MTG/Mastriano vs Cooper/Beshear

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Assume we are at the end of a 2nd Trump term but the country is in deep recession, and Trump has sub 35 approval.

The GOP ticket is focusing on:
-Complete and total aboriton ban with no exceptions
-Complete and total ban of gay marriage
-Jailing trans people for being "groomers"
-Ending social security/medicare
-Making vaccines illegal
-Actively joining Russia in the war to fight Ukraine

If Dems can't win a state in this matchup then I don't think they could ever win that state. What do we all think the map looks like?

[Tekken_Guy]

[Arizona Iced Tea]

You think Rs would still win Kansas and Montana?

[Tekken_Guy]

You think Rs would still win Kansas and Montana?

Very narrowly.

[GAinDC]

I think that in this scenario, SC would also flip, resulting in the first east coast sweep for a candidate since 1984, and the first ever for a Democratic candidate.

[Schiff for Senate]

I'll be honest, these maps are underestimating. If the Republicans were THIS damn overt, they would not do nearly this well. Keep in mind that even a significant number of REPUBLICANS have turned against the party in this case, and the party is deeply unpopular, given that Trump (who through fair weather and foul has always had his supporters loyally approving of him) has such abysmal approvals. A further point is that while the Culture War issues (i.e. gay marriage ban and abortion) will be less problematic in Appalachia, the stark opposition to entitlement programs will have a more acute effect (that, after all, is the reason Bevin lost in 2019, and that's the reason even the most extreme Republicans come short of outright condemning Medicare/SS). Oh, and don't forget Cooper and Beshear are no AOC's or Harrises - they are the PERFECT Democratic candidates for red states in the Deep South / Appalachia.

Here's my guess, given all these factors:

[Vice President Christian Man]

Flip UT, NE-1 & ME-2 & maybe IA and I this would be accurate.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I'll be honest, these maps are underestimating. If the Republicans were THIS damn overt, they would not do nearly this well. Keep in mind that even a significant number of REPUBLICANS have turned against the party in this case, and the party is deeply unpopular, given that Trump (who through fair weather and foul has always had his supporters loyally approving of him) has such abysmal approvals. A further point is that while the Culture War issues (i.e. gay marriage ban and abortion) will be less problematic in Appalachia, the stark opposition to entitlement programs will have a more acute effect (that, after all, is the reason Bevin lost in 2019, and that's the reason even the most extreme Republicans come short of outright condemning Medicare/SS). Oh, and don't forget Cooper and Beshear are no AOC's or Harrises - they are the PERFECT Democratic candidates for red states in the Deep South / Appalachia.

Here's my guess, given all these factors:

Yeah at first I would have agreed with Tekken_Guy's map because polarization is so strong these days, but a Republican running on a platform to ban ALL abortions and end social security & medicare is equivalent to the Democrats running on a platform of actually abolishing the police & prisons, so a map like this could happen.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'll be honest, these maps are underestimating. If the Republicans were THIS damn overt, they would not do nearly this well. Keep in mind that even a significant number of REPUBLICANS have turned against the party in this case, and the party is deeply unpopular, given that Trump (who through fair weather and foul has always had his supporters loyally approving of him) has such abysmal approvals. A further point is that while the Culture War issues (i.e. gay marriage ban and abortion) will be less problematic in Appalachia, the stark opposition to entitlement programs will have a more acute effect (that, after all, is the reason Bevin lost in 2019, and that's the reason even the most extreme Republicans come short of outright condemning Medicare/SS). Oh, and don't forget Cooper and Beshear are no AOC's or Harrises - they are the PERFECT Democratic candidates for red states in the Deep South / Appalachia.

Here's my guess, given all these factors:

You think Rs win Alaska?

[Schiff for Senate]

I'll be honest, these maps are underestimating. If the Republicans were THIS damn overt, they would not do nearly this well. Keep in mind that even a significant number of REPUBLICANS have turned against the party in this case, and the party is deeply unpopular, given that Trump (who through fair weather and foul has always had his supporters loyally approving of him) has such abysmal approvals. A further point is that while the Culture War issues (i.e. gay marriage ban and abortion) will be less problematic in Appalachia, the stark opposition to entitlement programs will have a more acute effect (that, after all, is the reason Bevin lost in 2019, and that's the reason even the most extreme Republicans come short of outright condemning Medicare/SS). Oh, and don't forget Cooper and Beshear are no AOC's or Harrises - they are the PERFECT Democratic candidates for red states in the Deep South / Appalachia.

Here's my guess, given all these factors:

You think Rs win Alaska?

No, definitely not (AK would be double-digit Democratic for sure)...mb for overlooking.

[Vice President Christian Man]

The following are approximates:

Closest states:
Nebraska 1st Congressional District: 0.08%
Montana: .37%

Closer states:
Utah: 1.32%
Kansas: 1.45%
Alaska: 1.46%
Indiana: 1.56%
Texas: 1.62%
Missouri: 2.01%
Georgia: 2.93%
Florida: 3.74%
Nebraska (At-lg). 4.05%

Close States:
Ohio: 7.17%
South Carolina: 7.28%
North Carolina: 7.94%
South Dakota: 9.24%
Iowa: 9.40%

Popular Vote:
Cooper +13.74%
Tipping Point State: Michigan: Cooper+13.42%

[GAinDC]

The following are approximates:

Closest states:
Nebraska 1st Congressional District: 0.08%
Montana: .37%

Closer states:
Utah: 1.32%
Kansas: 1.45%
Alaska: 1.46%
Indiana: 1.56%
Texas: 1.62%
Missouri: 2.01%
Georgia: 2.93%
Florida: 3.74%
Nebraska (At-lg). 4.05%

Close States:
Ohio: 7.17%
South Carolina: 7.28%
North Carolina: 7.94%
South Dakota: 9.24%
Iowa: 9.40%

Popular Vote:
Cooper +13.74%
Tipping Point State: Michigan: Cooper+13.42%

GA would be a bigger Dem win. Atlanta would show up in droves to make sure MTG doesn’t embarrass the state further