Florida Atlantic University - lots of states

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Colorado -  Biden +4
California - Biden +18
Alabama -  Trump +19
Massachusetts - Biden +24
Minnesota -  Biden +8
North Carolina - Trump +12
Tennessee - Trump +24
Utah - Trump +9
Texas - Trump +8
Vermont - Biden +30
Virginia - Biden +5

https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1765861650249162906?s=46&t=I9XTmKCcu0RcP2WFeapk3A

[soundchaser]

There are some pretty wild discrepancies here. The Trump numbers are all fairly believable, and then there’s…Biden +4 in Colorado?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

There are some pretty wild discrepancies here. The Trump numbers are all fairly believable, and then there’s…Biden +4 in Colorado?

NC voting to the right of Utah and Texas is… something

[Tekken_Guy]

There are some pretty wild discrepancies here. The Trump numbers are all fairly believable, and then there’s…Biden +4 in Colorado?

NC voting to the right of Utah and Texas is… something

And only 7 points left of Alabama…

[Redban]

Scroll to page 26

https://www.faupolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Mainstreet_Super_Tuesday_Mar_2024_1.pdf

The sample sizes for each state are very low, so they may not be useful cause of the higher MOE. It’s basically like the crosstabs for national polls.

They have Biden +2 nationally though

[Progressive Pessimist]

What the f***?

Are Florida pollsters insane like their populace?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Scroll to page 26

https://www.faupolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Mainstreet_Super_Tuesday_Mar_2024_1.pdf

The sample sizes for each state are very low, so they may not be useful cause of the higher MOE. It’s basically like the crosstabs for national polls.

They have Biden +2 nationally though

I don't think it's +2 nationally, but rather +2 in the states they surveyed.

[emailking]

Shifts or big shifts to Trump in most states but then a 7 point shift to Biden in Alabama and then an 11 point shift to Biden in Utah!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

What would even need to happen for Biden to slightly expand his MOV in Minnesota, surge in Utah, but crater in Colorado and Cali on the same night?

[ralstonfan65]

Sample sizes are minuscule so these polls are basically worthless.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We already knows it's a 303 map

[Vosem]

Per the sample sizes, I think I would throw out everything other than the CA and TX numbers, which can go in the average. Biden+18 in CA and Trump+8 in TX (and Biden+2 nationally) are all reasonable numbers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No surprise MI, WI and PA it's gonna come down to

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Per the sample sizes, I think I would throw out everything other than the CA and TX numbers, which can go in the average. Biden+18 in CA and Trump+8 in TX (and Biden+2 nationally) are all reasonable numbers.

Totally unrelated but Vosem your siggy might be my new favorite on here after Crumpets.  Jinx!

[DaleCooper]

There are some pretty wild discrepancies here. The Trump numbers are all fairly believable, and then there’s…Biden +4 in Colorado?

People have been describing Colorado as somewhat of an inverse of Iowa's situation, and I think it's a good comparison. There were a ton of bad polls post-2016 indicating a semi-competitive Iowa even though it couldn't have been further from the truth. Looks like it'll be the same in Colorado for the GOP.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Full results by likely voters:

AL: Trump +20
AK: Trump +10
AR: Trump +36
CA: Biden +19
CO: Biden +4
ME: Biden +16
MA: Biden +25
MN: Biden +7
NC: Trump +14
OK: Trump +28
TN: Trump +25
TX: Trump +9
UT: Trump +8
VT: Biden +31
VA: Biden +6

The sample sizes are very low though, from 52 in Maine to 692 in California ...

https://www.faupolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Mainstreet_Super_Tuesday_Mar_2024_1.pdf

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Per the sample sizes, I think I would throw out everything other than the CA and TX numbers, which can go in the average. Biden+18 in CA and Trump+8 in TX (and Biden+2 nationally) are all reasonable numbers.

This is the correct analysis.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for ME being R

[Sir Mohamed]

Per the sample sizes, I think I would throw out everything other than the CA and TX numbers, which can go in the average. Biden+18 in CA and Trump+8 in TX (and Biden+2 nationally) are all reasonable numbers.

This is the correct analysis.

No offense, Biden only +18 in CA is NOT realistic.

[Redban]

Per the sample sizes, I think I would throw out everything other than the CA and TX numbers, which can go in the average. Biden+18 in CA and Trump+8 in TX (and Biden+2 nationally) are all reasonable numbers.

This is the correct analysis.

No offense, Biden only +18 in CA is NOT realistic.

If the popular vote is shift 3-6 points, there is no other realistic way except for CA to shift to D+ 16-22%. So unless you think the popular vote cannot shift by more than 1-2%, your claim about Cali's margin is incorrect

[Sir Mohamed]

Per the sample sizes, I think I would throw out everything other than the CA and TX numbers, which can go in the average. Biden+18 in CA and Trump+8 in TX (and Biden+2 nationally) are all reasonable numbers.

This is the correct analysis.

No offense, Biden only +18 in CA is NOT realistic.

If the popular vote is shift 3-6 points, there is no other realistic way except for CA to shift to D+ 16-22%. So unless you think the popular vote cannot shift by more than 1-2%, your claim about Cali's margin is incorrect

NPV shift of 6 pts. is not super realistic, 3 pts. maybe. But even if, national swings aren't uniform. Even wasn't vice versa from 2016 to 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Per the sample sizes, I think I would throw out everything other than the CA and TX numbers, which can go in the average. Biden+18 in CA and Trump+8 in TX (and Biden+2 nationally) are all reasonable numbers.

This is the correct analysis.

No offense, Biden only +18 in CA is NOT realistic.

If the popular vote is shift 3-6 points, there is no other realistic way except for CA to shift to D+ 16-22%. So unless you think the popular vote cannot shift by more than 1-2%, your claim about Cali's margin is incorrect

NPV shift of 6 pts. is not super realistic, 3 pts. maybe. But even if, national swings aren't uniform. Even wasn't vice versa from 2016 to 2020.

Redban thinks that Trump is gonna win on a split vote with RFK don't listen to him, treat him like SL

[Holmes]

None of these numbers are especially good for either candidate, except for NC.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

None of these numbers are especially good for either candidate, except for NC.

Biden is leading in MN, VA and ME are good for him

[super6646]

NC +12 and Utah +9. No lol