PA (Axis Research/ @PAllies4Energy): Biden + 1

[ralstonfan65]

2024 Pennsylvania GE:

Biden 40% (+1)
Trump 39%
Kennedy 8%
Stein 2%
West 1%
.
Biden 39% (+20)
Haley 19%
Kennedy 13%
West 1%
Stein 1%

Axis Research/@PAllies4Energy, 601 RV, 2/25-27

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/2900823/poll-pennsylvania-voters-reject-biden-lng-pause/

Extremely bizarre poll.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

They should have done H2H

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna win

[Illiniwek]

I believe Biden wins Pennsylvania.

[Vosem]

The polls showing Biden doing very well in Pennsylvania relative to national numbers, but very poorly in New York, are very strange, because much of the demographic composition similar and they usually swing together. In 2022 (in general, since COVID) you've seen an unusual amount of focus on gubernatorial elections*, so maybe this is explainable by Shapiro being a very popular Governor and Hochul a very unpopular Governor, or indeed by a swing which is incredibly localized to the New York City metropolitan area**, but it remains very strange that we think Biden is very strong in PA but very weak in NY.

*Prior to 2022, there was no hard-and-fast rule about whether turnout was higher for gubernatorial or senatorial elections; but in 2022 the gubernatorial races very consistently received more voter interest.

**Also kind of forecast by 2022 -- together with LA, as a consequence of the Abbott deportations causing illegal immigration to be unusually concentrated in those cities?

[Lief 🗽]

It’s very bizarre that some polls show Haley beating Biden in a landslide while others show the opposite.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It’s very bizarre that some polls show Haley beating Biden in a landslide while others show the opposite.

He’d probably beat the pants off of her if we’re being real here. Trump would do whatever he could to sabotage her general election chances.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

It’s very bizarre that some polls show Haley beating Biden in a landslide while others show the opposite.

I think it’s that Trump voters go to RFK

[Octowakandi]

Biden is gonna win

No votes have been counted. Count votes, not polls.

[wbrocks67]

literally never heard of this pollster, but funny that it aligns exactly with the PA average right now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna win

No votes have been counted. Count votes, not polls.

These tracking polls are hilarious, they keep Trump up by 2 and what happened last time all of Trump narrow leads were wiped out by provision ballot

Provisions ballots go overwhelmed D