anywhere near 20 Delegates on Tuesday now that she has suspended her Campaign to deny Trump offically clinching the Nomination.

[Wisconsin+17]

He speaks the truth. I don't see Hailey clearing 20% in any of the remaining states when she couldn't even clear 20% in California. Trump should clinch on the 12th.

[wbrocks67]

Will be interesting to see how does better in GA. I imagine it will be Biden, since there is no Uncommitted or Philips (?) on the ballot, while Haley is still on the ballot with Trump.

[RI]

He speaks the truth. I don't see Hailey clearing 20% in any of the remaining states when she couldn't even clear 20% in California. Trump should clinch on the 12th.

Eh, I think she clears 20% in Washington. Probably a third of the vote was cast before she dropped out, and it's much easier for Dems to vote for her here than in California.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Will be interesting to see how does better in GA. I imagine it will be Biden, since there is no Uncommitted or Philips (?) on the ballot, while Haley is still on the ballot with Trump.

Williamson and Phillips are still on the ballot in GA and almost anywhere else, because ballots have been printed long ago.

[emailking]

I don't think this really matters other than as an electoral curiosity. The race is set.

[2016]

Trump now at 1,078 Delegates. I think he got the Final Delegates out of Colorado and North Carolina.

Every Network has him now at 1,078.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump now at 1,078 Delegates. I think he got the Final Delegates out of Colorado and North Carolina.

Every Network has him now at 1,078.

NYT hadn't awarded him the final 3 out of Missouri until now, not sure what the others did.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Trump now at 1,078 Delegates. I think he got the Final Delegates out of Colorado and North Carolina.

Every Network has him now at 1,078.

NYT hadn't awarded him the final 3 out of Missouri until now, not sure what the others did.

I'm not sure why NYT and others have not awarded Trump the 8 delegates from Vermont yet, when it's pretty clear that Haley is far below 50 percent (49.3):

https://electionresults.vermont.gov

Colorado has another delegate unassigned, but Colorado has 50.000 ballots left to count.

NC is 100% in, but has another delegate unassigned.

WY (29) and TX (11) have 40 unassigned delegates, but those won't be allocated until April/May.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I think it's possible that both Biden and Trump receive a majority of delegates today already.

At least it's mathematically possible, because with no competition they should sweep all delegates today.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think it's possible that both Biden and Trump receive a majority of delegates today already.

At least it's mathematically possible, because with no competition they should sweep all delegates today.

Withdrawn candidates remain on ballots, so it all depends on how many 'protest votes' are cast.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump now at 1,078 Delegates. I think he got the Final Delegates out of Colorado and North Carolina.

Every Network has him now at 1,078.

NYT hadn't awarded him the final 3 out of Missouri until now, not sure what the others did.

I'm not sure why NYT and others have not awarded Trump the 8 delegates from Vermont yet, when it's pretty clear that Haley is far below 50 percent (49.3):

https://electionresults.vermont.gov

Colorado has another delegate unassigned, but Colorado has 50.000 ballots left to count.

NC is 100% in, but has another delegate unassigned.

WY (29) and TX (11) have 40 unassigned delegates, but those won't be allocated until April/May.

The Vermont Secretary of State does not technically formally allocate delegates, but rather the state party through a resolution. Presumably the networks are waiting for some sort of indication as to whether the state party cares about Write-Ins/Blanks/Overvotes, which is the difference as to whether Haley is at 50% or not.

[2016]

Trump now at 1,078 Delegates. I think he got the Final Delegates out of Colorado and North Carolina.

Every Network has him now at 1,078.

NYT hadn't awarded him the final 3 out of Missouri until now, not sure what the others did.

I'm not sure why NYT and others have not awarded Trump the 8 delegates from Vermont yet, when it's pretty clear that Haley is far below 50 percent (49.3):

https://electionresults.vermont.gov

Colorado has another delegate unassigned, but Colorado has 50.000 ballots left to count.

NC is 100% in, but has another delegate unassigned.

WY (29) and TX (11) have 40 unassigned delegates, but those won't be allocated until April/May.

The Vermont Secretary of State does not technically formally allocate delegates, but rather the state party through a resolution. Presumably the networks are waiting for some sort of indication as to whether the state party cares about Write-Ins/Blanks/Overvotes, which is the difference as to whether Haley is at 50% or not.

Biden will get 9 Delegates out of Northern Mariana Islands which closes at 4am ET meaning he could get over the top when GA Polls close at 7pm ET and Trump will almost certainly cross the Delegate threshold when Washington State closes at 11pm ET.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The final hours of the primary season are upon us.

[2016]

The final hours of the primary season are upon us.

Trump will lose the GE. Now go away.
All Trump Supporters need to be banned from Talk Elections.