Poor primary election in California for Democrats, at least so far.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The best way to think of the jungle primary results has always been as the absolute ceiling for Republicans barring something wildly unforeseeable.

[Senator Incitatus]

“At least so far” is doing a ton of work here. I don’t care about California data until final.

[kwabbit]

The best way to think of the jungle primary results has always been as the absolute ceiling for Republicans barring something wildly unforeseeable.

For the most part, but not always. I'd say it's like a 80th percentile outcome.

2022 primary to general:
CA-03: R +11.6 -> R +7.2
CA-10: D +2.7 -> D +9.6
CA-13: R +3.6 -> R +0.4
CA-22: R +9.2 -> R +3.0
CA-27: R +0.8 -> R +6.4
CA-40: R +18.2 -> R +13.6
CA-41: R +5.6 -> R +4.6
CA-45: R +13.8 -> R+4.8
CA-47: D +3.4 -> D +3.4
CA-49: D +2.8 -> D +5.2

Average margin shift left of 3.2 points.

[DrScholl]

People who don't live in California do not understand that the primary results don't necessarily predict the general election. There have been Democrats who came in first in the primary but lost in the general because it all depends on turnout. Republicans usually have to exceed 60% in the primary to be actually safe in the general and none of the people listed are safe or even likely to win. Democratic turnout was low yet some of these Republican incumbents couldn't even break 60-70%.

[Minnesota Mike]

People who don't live in California do not understand that the primary results don't necessarily predict the general election. There have been Democrats who came in first in the primary but lost in the general because it all depends on turnout. Republicans usually have to exceed 60% in the primary to be actually safe in the general and none of the people listed are safe or even likely to win. Democratic turnout was low yet some of these Republican incumbents couldn't even break 60-70%.

I don't have to be from California to read election results, current or past. Yes primary results are not a perfect indicator but for the most part they beat any poll. Democrats usually do outperform their primary results in the general by a small margin, more in low turnout heavily minority districts, but total party vote in the primary will usually give you a pretty good ballpark figure where things stand.

* Edit: To be clear I am only talking about Top 2 type primaries.

[DrScholl]

I recall in 2012 a number of Republicans won the primary by double digits but went on to lose in November. There was a contested GOP presidential primary and an uncontested Democratic one. The best example is Mary Bono who got 58% in the primary but only 47% in the general. And in the Assembly there were a couple of Republicans who got upset after posting huge leads in the primary. It's reckless and misinformed to declare any races safe right now based on the primary.

[Minnesota Mike]

I recall in 2012 a number of Republicans won the primary by double digits but went on to lose in November. There was a contested GOP presidential primary and an uncontested Democratic one. The best example is Mary Bono who got 58% in the primary but only 47% in the general. And in the Assembly there were a couple of Republicans who got upset after posting huge leads in the primary. It's reckless and misinformed to declare any races safe right now based on the primary.

Reckless? It's just an opinion on a message board not driving drunk. Nobody is going to affected by what I post here. As for feeling that it's misinformed that's your right but I will disagree.

As I have said repeatedly on this thread I view the party primary results as a good indicator MOST of the time. It's not ironclad, there will be exceptions to the rule and Mary Bono 12 years ago was one.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think all of the LA Rs should be fine, and the Porter seat is a good pickup oopurtunity. Central Valley ones could be close but I'm more confident in Duarte than Valadao to pull it off. Ken Calvert is ironically in a Trump seat, but more vulnerable than every other CA R besides maybe Valadao.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think all of the LA Rs should be fine, and the Porter seat is a good pickup oopurtunity. Central Valley ones could be close but I'm more confident in Duarte than Valadao to pull it off. Ken Calvert is ironically in a Trump seat, but more vulnerable than every other CA R besides maybe Valadao.

I think Valadao is in a better position than Duarte to win honestly, since the cumulative GOP vote is more R in 22 than 13. And I think Dems hold on to Porter’s district in 2024.

Garcia could still go down honestly as well. I agree that Steel and Kim are favored though ATM.

[Minnesota Mike]

I think all of the LA Rs should be fine, and the Porter seat is a good pickup oopurtunity. Central Valley ones could be close but I'm more confident in Duarte than Valadao to pull it off. Ken Calvert is ironically in a Trump seat, but more vulnerable than every other CA R besides maybe Valadao.

I think Valadao is in a better position than Duarte to win honestly, since the cumulative GOP vote is more R in 22 than 13. And I think Dems hold on to Porter’s district in 2024.

Garcia could still go down honestly as well. I agree that Steel and Kim are favored though ATM.

A large proportion of the remaining vote CA-22 is from Kern county which should be Dem leaning (the county leans R, the CA-22 portion of it leans D). For whatever reason Kern always counts the among the slowest in the state. My guess is CA-22 ends up around the same party vote margin as it did in the 2022 primary.

[DrScholl]

I recall in 2012 a number of Republicans won the primary by double digits but went on to lose in November. There was a contested GOP presidential primary and an uncontested Democratic one. The best example is Mary Bono who got 58% in the primary but only 47% in the general. And in the Assembly there were a couple of Republicans who got upset after posting huge leads in the primary. It's reckless and misinformed to declare any races safe right now based on the primary.

Reckless? It's just an opinion on a message board not driving drunk. Nobody is going to affected by what I post here. As for feeling that it's misinformed that's your right but I will disagree.

As I have said repeatedly on this thread I view the party primary results as a good indicator MOST of the time. It's not ironclad, there will be exceptions to the rule and Mary Bono 12 years ago was one.

You made an entire post saying firmly that almost every Republican was safe based on the primary results and that has not really been true historically. With Trump at the top of the ballot in November and no more COVID I expect those numbers to look quite different. Know what you are talking about before you make a post especially about a state you don't reside in.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think all of the LA Rs should be fine, and the Porter seat is a good pickup oopurtunity. Central Valley ones could be close but I'm more confident in Duarte than Valadao to pull it off. Ken Calvert is ironically in a Trump seat, but more vulnerable than every other CA R besides maybe Valadao.

I think Valadao is in a better position than Duarte to win honestly, since the cumulative GOP vote is more R in 22 than 13. And I think Dems hold on to Porter’s district in 2024.

Garcia could still go down honestly as well. I agree that Steel and Kim are favored though ATM.

A large proportion of the remaining vote CA-22 is from Kern county which should be Dem leaning (the county leans R, the CA-22 portion of it leans D). For whatever reason Kern always counts the among the slowest in the state. My guess is CA-22 ends up around the same party vote margin as it did in the 2022 primary.

And won’t CA-13 also get bluer?

[Minnesota Mike]

You made an entire post saying firmly that almost every Republican was safe based on the primary results and that has not really been true historically. With Trump at the top of the ballot in November and no more COVID I expect those numbers to look quite different. Know what you are talking about before you make a post especially about a state you don't reside in.

I think I do. Of course I make my fair share of mistakes but I would put my election predictions up against almost anyone here. As for living in the state what does that have to do with anything?

[Annatar]

This is Crystal Ball's analysis of the CA primary results and what they mean for the general. https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-feb-28-2024/

The change on average by cycle from the primary to the general was as follows:

2012: D+6
2014: D+4
2016: R+1.5
2018: D+3
2020: R+2
2022: R+1.5

Seems clear in more recent cycle the democratic shift has been quite limited, in 3 of the past 4, the vote has shifted towards the GOP from the primary to the general.


One example is CA 38, this is a 61% Hispanic seat in LA County mainly, was Biden +30.2 in 2020, in the 2022 primaries the party vote was D+17.4, the general ended up being D+16.2, a R+1.2 shift as the general had higher turnout among groups trending Republican like Hispanics. So far the vote is D+9 this year, should shift a bit more democratic by the time the vote is fully counted.

[Dan the Roman]

This is Crystal Ball's analysis of the CA primary results and what they mean for the general. https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-feb-28-2024/

The change on average by cycle from the primary to the general was as follows:

2012: D+6
2014: D+4
2016: R+1.5
2018: D+3
2020: R+2
2022: R+1.5

Seems clear in more recent cycle the democratic shift has been quite limited, in 3 of the past 4, the vote has shifted towards the GOP from the primary to the general.


One example is CA 38, this is a 61% Hispanic seat in LA County mainly, was Biden +30.2 in 2020, in the 2022 primaries the party vote was D+17.4, the general ended up being D+16.2, a R+1.2 shift as the general had higher turnout among groups trending Republican like Hispanics. So far the vote is D+9 this year, should shift a bit more democratic by the time the vote is fully counted.

2012 was the first election under independent lines, and you have to recall there were almost no changes in the previous decade for the house delegation and what competition existed was invariably scandal based. In short, between 2002 and 2012 Republican incumbents didn't lose unless they were about to be indicted and sometimes not even then.

2012 was a massacre as the CA GOP was entirely unprepared for competitive races as were GOP incumbents. By 2016 they had largely figured out the system and by 2020 were catching up with Democrats in ballot harvesting. Democrats relatively gain from the system because allowing mass ballot harvesting of low turnout groups provides more fertile ground for them relative to Republicans but the organizational gap has shrunk.

I would suggest entirely disregarding 2012 data and looking at the cycles since 2016 with 2018 as a D wave. And I would argue for more weight on 2020 and 2022 as the GOP has been improving organizationally relative to democrats

[DrScholl]

There have been shifts in the percentages as is usual and that is why you can't make predictions based with so much of the vote out.

CA-09: 53-47 D
CA-13: 55-45 R
CA-22: 55-45 R
CA-27: 55-44 R
CA-40: 56-44 R
CA-45: 55-45 R
CA-47: 50-47 R

Only CA-13 really trended Republican and Central Valley districts tend to be more Republican with low turnout as it is. None of these numbers put any of these seats out of contention in November because there is room for Democrats to drive up turnout.

[Annatar]

There have been shifts in the percentages as is usual and that is why you can't make predictions based with so much of the vote out.

CA-09: 53-47 D
CA-13: 55-45 R
CA-22: 55-45 R
CA-27: 55-44 R
CA-40: 56-44 R
CA-45: 55-45 R
CA-47: 50-47 R

Only CA-13 really trended Republican and Central Valley districts tend to be more Republican with low turnout as it is. None of these numbers put any of these seats out of contention in November because there is room for Democrats to drive up turnout.

After 2014, the vote in CA has shifted Republican in 3/4 elections with 2018 being the exception, I don't see the GOP losing any seat where they have a R+2 advantage or greater.

[DrScholl]

There have been shifts in the percentages as is usual and that is why you can't make predictions based with so much of the vote out.

CA-09: 53-47 D
CA-13: 55-45 R
CA-22: 55-45 R
CA-27: 55-44 R
CA-40: 56-44 R
CA-45: 55-45 R
CA-47: 50-47 R

Only CA-13 really trended Republican and Central Valley districts tend to be more Republican with low turnout as it is. None of these numbers put any of these seats out of contention in November because there is room for Democrats to drive up turnout.

After 2014, the vote in CA has shifted Republican in 3/4 elections with 2018 being the exception, I don't see the GOP losing any seat where they have a R+2 advantage or greater.

Blue avatars don't see any Republican losing a seat. With that said this primary was low turnout and tilted more Republican due to the closed primary so if anything Democrats could have performed worse.

[Spectator]

There have been shifts in the percentages as is usual and that is why you can't make predictions based with so much of the vote out.

CA-09: 53-47 D
CA-13: 55-45 R
CA-22: 55-45 R
CA-27: 55-44 R
CA-40: 56-44 R
CA-45: 55-45 R
CA-47: 50-47 R

Only CA-13 really trended Republican and Central Valley districts tend to be more Republican with low turnout as it is. None of these numbers put any of these seats out of contention in November because there is room for Democrats to drive up turnout.

After 2014, the vote in CA has shifted Republican in 3/4 elections with 2018 being the exception, I don't see the GOP losing any seat where they have a R+2 advantage or greater.

2016 and 2020 had contested Democrat presidential primaries at the time. The GOP obviously was concluded by the time the Cali primaries rolled around. With the GOP presidential primary being the only real game in town, not unreasonable to think that Dems will have a favorable shift in November. The turnout so far is very GOP heavy.

[SilverStar]

Valadao got 63% in the 2018 primary and than lost the General.
Altough Steel is doing much worse than she did in 2022 so not sure that a good news for her.

[Minnesota Mike]

OK it's been 2+ weeks since election day and the vote is nearly all in, time for an update.

Total congressional vote for Democrats did improve from D+17 the day after the election to D+21. The improvement was uneven with LA County swinging hard blue, Orange county swinging a little less hard and the rest of the state pretty much holding even or swinging a little right. Sorry I didn't record county totals for specific numbers, this is based on the congressional districts I did record. for comparisons' sake 2022 was D+25 so about a 4% statewide swing right. Some of that may be attributable the Presidential primary but I'm still not buying that as a huge factor.

As for individual congressional races I still see them pretty much as I did a week ago with a couple small ratings changes.

CA-09: Party vote ended up dead even (D+1 in 2022).  Harder won the 2022 General by 10 and I expect him to come close to than again. Likely Dem.

CA-13: Rematch of 2022. Primary is R+10, in 2022 primary was R+3. No way to spin this but as a bad results for Gray. Likely Republican.

CA-22: Another 2022 rematch. The margin did tighten in this race to R+9 in the primary, almost the exact margin as 2022. Almost rated this one tossup but I don't like rating things tossup so I will keep it leans Republican.

CA-27: This is the key race that saw some big movement between the day after the primary and the final vote count moving from R+18 to R+10. Still horrible compared to the even in 2022 but enough for me to move my rating to Likely R from Safe R.

CA-40: Young Kim is crushing in what should be a competitive district. Safe R.

CA-41*: I meant to include this race in my original list but just forgot somehow. This is a seat that moved right after primary day going from even to R+6. Another 2022 rematch and I expect the same result. Likely R

CA-45: Still not sold on this as a competitive race but there was enough movement in the Dems direction compared to the 2022 primary (R+13 in 2022 to R+10 in 2024) that I'm going to change my rating from Safe R to Likely R.

CA-47: Most likely CA seat to flip IMO. Went from D+3 in 2022 primary to R+2 in this years primary. Katie Porter and her millions will be missed. Lean Republican.

CA-49: Levin nearly matched the 2022 party numbers and I expect him to match his 2022 General numbers as well. Likely D.

Again 8 months out nothing is written in ink but at this point this is how I see it.

[Roll Roons]

CA clearly won’t go red anytime soon, but I’m increasingly convinced that 2016-2018 was the peak of Dems in the state. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong in November, but that’s what it’s looking like.

[DrScholl]

Again primary results equal almost nothing in a primary only one party is contesting! Ask Chris Norby. Ask Mary Bono Mack. I suspect this thread will vanish if these predictions fall flat.

[Dan the Roman]

People talk up "contested GOP primary" but Trump got 79%. It really wasn't contested much more than the Democratic presidential one.

What was contested was the Democratic side of the Senate contest where $70 million was spent and major efforts were made by local machines to turn out voters. The same was true of local races,  and those for the legislature.

I don't think you can straight up say that Nikki Haley whose campaign didn't exist in California drove much if any turnout. It looks like 1.6 million didn't vote in either presidential primary yet voted for Senate

[Holmes]

I was seeing some Haley signs in people’s yards in the East Bay. Never saw a Phillips or Williamson sign. So yes, there was more of a contest on the Republican side, even if it’s marginal.