wow, I'm shocked you think that! *sarcasm*
This is about how well Warnock did against Herschel Walker with Black voters in 2022. I don't know if Biden will do that well, but he could come close
Warnock was literally the perfect candidate for Georgia and Walker was a terrible, terrible opponent with countless scandals. Warnock put up almost Obama numbers in Black neighborhoods. But Georgia's Black population, especially in East Atlanta and the Atlanta suburbs is much more similar to Maryland's (higher income, more educated), and less similar to more heavily working class Black communities like those in the Philly or Detroit area. Those working class, more hardscrabble Black voters are who Trump is more likely to pull from, not educated suburbanites in Henry or Douglas county. Hell, even in 2020, when Trump did better than before in most Black precincts, there were some mostly Black upper middle income areas, like far East DeKalb and the PG periphery, where he declined even from 2016.
Can you imagine if Red avatars on here were constantly predicting that white evangelicals were about to swing massively to the Democrats? People would rightfully laugh them off the forum.
That's how the "Trump will realign Black voters to the Republicans" theory sounds to me
I certainly do not think there will be a massive realignment, but in a close election it would not take much to shift the balance. And white Evangelicals all share a specific form of Christianity. Black Americans are just as ideologically diverse as the white population, especially the younger generations. I think we will continue to see racial depolarization, and I think Trump could hit 15% with the Black vote. I don't think it would be out of the question to see him hit 25% with Black men under age 50. The question is, will Biden see gains with white voters, especially more educated and older white voters? Some signs point to yes.
