Poor primary election in California for Democrats, at least so far.

[Minnesota Mike]

First the disclaimer. I'm writing this the day after the primary and none of the late absentees have been added yet. There should be 40-50% of the vote still out and I'm really not sure how it will break. The  in person election day vote which broke heavily Republican should be almost all counted so the hard swing right from initial results should be over but where we go from here I don't know.

Overall the total House vote is 58D - 41R. In 2022 the total House vote was 62D - 37R. So the overall margin shrunk from D+25 to D+17.

As for individual House seats with the exception of CA-47 the problem is not so much with the seats Democrats hold it is with the ones they are trying to flip. Republicans holding Biden+ seats had a really good night.

A look at some key races.

CA-09: The total party vote is 51D-49R. That's in line with 2022 when it was 50D-49R. Harder over performed that in November so I would rate this seat likely D.

CA-13: Duarte leads Gray 54-46 in a head to head trial run, better than the 52R - 48D party vote in 2022. Likely R.

CA-22: Reps lead 56-44 compared to an R+10 primary margin in 2022. This is a race I'm pretty sure will narrow as the Dem stronghold of Kern county is slow in counting once again. This is also a super low turnout for Democrats in primaries district that narrows considerably in Nov. Would put this one lean R.

CA-27: One of the most disappointing districts for Democrats. Currently 59R-41D. I thought Whitesides was a strong recruit for this Biden+ district right now it looks safe Republican.

CA-31: This is a safe Democrat open seat that I am only bringing up to point out a near Top 2 disaster. Cisneros should be OK but his margin over the 2 Republicans trailing him is much narrower than is comfortable. We were only about 3 points from having an R v R general in this heavily Democrat district.

CA-40: Young Kim is crushing in what should be a competitive district. Safe R.

CA-45: Michelle Steel is crushing in what should be a competitive district. Safe R.

CA-47: Big flip opportunity for Republicans. Party vote is 51R - 46D, primary party vote was 52-48 with Porter in 2022. Lean Rep.

CA-49: Comparatively Levin is fairing pretty well leading the Republican pack 51-49, same as the party margin in 2022. Likely D.

Again this is all written in pencil until we get more vote in.

[Tekken_Guy]

First the disclaimer. I'm writing this the day after the primary and none of the late absentees have been added yet. There should be 40-50% of the vote still out and I'm really not sure how it will break. The  in person election day vote which broke heavily Republican should be almost all counted so the hard swing right from initial results should be over but where we go from here I don't know.

Overall the total House vote is 58D - 41R. In 2022 the total House vote was 62D - 37R. So the overall margin shrunk from D+25 to D+17.

As for individual House seats with the exception of CA-47 the problem is not so much with the seats Democrats hold it is with the ones they are trying to flip. Republicans holding Biden+ seats had a really good night.

A look at some key races.

CA-09: The total party vote is 51D-49R. That's in line with 2022 when it was 50D-49R. Harder over performed that in November so I would rate this seat likely D.

CA-13: Duarte leads Gray 54-46 in a head to head trial run, better than the 2022 52R - 48D party vote in 2022. Likely R.

CA-22: Reps lead 56-44 compared to an R+10 primary margin in 2022. This is a race I'm pretty sure will narrow as the Dem stronghold of Kern county is slow in counting once again. This is also a super low turnout for Democrats in primaries district that narrows considerably in Nov. Would put this one lean R.

CA-27: One of the most disappointing districts for Democrats. Currently 59R-41D. I thought Whitesides was a strong recruit for this Biden+ district right now it looks safe Republican.

CA-31: This is a safe Democrat open seat that I am only bringing up to point out a near Top 2 disaster. Cisneros should be OK but his margin over the 2 Republicans trailing him is much narrower than is comfortable. We were only about 3 points from having an R v R general in this heavily Democrat district.

CA-40: Young Kim is crushing in what should be a competitive district. Safe R.

CA-45: Michelle Steel is crushing in what should be a competitive district. Safe R.

CA-47: Big flip opportunity for Republicans. Party vote is 51R - 46D, primary party vote was 52-48 with Porter in 2022. Lean Rep.

CA-49: Comparatively Levin is fairing pretty well leading the Republican pack 51-49, same as the party margin in 2022. Likely D.

Again this is all written inpencil until we more vote in.

I wonder if there was a certain event going on that caused primary turnout to skew so heavily to the GOP?

[wbrocks67]

I mean, yeah it seems likely we may end up with D+20 instead of D+25 in 2022.

Given that this year, Rs had a contested prez + senate race while Ds only had senate, while in 2022, every statewide race was up, this doesn't seem too surprising to me

[Holmes]

Couple of things. The vote isn't even all in, and the primary results aren't great indicators for how the general will pan out, especially in districts with a large POC electorate, like in SoCal or the Valley. For example if you look at the results in Steel and Kim's districts in 2022, there was a Democratic swing from the primary to the general.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

CA-40: Young Kim is crushing in what should be a competitive district. Safe R.

CA-45: Michelle Steel is crushing in what should be a competitive district. Safe R.

I really don't understand where the perception that CA-40 is a competitive seat comes from. CA-40 is a lot more ancestrally R and exurban than CA-45 and CA-47- it contains Yorba Linda FFS

But yeah, this is what happens in a primary where very few people under 50 are voting. I've been hearing about the age skew among CA primary voters from both Bay Area and Los Angeles-based Leipverse members.

[Tekken_Guy]

CA-40: Young Kim is crushing in what should be a competitive district. Safe R.

CA-45: Michelle Steel is crushing in what should be a competitive district. Safe R.

I really don't understand where the perception that CA-40 is a competitive seat comes from. CA-40 is a lot more ancestrally R and exurban than CA-45 and CA-47- it contains Yorba Linda FFS

But yeah, this is what happens in a primary where very few people under 50 are voting.

Because Biden won it by 2 points.

[Spectator]

There was a Republican presidential primary going on that drove the news, who do you think was going to turn out more? Still think most of these Republicans hold on in November, but they're all still very much in danger.

[ottermax]

Let's see the results in a week and then we can talk about the trends....

[kwabbit]

 Mostly agree, but a few points.

CA-09 will shift more red compared to the current total, CA-45 will shift more blue. Harder will probably end up around 47-48% based on previous shifts. Still lean D in the general, but the GOP is prioritizing more and have a good candidate. Dems are nominating a Vietnamese candidate this time in CA-45 and Steel has been very conservative. Should be a close district although Steel definitely has the advantage. Lean R, not Safe.

[Minnesota Mike]

There was a Republican presidential primary going on that drove the news, who do you think was going to turn out more? Still think most of these Republicans hold on in November, but they're all still very much in danger.

You really think the Nikki Haley challenge to Trump drove the news? Who would turnout for that primary who wouldn't otherwise vote? I'm just not seeing it.

[Tekken_Guy]

There was a Republican presidential primary going on that drove the news, who do you think was going to turn out more? Still think most of these Republicans hold on in November, but they're all still very much in danger.

You really think the Nikki Haley challenge to Trump drove the news? Who would turnout for that primary who wouldn't otherwise vote? I'm just not seeing it.

People who only vote in elections where Trump is on the ballot.

[Spectator]

There was a Republican presidential primary going on that drove the news, who do you think was going to turn out more? Still think most of these Republicans hold on in November, but they're all still very much in danger.

You really think the Nikki Haley challenge to Trump drove the news? Who would turnout for that primary who wouldn't otherwise vote? I'm just not seeing it.

I think that drove more Republicans out proportionally than Democrats by far, yes, and I think that will reflect in the turnout data when all is said and done.

[kwabbit]

There was a Republican presidential primary going on that drove the news, who do you think was going to turn out more? Still think most of these Republicans hold on in November, but they're all still very much in danger.

You really think the Nikki Haley challenge to Trump drove the news? Who would turnout for that primary who wouldn't otherwise vote? I'm just not seeing it.

I think that drove more Republicans out proportionally than Democrats by far, yes, and I think that will reflect in the turnout data when all is said and done.

We know the breakdown already. Rs turned out at a 25% higher rate than Democrats. The electorate was 49 D - 33 R - 18 I, so the 60-40ish split in the end was very predictable.

[Agonized-Statism]

The nationwide skyrocketing cost of living and chaos abroad were bound to have a more pronounced reaction from the California electorate, not to mention angst over the post-COVID exodus and budget shortfall. We'll see, but I expect discontent to have some effect.

[Tekken_Guy]

The nationwide skyrocketing cost of living and chaos abroad were bound to have a more pronounced reaction from the California electorate, not to mention angst over the post-COVID exodus and budget shortfall. We'll see, but I expect discontent to have some effect.

All of those applied to 2022 as well.

[Roll Roons]

The nationwide skyrocketing cost of living and chaos abroad were bound to have a more pronounced reaction from the California electorate, not to mention angst over the post-COVID exodus and budget shortfall. We'll see, but I expect discontent to have some effect.

All of those applied to 2022 as well.

And California Republicans actually did ok.

[Tekken_Guy]

The nationwide skyrocketing cost of living and chaos abroad were bound to have a more pronounced reaction from the California electorate, not to mention angst over the post-COVID exodus and budget shortfall. We'll see, but I expect discontent to have some effect.

All of those applied to 2022 as well.

And California Republicans actually did ok.

True, but why would they do better this year than in 2022? The only explanation I can think of is the GOP presidential primary.

[Agonized-Statism]

The nationwide skyrocketing cost of living and chaos abroad were bound to have a more pronounced reaction from the California electorate, not to mention angst over the post-COVID exodus and budget shortfall. We'll see, but I expect discontent to have some effect.

All of those applied to 2022 as well.

And California Republicans actually did ok.

True, but why would they do better this year than in 2022? The only explanation I can think of is the GOP presidential primary.

The Ukraine War created a rally 'round the flag effect for Biden with his rhetoric on defending the "rules-based international order", and the economic problems then could be blamed on the supply chain crisis from that and COVID aftershocks. Gaza and the persistence of price increases even after supply chain stabilization have complicated 2022's narrative.

[Spectator]

The nationwide skyrocketing cost of living and chaos abroad were bound to have a more pronounced reaction from the California electorate, not to mention angst over the post-COVID exodus and budget shortfall. We'll see, but I expect discontent to have some effect.

All of those applied to 2022 as well.

And California Republicans actually did ok.

True, but why would they do better this year than in 2022? The only explanation I can think of is the GOP presidential primary.

The Ukraine War created a rally 'round the flag effect for Biden with his rhetoric on defending the "rules-based international order", and the economic problems then could be blamed on the supply chain crisis from that and COVID aftershocks. Gaza and the persistence of price increases even after supply chain stabilization have complicated 2022's narrative.

Uh huh. A rally around the flag effect for a guy who had approvals mired in the low 40s throughout the midterm cycle.

[Agonized-Statism]

Uh huh. A rally around the flag effect for a guy who had approvals mired in the low 40s throughout the midterm cycle.

Certainly, a rally insofar as that it kept Democrats united and turning out, unless you want to debate the semantics of "rally 'round the flag".

[Spectator]

I checked the SOS website. In CA-27 right now, Democrats have cast about 33,000 votes in their primary. Republicans have cast about 48,000. Democrats have an over 50,000 voter registration lead in CA-27. Obviously Republican turnout is lopsided leading Garcia and o be sitting at the 57-43 lead he has right now. I haven’t checked the other districts, but I imagine it’s a similar story.

[oldtimer]

I checked the SOS website. In CA-27 right now, Democrats have cast about 33,000 votes in their primary. Republicans have cast about 48,000. Democrats have an over 50,000 voter registration lead in CA-27. Obviously Republican turnout is lopsided leading Garcia and o be sitting at the 57-43 lead he has right now. I haven’t checked the other districts, but I imagine it’s a similar story.

It takes about a month for California to count their votes.

If you want to take a snapshot right now while the count looks half finished, I'll say it doesn't look much different than 2022, no seats flipping.

Which is good news and bad news for either side.

[UncleSam]

Honestly don’t take any CA results at face value, they take a criminally long time to count.

And I really do mean criminally, as in it should be illegal to count votes for weeks and weeks on end. Other states manage to do it for similar numbers of votes (FL, TX, IL) in two days, tops (and they count 99% within like four hours).

It really does deteriorate trust in our electoral process if they just keep finding votes and finding votes endlessly. I’m not saying that there’s anything illegal happening (at least on the vote counting side), but it’s really harmful to public trust in the process and just generally embarrassing.

[Minnesota Mike]

Honestly don’t take any CA results at face value, they take a criminally long time to count.

And I really do mean criminally, as in it should be illegal to count votes for weeks and weeks on end. Other states manage to do it for similar numbers of votes (FL, TX, IL) in two days, tops (and they count 99% within like four hours).

It really does deteriorate trust in our electoral process if they just keep finding votes and finding votes endlessly. I’m not saying that there’s anything illegal happening (at least on the vote counting side), but it’s really harmful to public trust in the process and just generally embarrassing.

But they actually don't. It takes a week or more in all those states to count provisional ballots, military ballots etc.

Any primarily vote by mail state takes a while especially if you allow ballots postmarked by election day but delivered after to be counted (which is the correct system IMO). Honestly what's the f'ing rush? The final results are not going to change it just takes a little longer to find them out.

[Roll Roons]

Honestly don’t take any CA results at face value, they take a criminally long time to count.

And I really do mean criminally, as in it should be illegal to count votes for weeks and weeks on end. Other states manage to do it for similar numbers of votes (FL, TX, IL) in two days, tops (and they count 99% within like four hours).

It really does deteriorate trust in our electoral process if they just keep finding votes and finding votes endlessly. I’m not saying that there’s anything illegal happening (at least on the vote counting side), but it’s really harmful to public trust in the process and just generally embarrassing.

100%.

Even then, national Democrats know that this is a huge problem, but I think they never say anything about it because they think criticizing a blue state's election procedures gives legitimacy to the MAGA crowd's claims and is tantamount to endorsing "voter suppression".