March 12-16 Primaries & Caucuses megathread

[GeneralMacArthur]

Just going to cross-post from the primary comparison thread:

Absolutely no way to spin the Georgia results as a positive for Biden. If he can’t turnout primary voters to even remotely keep pace with Trump, what hope does he have with lower-propensity general election voters, who we know favor Trump by greater margins?

Not sure who decided to suddenly invent this “primary turnout doesn’t matter” myth. It was the strongest early predictor of Obama’s win in 2008 and was superior to polling in predicting 2020, once both races were uncontested.

I don’t think caucuses are the same, or primaries on different dates or in different environments should be compared, but Georgia isn’t that, and Biden got flattened. He has an evident enthusiasm gap with every type of voter and is the underdog.

Both of those were competitive primaries.  How much did it matter for the incumbents in 2004, 12, 20?

Anecdotally, I didn't bother voting in WA yesterday, because there were no local races I cared about and I didn't care about the noncompetitive primary.  I'm very obviously going to vote for Joe Biden in November.

[wbrocks67]

Just going to cross-post from the primary comparison thread:

Absolutely no way to spin the Georgia results as a positive for Biden. If he can’t turnout primary voters to even remotely keep pace with Trump, what hope does he have with lower-propensity general election voters, who we know favor Trump by greater margins?

Not sure who decided to suddenly invent this “primary turnout doesn’t matter” myth. It was the strongest early predictor of Obama’s win in 2008 and was superior to polling in predicting 2020, once both races were uncontested.

I don’t think caucuses are the same, or primaries on different dates or in different environments should be compared, but Georgia isn’t that, and Biden got flattened. He has an evident enthusiasm gap with every type of voter and is the underdog.

PA 2012 primary electorate: R+14 (57-43) - incumbent D vs. front-runner R
PA 2012 general election: D+5 (52-47)

Not really a great barometer with an incumbent president and an event somewhat competitive/contested election on the other side! (if Haley had stayed in the race, I imagine she probably would've ended up with closer to 20% total)

[wbrocks67]

Even with the "Uncommitted" folks doing a blank ballot, Biden still gets 93% in GA

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1767941695063138763

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So, when are we finally getting the Democrats Abroad results? I wonder why nobody has talked about them yet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So, when are we finally getting the Democrats Abroad results? I wonder why nobody has talked about them yet.

They are still being rowed across the oceans.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Like it's just .... exhausting at this point that we continue to get articles like this, when one of these people gets 95% in their primary, and the other gets 83%.

Instead, we literally get the opposite last night where Wapo did a "Haley vote is a mirage!" !!

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1767879623499469159

Nearly all of the Haley Vote in GA and WA was cast before she dropped out. It was negligible in MS and HI. Republicans are unifying remarkably fast.

[wbrocks67]

Like it's just .... exhausting at this point that we continue to get articles like this, when one of these people gets 95% in their primary, and the other gets 83%.

Instead, we literally get the opposite last night where Wapo did a "Haley vote is a mirage!" !!

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1767879623499469159

Nearly all of the Haley Vote in GA and WA was cast before she dropped out. It was negligible in MS and HI. Republicans are unifying remarkably fast.

Biden still did better in the GA primary overall than Trump did on election day in GA.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Republican turnout in GA is 2x as high as Democratic turnout.

Both primaries are uncompetitive at this point.

Does this tell us anything significant for November?

Probably not, maybe that some Republicans are more fired up to vote than some Democrats.

But it doesn't tell us much about the broader Republican electorate for November, or the broader Democratic one, not to mention independent voters.

The only thing I would read into that is that despite those numbers there is NOT a Republican turnout surge in heavily black areas, which kind of puts another damper on the "Black people love Trump" theory. Especially as this is the state of his mugshot.

I'll also add here that at least one of Trump's indictments in the Georgia case relates to trying to get votes from predominately Black precincts thrown out, something that Black voters are aware of and not happy about.

[heatcharger]

I'll also add here that at least one of Trump's indictments in the Georgia case relates to trying to get votes from predominately Black precincts thrown out, something that Black voters are aware of and not happy about.

Source?

[DrScholl]

I'll also add here that at least one of Trump's indictments in the Georgia case relates to trying to get votes from predominately Black precincts thrown out, something that Black voters are aware of and not happy about.

Source?

Common sense? Black voters don't like their votes being thrown out because it reminds them of classic racist bias. In fact pretty much every fraud case centered on majority or plurality Black areas being accused of fraud.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Can we call future primary election Tuesdays "Superfluous Tuesday(s)?"

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I'll also add here that at least one of Trump's indictments in the Georgia case relates to trying to get votes from predominately Black precincts thrown out, something that Black voters are aware of and not happy about.

Source?

Common sense? Black voters don't like their votes being thrown out because it reminds them of classic racist bias. In fact pretty much every fraud case centered on majority or plurality Black areas being accused of fraud.

No it had nothing to do with race, the very obvious reason the fraud allegations were centered on the most populous urban areas in swing states was because that's where most of the democratic vote came from.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The 8 Vermont delegates have now been awarded to Trump.

Not awarded yet:

1 delegate for CO (50.000 votes left to count)
1 delegate for NC (virtually everything is counted, not sure why it's not awarded yet)
3 from GA (virtually everything is counted, not sure why it's not awarded yet)
6 from HI (virtually everything is counted, not sure why it's not awarded yet)

29 from Wyoming ("Those delegates will be allocated to candidates at the G.O.P. state convention occurring April 18 to April 20.")

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/republican-primary-delegates-tracker-calendar.html

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The 8 9 Vermont delegates have now been awarded to Trump Haley.

[2016]

Like it's just .... exhausting at this point that we continue to get articles like this, when one of these people gets 95% in their primary, and the other gets 83%.

Instead, we literally get the opposite last night where Wapo did a "Haley vote is a mirage!" !!

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1767879623499469159

Nearly all of the Haley Vote in GA and WA was cast before she dropped out. It was negligible in MS and HI. Republicans are unifying remarkably fast.

A close Election between Biden and Trump is the best possible outcome for down-ballot Republicans in GA and elsewhere.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The 8 9 Vermont delegates have now been awarded to Trump Haley.

Das stimmt nicht, Anzeigenhauptmeister: Haley hat zwar 9 Delegierte in Vermont gewonnen, Trump aber (jetzt) auch 8 - weil Haley keine Mehrheit der abgegebenen gültigen Stimmen erreicht hat. Insgesamt hat Vermont ja 17 Delegierte und Haley hätte alle bekommen, wenn sie ein wenig mehr Stimmen bekommen hätte. Hätte, hätte, Fahrradkette.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The 8 Vermont delegates have now been awarded to Trump.

Not awarded yet:

1 delegate for CO (50.000 votes left to count)
1 delegate for NC (virtually everything is counted, not sure why it's not awarded yet)
3 from GA (virtually everything is counted, not sure why it's not awarded yet)
6 from HI (virtually everything is counted, not sure why it's not awarded yet)

29 from Wyoming ("Those delegates will be allocated to candidates at the G.O.P. state convention occurring April 18 to April 20.")

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/republican-primary-delegates-tracker-calendar.html

Hawaii has been awarded now.

NC/GA seems to be something on enough of a knife's edge that it's best to wait for certification. In GA it's some VRA seat that enters DeKalb, in NC it's highly proportional and Trump is probably right on the line.

WY isn't really a normal contest. We'll be waiting until April there.

[wbrocks67]

From Super Tuesday, but something that seems rather underdiscussed is that the GOP right now may have lower turnout (or just at parity) with CA 2020's primary... despite that year Trump being the incumbent and this year having semi-opposition in Haley

2020 GOP CA primary: 2.431M (Trump 2.242M)
2024 GOP CA primary: 2.321M (Trump 1.837M)

CA is at 92% in, so it might inch closer, but not sure if there is 100K left in the GOP primary though.

Trump assured to at least get like 300,000 less votes than he got in 2020 as the incumbent president with nominal opposition.

[oldtimer]

From Super Tuesday, but something that seems rather underdiscussed is that the GOP right now may have lower turnout (or just at parity) with CA 2020's primary... despite that year Trump being the incumbent and this year having semi-opposition in Haley

2020 GOP CA primary: 2.431M (Trump 2.242M)
2024 GOP CA primary: 2.321M (Trump 1.837M)

CA is at 92% in, so it might inch closer, but not sure if there is 100K left in the GOP primary though.

Trump assured to at least get like 300,000 less votes than he got in 2020 as the incumbent president with nominal opposition.

Judging by the turnout there is a lot more vote to come in:

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/maps/voter-turnout

Probably another 25-35%, which of course will take California weeks to count.
It's obvious looking at the map which counties have finished, and which not.

[Minnesota Mike]

From Super Tuesday, but something that seems rather underdiscussed is that the GOP right now may have lower turnout (or just at parity) with CA 2020's primary... despite that year Trump being the incumbent and this year having semi-opposition in Haley

2020 GOP CA primary: 2.431M (Trump 2.242M)
2024 GOP CA primary: 2.321M (Trump 1.837M)

CA is at 92% in, so it might inch closer, but not sure if there is 100K left in the GOP primary though.

Trump assured to at least get like 300,000 less votes than he got in 2020 as the incumbent president with nominal opposition.

Judging by the turnout there is a lot more vote to come in:

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/maps/voter-turnout

Probably another 25-35%, which of course will take California weeks to count.
It's obvious looking at the map which counties have finished, and which not.

Wrong. There are at most 500,000 ballots outstanding out of around 7.5-7.6 mill. Probably less due to the timing of several counties reports. A not insignificant number of remaining ballots are also waiting signature cures that will never happen.

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status

[oldtimer]

From Super Tuesday, but something that seems rather underdiscussed is that the GOP right now may have lower turnout (or just at parity) with CA 2020's primary... despite that year Trump being the incumbent and this year having semi-opposition in Haley

2020 GOP CA primary: 2.431M (Trump 2.242M)
2024 GOP CA primary: 2.321M (Trump 1.837M)

CA is at 92% in, so it might inch closer, but not sure if there is 100K left in the GOP primary though.

Trump assured to at least get like 300,000 less votes than he got in 2020 as the incumbent president with nominal opposition.

Judging by the turnout there is a lot more vote to come in:

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/maps/voter-turnout

Probably another 25-35%, which of course will take California weeks to count.
It's obvious looking at the map which counties have finished, and which not.

Wrong. There are at most 500,000 ballots outstanding out of around 7.5-7.6 mill. Probably less due to the timing of several counties reports. A not insignificant number of remaining ballots are also waiting signature cures that will never happen.

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status

If that's true then it would be one of the lowest presidential primary turnouts in California.

[2016]

Interesting Nugget:
The "Uncommitted Vote" in the Washington State Primary on the Democratic Side has risen to 79,000+ with 84 % counted. Wonder if they exceed Michigans 101K?

[theBTMANIAC]

I can't read the tea leaves concerning the general election - we're still a lifetime away from November in the realm of political discourse - but Trump resoundingly winning the GOP primary really does seem to be a consequence of Democrats' overreach. I'm the black sheep in my family. I'm the only person who has ever *not* voted for a Democrat candidate, and even my family has been turned off by the Democrats trying to throw everything at the wall to stop Trump. My family was willing to believe that he should be criminally charged in Florida and Georgia, but the sheer number of trials and then the efforts to remove him from the ballot prematurely really bolstered Trump's sympathy among many people. Just last year DeSantis was a viable contender for the presidency, but the Democrats' actions have really unified the GOP/right-leaning independents behind Trump. These actions are now viewed as an existential threat to the vast majority of people who do not identify with the Democrat Party, and as aforementioned, that doesn't exclusively mean MAGA Republicans. I believe even Nikki would have fared better had the Democrats not overstretched. I'm seeing a lot of heterodox personalities concerned by the clear use of the legal system to try to influence the November election.

Let's be honest. We know the White House and other partisan actors are trying to influence the November election. Everyone is basically admitting this on all sides. We know there's coordination going on between the White House, prosecutors, judges, and pundits. The Fulton County office is probably the worst example of this coordination - caught literally billing for their coordination with political allies in both the executive and legislature, but it goes beyond that. Court reporters months ago confirmed the DC judge overseeing Jan. 6th trial was in contact with NYC, and despite the defense's objections, not sharing the content of those communications. I'm now wondering if this tactic backfired. If they could rewind the clock, the Democrats would be better off coordinating one or two rock solid legal disputes with the most upstanding legal teams they could muster. The civil trials and ballot efforts in particular REALLY hurt their public perception to the point even progressive independent outlets like the Young Turks are hot and bothered.

I'm sure I'll get criticized for saying all of this, but I'm a rather balanced individual. These are just my observations. A lot of Republicans two years ago were open to the idea of moving past Trump. Now abandoning Trump is essentially unquestionable to 80% of the Republican voting base: they view the sheer scale of these actions as attacks on their own families and citizenship.

In 2016 the Clinton campaign reached out to NBC and CNN to elevate Trump because they viewed him as the easiest opponent for the GE. If Trump does somehow manage to win again, the Dems' hubris is once again at fault.

[wbrocks67]

I can't read the tea leaves concerning the general election - we're still a lifetime away from November in the realm of political discourse - but Trump resoundingly winning the GOP primary really does seem to be a consequence of Democrats' overreach. I'm the black sheep in my family. I'm the only person who has ever *not* voted for a Democrat candidate, and even my family has been turned off by the Democrats trying to throw everything at the wall to stop Trump. My family was willing to believe that he should be criminally charged in Florida and Georgia, but the sheer number of trials and then the efforts to remove him from the ballot prematurely really bolstered Trump's sympathy among many people. Just last year DeSantis was a viable contender for the presidency, but the Democrats' actions have really unified the GOP/right-leaning independents behind Trump. These actions are now viewed as an existential threat to the vast majority of people who do not identify with the Democrat Party, and as aforementioned, that doesn't exclusively mean MAGA Republicans. I believe even Nikki would have fared better had the Democrats not overstretched. I'm seeing a lot of heterodox personalities concerned by the clear use of the legal system to try to influence the November election.

Let's be honest. We know the White House and other partisan actors are trying to influence the November election. Everyone is basically admitting this on all sides. We know there's coordination going on between the White House, prosecutors, judges, and pundits. The Fulton County office is probably the worst example of this coordination - caught literally billing for their coordination with political allies in both the executive and legislature, but it goes beyond that. Court reporters months ago confirmed the DC judge overseeing Jan. 6th trial was in contact with NYC, and despite the defense's objections, not sharing the content of those communications. I'm now wondering if this tactic backfired. If they could rewind the clock, the Democrats would be better off coordinating one or two rock solid legal disputes with the most upstanding legal teams they could muster. The civil trials and ballot efforts in particular REALLY hurt their public perception to the point even progressive independent outlets like the Young Turks are hot and bothered.

I'm sure I'll get criticized for saying all of this, but I'm a rather balanced individual. These are just my observations. A lot of Republicans two years ago were open to the idea of moving past Trump. Now abandoning Trump is essentially unquestionable to 80% of the Republican voting base: they view the sheer scale of these actions as attacks on their own families and citizenship.

In 2016 the Clinton campaign reached out to NBC and CNN to elevate Trump because they viewed him as the easiest opponent for the GE. If Trump does somehow manage to win again, the Dems' hubris is once again at fault.

Yeah no, this is not on Dems. Dems literally had nothing to do with Trump running again and him becoming the nominee. That is literally all on Republicans.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Welcome to the forum, and with a well-written post to boot!