Montana: Trump +21 (Emerson)
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Author Topic: Montana: Trump +21 (Emerson)  (Read 673 times)
Redban
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« on: March 06, 2024, 08:35:29 AM »
Biden +16 in 2020

2020 recall is also Trump +15, which almost matches the actual 2020 result. So there isn't any non-response bias or oversampling error

Trump 56
Biden 35
Unsure 9

Trump 49
Biden 28
RFK Jr 8
West 1
Stein 1
Unsure 13

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/montana-2024-poll-u-s-senate-tester-44-sheehy-42/
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Fusternino
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« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2024, 01:50:02 PM »
Bush 2004 type numbers, if they hold up.
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Matty
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« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2024, 02:09:17 PM »
Tester is not going to survive if trump carries the state by 21
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: March 06, 2024, 02:17:20 PM »
Quote from: Matty on March 06, 2024, 02:09:17 PM
Tester is not going to survive if trump carries the state by 21


Romney carried the state in 2012 by 18 and Tester won 50/46 over Rehberg sorry you are wrong

Just like users keep comparing Trump lead in IA to shift of nation to right and Reynolds won by 30 and we had a 303 map in 22
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #4 on: March 06, 2024, 02:36:51 PM »
Quote from: Matty on March 06, 2024, 02:09:17 PM
Tester is not going to survive if trump carries the state by 21

He’s up 2 in the same poll.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #5 on: March 06, 2024, 03:40:54 PM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on March 06, 2024, 02:36:51 PM
Quote from: Matty on March 06, 2024, 02:09:17 PM
Tester is not going to survive if trump carries the state by 21

He’s up 2 in the same poll.

Polls tend to overestimate ticket-splitting.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: March 06, 2024, 04:10:15 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on March 06, 2024, 03:40:54 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on March 06, 2024, 02:36:51 PM
Quote from: Matty on March 06, 2024, 02:09:17 PM
Tester is not going to survive if trump carries the state by 21

He’s up 2 in the same poll.

Polls tend to overestimate ticket-splitting.

Tester won with Romney carrying the state 2012
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #7 on: March 06, 2024, 04:11:13 PM »
Quote from: Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers on March 06, 2024, 04:10:15 PM
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on March 06, 2024, 03:40:54 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on March 06, 2024, 02:36:51 PM
Quote from: Matty on March 06, 2024, 02:09:17 PM
Tester is not going to survive if trump carries the state by 21

He’s up 2 in the same poll.
Romney only won Montana by 13-14 points.

Polls tend to overestimate ticket-splitting.

Tester won with Romney carrying the state 2012
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2024, 04:15:10 PM »
Quote from: Arizona Iced Tea on March 06, 2024, 04:11:13 PM
Quote from: Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers on March 06, 2024, 04:10:15 PM
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on March 06, 2024, 03:40:54 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on March 06, 2024, 02:36:51 PM
Quote from: Matty on March 06, 2024, 02:09:17 PM
Tester is not going to survive if trump carries the state by 21

He’s up 2 in the same poll.
Romney only won Montana by 13-14 points.

Polls tend to overestimate ticket-splitting.

Tester won with Romney carrying the state 2012
..


Ds are favored to hold the S because the S isn't Gerrymandering like the H but I posted a poll Lawler is gone he is only up 50/48
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The Economy is Getting Worse
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« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2024, 04:17:09 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on March 06, 2024, 03:40:54 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on March 06, 2024, 02:36:51 PM
Quote from: Matty on March 06, 2024, 02:09:17 PM
Tester is not going to survive if trump carries the state by 21

He’s up 2 in the same poll.

Polls tend to overestimate ticket-splitting.
They underestimated ticket splitting in Maine 2020.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2024, 04:20:15 PM »
Quote from: The Economy is Getting Worse on March 06, 2024, 04:17:09 PM
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on March 06, 2024, 03:40:54 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on March 06, 2024, 02:36:51 PM
Quote from: Matty on March 06, 2024, 02:09:17 PM
Tester is not going to survive if trump carries the state by 21

He’s up 2 in the same poll.

Polls tend to overestimate ticket-splitting.
They underestimated ticket splitting in Maine 2020.

One exception doesn’t disprove a general trend
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The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
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« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2024, 04:21:42 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on March 06, 2024, 04:20:15 PM
Quote from: The Economy is Getting Worse on March 06, 2024, 04:17:09 PM
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on March 06, 2024, 03:40:54 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on March 06, 2024, 02:36:51 PM
Quote from: Matty on March 06, 2024, 02:09:17 PM
Tester is not going to survive if trump carries the state by 21

He’s up 2 in the same poll.

Polls tend to overestimate ticket-splitting.
They underestimated ticket splitting in Maine 2020.

One exception doesn’t disprove a general trend
MT 2024 seems more like ME 2020 than other states. Biden is toast.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #12 on: March 06, 2024, 04:25:51 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on March 06, 2024, 04:20:15 PM
Quote from: The Economy is Getting Worse on March 06, 2024, 04:17:09 PM
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on March 06, 2024, 03:40:54 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on March 06, 2024, 02:36:51 PM
Quote from: Matty on March 06, 2024, 02:09:17 PM
Tester is not going to survive if trump carries the state by 21

He’s up 2 in the same poll.

Polls tend to overestimate ticket-splitting.
They underestimated ticket splitting in Maine 2020.

One exception doesn’t disprove a general trend
One thing about Maine Senate 2020 was Biden himself did noticeably worse in Maine than expected. He was supposed to carry the state by 12-13, but only won it by 9%. That might not be the reason why Collins won, but it certainly has an impact.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: March 06, 2024, 05:12:53 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2024, 05:17:32 PM by Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers »
I have ALLRED, Brown, Tester and Powell winning, because it's easier for Ds to hold the S than the Hbecause it's not gerrymander but it's easy for Ds to get the Filibuster proof To because 75 of contested races are in CA or NY

Lawler isn't fav because he lives in NY.


We only lost the S  before COVID in 2018 since COVID, Ds have held serve on the S


Users just gotta wait til we vote
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #14 on: March 06, 2024, 08:52:48 PM »
Obama almost winning here in 2008 was something.
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super6646
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« Reply #15 on: March 09, 2024, 03:02:00 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on March 06, 2024, 08:52:48 PM
Obama almost winning here in 2008 was something.

I mean Clinton won it in 1992, so its not ancient history. North and South Dakota being competitive in that election honestly seems far more quirky with today's lens.
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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: March 12, 2024, 10:42:51 PM »
Quote from: super6646 on March 09, 2024, 03:02:00 PM
Quote from: Eraserhead on March 06, 2024, 08:52:48 PM
Obama almost winning here in 2008 was something.

I mean Clinton won it in 1992, so its not ancient history. North and South Dakota being competitive in that election honestly seems far more quirky with today's lens.


South Dakota was very close in 1992 as well. While we like to think of presidential elections as 51 individual contests, the reality is there are usually trends that persist across the map. The Dakotas are pretty similar to Montana ideologically, so it makes sense that if one is close, the other will be too.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #17 on: March 12, 2024, 10:44:30 PM »
Quote from: Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 12, 2024, 10:42:51 PM
Quote from: super6646 on March 09, 2024, 03:02:00 PM
Quote from: Eraserhead on March 06, 2024, 08:52:48 PM
Obama almost winning here in 2008 was something.

I mean Clinton won it in 1992, so its not ancient history. North and South Dakota being competitive in that election honestly seems far more quirky with today's lens.


South Dakota was very close in 1992 as well. While we like to think of presidential elections as 51 individual contests, the reality is there are usually trends that persist across the map. The Dakotas are pretty similar to Montana ideologically, so it makes sense that if one is close, the other will be too.

There are also fewer people to persuade in those states.
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