Poor primary election in California for Democrats, at least so far.

[Minnesota Mike]

Again primary results equal almost nothing in a primary only one party is contesting! Ask Chris Norby. Ask Mary Bono Mack. I suspect this thread will vanish if these predictions fall flat.

This thread will not be deleted by me so after the Nov elections feel free to bump it if you feel like it.

BTW I find it humorous that I am being accused of being to negative for the Democrats chances when I have a couple of seats where the primary party vote is essentially tied as likely Dem and a seat where the primary vote is R+9 as only lean Republican. I honestly hope Democrats win every competitive seat but I just don't see it right now.

[Dan the Roman]

I don't disagree the GOP presidential primary was more competitive than the Democratic. I just don't think it was particularly competitive.  Now that marginal difference absolutely can drive turnout in states where the regular primaries are separate from the presidential ones.

But in California the Senate race was by far the most important election on that day, followed by LA DA, Congress, and legislature(in a few seats). Democrats outspent Republicans 30-1 in the Senate race and I absolutely believe Porter/Waters/Schiff were doing far more to turnout voters than Biden, Trump or Haley.

So I buy maybe a slight R lean, but I think the claims this is akin to 2012 are not really supported either by the numbers or context.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Precinct-level analysis of SoCal Super Tuesday results: https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1774991720301891796


https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1774994000354967747
Dems overperformed in majority Vietnamese precincts in CA-45 relative to partisan turnout

[SilverStar]

Duarte is done and Steel is underdog.
Anyone who suggest otherwise is delusional.

[Tintrlvr]

Again primary results equal almost nothing in a primary only one party is contesting! Ask Chris Norby. Ask Mary Bono Mack. I suspect this thread will vanish if these predictions fall flat.

This thread will not be deleted by me so after the Nov elections feel free to bump it if you feel like it.

BTW I find it humorous that I am being accused of being to negative for the Democrats chances when I have a couple of seats where the primary party vote is essentially tied as likely Dem and a seat where the primary vote is R+9 as only lean Republican. I honestly hope Democrats win every competitive seat but I just don't see it right now.

This is just how it works in CA, so you'd certainly be being a hack if you found otherwise.