Emerson - 2-way: tie/Biden+2; 5-way: Trump+1

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/march-2024-national-poll-trump-45-biden-45haley-primary-voters-break-for-biden-over-trump-in-general-election/

Biden - 45
Trump - 45

W/leaners

Biden - 51
Trump - 49

[Redban]

Trump +1

Trump 43
Biden 42
Kennedy 6
West 2
Stein 1
Unsure 7

[GeorgiaModerate]

March 5-6, 1350 RV.

You guys are too quick, beat me to posting both of the above.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

March 5-6, 1350 RV.

In the 5-way contest, it's:

Trump 43
Biden 42
RFKjr 6
West 2
Stein 1

I don't see a version of this where they pushed undecideds.

If you check the spreadsheet/rcp average they did.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

[Lief 🗽]

Wow, between this and the KFF poll, it looks like Biden is getting a big post Super Tuesday bump!

[GeorgiaModerate]

March 5-6, 1350 RV.

In the 5-way contest, it's:

Trump 43
Biden 42
RFKjr 6
West 2
Stein 1

I don't see a version of this where they pushed undecideds.

If you check the spreadsheet/rcp average they did.

In the 2-way, yes; in the 5-way, not that I can see in the spreadsheet.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

March 5-6, 1350 RV.

In the 5-way contest, it's:

Trump 43
Biden 42
RFKjr 6
West 2
Stein 1

I don't see a version of this where they pushed undecideds.

If you check the spreadsheet/rcp average they did.

In the 2-way, yes; in the 5-way, not that I can see in the spreadsheet.

Yeah I was posting the two way. You can edit the title to include this as well though

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Emerson finally has Biden ahead

[wbrocks67]

“Biden leads Trump among voters under 30, 43% to 37%, with 20% undecided. When these voters are forced to choose between Biden and Trump and their support is included in the total, 58% support Biden and 42% Trump,”

From Biden +6 to Biden +16 when they're actually pushed. It's amazing how that happens!

Biden soft support theory = confirmed

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't matter if it's Trump or Biden ahead PROVISIONS BALLOTS ALWAYS FAVOR Ds not Rs. If Eday is close the provisions ballots will put Biden ahead in WI, MI and PA like last time.

[Matty]

This lines up fairly well with the Indiana Emerson poll

However……what is the point in polling a 2 person race when 2024 could see highest third party share since 1996?

[ajc0918]

It feels like the momentum has shifted since republicans tried to ban IVF.

[Tekken_Guy]

This lines up fairly well with the Indiana Emerson poll

However……what is the point in polling a 2 person race when 2024 could see highest third party share since 1996?

Because third party support could dwindle over time and become irrelevant?

[wbrocks67]

This lines up fairly well with the Indiana Emerson poll

However……what is the point in polling a 2 person race when 2024 could see highest third party share since 1996?

All 3 of the 'major' 3rd party candidates don't even amount to 10% total here, and that's with the caveat that Cornel West is definitely not going to be on most ballots at this point and RFK's support is highly dubious (along with ballot support as well)

[wbrocks67]

Oh wow, Biden 50/50 favorability lmao. Thank you patriots at Emerson!

[GAinDC]

Oh wow, Biden 50/50 favorability lmao. Thank you patriots at Emerson!

Job approval at 41%

Is it common to have a spread between approval and favorability that wide?

[Lief 🗽]

Wow! Biden momentum is REAL

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1765791325792694518?s=46&t=o2Rmfe...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oh wow, Biden 50/50 favorability lmao. Thank you patriots at Emerson!

Job approval at 41%

Is it common to have a spread between approval and favorability that wide?

It's not uncommon, and it can go in either direction.  People can think a politician is likeable but doing a poor job, or unlikeable but doing a good job.

[wbrocks67]

Oh wow, Biden 50/50 favorability lmao. Thank you patriots at Emerson!

Job approval at 41%

Is it common to have a spread between approval and favorability that wide?

Normally I don't think so, but Emerson also does a 'neutral' option for job approval which may play into there being a bigger delta than normal here

[ajc0918]

It's interesting that the polls are all showing a post-primary bump for Biden.

[Sestak]

The gold standard has spoken.

[Horus]

Could be worse. I'll definitely take it.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

“Biden leads Trump among voters under 30, 43% to 37%, with 20% undecided. When these voters are forced to choose between Biden and Trump and their support is included in the total, 58% support Biden and 42% Trump,”

From Biden +6 to Biden +16 when they're actually pushed. It's amazing how that happens!

Biden soft support theory = confirmed

I agree with you, but you have a very selective interpretation of things. If it were the other way around, you would just say that it was a small/unreliable subsample (which it also is) and dismiss it.

So it doesn't really confirm anything other than our own priors.

[wbrocks67]

“Biden leads Trump among voters under 30, 43% to 37%, with 20% undecided. When these voters are forced to choose between Biden and Trump and their support is included in the total, 58% support Biden and 42% Trump,”

From Biden +6 to Biden +16 when they're actually pushed. It's amazing how that happens!

Biden soft support theory = confirmed

I agree with you, but you have a very selective interpretation of things. If it were the other way around, you would just say that it was a small/unreliable subsample (which it also is) and dismiss it.

So it doesn't really confirm anything other than our own priors.

Not really true, pretty sure I've been beating this drum for a while specifically with the young voter tabs and exactly why Trump has been doing better in them. They're small samples with high MoE, but I've also been pretty consistent on with these specific groups (young voters, minorities, etc.) if you push the 'undecided'/'other', they're highly likely to be more pro-Biden than pro-Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Emerson is coming around to Biden