Rate the NJ-SEN primary as of March 2024

[Tekken_Guy]

Rate the NJ-SEN primary as of March 2024.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lean Kim, verging on Likely Kim. Murphy just doesn't seem to be doing too well.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Pure tossup, it's actual political skill versus the New Jersey machines. I'm not sure which will end up victorious.

[Tekken_Guy]

Pure tossup, it's actual political skill versus the New Jersey machines. I'm not sure which will end up victorious.

What do you think could change the calculus of this race?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Pure tossup, it's actual political skill versus the New Jersey machines. I'm not sure which will end up victorious.

What do you think could change the calculus of this race?

I would like to see how the actual campaigning goes. For now, other than us following the county line news, it's been pretty quiet so far. There are probably many in our state who don't even know who the candidates are yet.

[Tekken_Guy]

Pure tossup, it's actual political skill versus the New Jersey machines. I'm not sure which will end up victorious.

What do you think could change the calculus of this race?

I would like to see how the actual campaigning goes. For now, other than us following the county line news, it's been pretty quiet so far. There are probably many in our state who don't even know who the candidates are yet.

My take is that it’s Kim’s race to lose. It looks up he’ll end up at around 40% of the county line, so a disadvantage but not an insurmountable one, and he’ll likely do far better off the line in Tammy Murphy counties than she will in his counties.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/NickTagliaferro/status/1769724933599371756

[LabourJersey]

Voted Likely Kim.

Tammy Murphy's campaign increasingly feels like a doomed enterprise.

Shocking stuff - only a few months ago I assumed she would win.

[President Johnson]

Likely Kim

[Senator Incitatus]

Lean Kim. I warned everyone it would be an uphill battle for Kim, and it was, but he appears very nearly there. Murphy is running a Martha Coakley-tier campaign and would genuinely risk losing the general election if nominated.

[KaiserDave]

Likely Kim, and honestly I think he'd win even if Murphy had the line in every county, the fact that she won't is a total catastrophe for her.

[oldtimer]

Lean Kim. I warned everyone it would be an uphill battle for Kim, and it was, but he appears very nearly there. Murphy is running a Martha Coakley-tier campaign and would genuinely risk losing the general election if nominated.

Imagine if Republicans had run Sheehy or McCormick in New Jersey.

[S019]

Lean Kim. I warned everyone it would be an uphill battle for Kim, and it was, but he appears very nearly there. Murphy is running a Martha Coakley-tier campaign and would genuinely risk losing the general election if nominated.

I don't understand why she hasn't tapped into her personal bank account yet. She easily has the ability to have dumped $30 million in scathing negative ads to define Kim, and just didn't... It's just political malpractice to not go out and define your opponent. The money advantage only exists if you use it, and this is a head-scratching decision to not use it. She could've just flooded the airwaves and destroyed his favorables and for some bizarre reason chose not to.

[Roll Roons]

I was reluctant to bet against the machine/line for a while, but I'll believe it now. Lean Kim.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Lean Kim. I warned everyone it would be an uphill battle for Kim, and it was, but he appears very nearly there. Murphy is running a Martha Coakley-tier campaign and would genuinely risk losing the general election if nominated.

I was wondering who her campaign was reminding me of and I think you hit the nail on the head.

On paper Murphy should have this. Plenty of money. Should be able to lean on a connection to a governor who is popular among democrats. She should have more broad based support compared to a Congressmen whose support would be more regional.

She is instead running a "I deserve it" campaign that is tied to corrupt NJ Dems. It is just bafflingly bad.  

[brucejoel99]

Lean Kim. I warned everyone it would be an uphill battle for Kim, and it was, but he appears very nearly there. Murphy is running a Martha Coakley-tier campaign and would genuinely risk losing the general election if nominated.

I don't understand why she hasn't tapped into her personal bank account yet. She easily has the ability to have dumped $30 million in scathing negative ads to define Kim, and just didn't... It's just political malpractice to not go out and define your opponent. The money advantage only exists if you use it, and this is a head-scratching decision to not use it. She could've just flooded the airwaves and destroyed his favorables and for some bizarre reason chose not to.

In 2016, they self-funded $12M to buy enough Lines to box Fulop & Sweeney out of the 2017 race; now that Phil's an incumbent Governor, they probably just figured they need not use any of their own money on sending Tammy to the Senate if they could - they assumed - achieve the same outcome just through efficient use of gubernatorial influence & NJ taxpayer dollars allocated for state salaries.

[The Mikado]

Lean Kim. I warned everyone it would be an uphill battle for Kim, and it was, but he appears very nearly there. Murphy is running a Martha Coakley-tier campaign and would genuinely risk losing the general election if nominated.

Imagine if Republicans had run Sheehy or McCormick in New Jersey.

Or New Jersey's favorite son, Doctor Oz.

[oldtimer]

Lean Kim. I warned everyone it would be an uphill battle for Kim, and it was, but he appears very nearly there. Murphy is running a Martha Coakley-tier campaign and would genuinely risk losing the general election if nominated.

Imagine if Republicans had run Sheehy or McCormick in New Jersey.

Or New Jersey's favorite son, Doctor Oz.

That one too.

What is it with Republicans running candidates in the wrong state.

[brucejoel99]

Lean Kim. I warned everyone it would be an uphill battle for Kim, and it was, but he appears very nearly there. Murphy is running a Martha Coakley-tier campaign and would genuinely risk losing the general election if nominated.

Thankfully that should mean she won't make the general:

https://twitter.com/conorjrogers/status/1771965098199855498https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1771940865268707697

[brucejoel99]

Well, that's that, then!

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1771981599845818731

I'd like to claim my official victory as the sole Safe Kim voter ITT:

[Progressive Pessimist]

Okay, now it's obviously safe Kim for sure.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1772041038636429626https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1772036407562842577https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1772036411283095976

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

This was a bizarre race, but I think Murphy's biggest problem was that she never came close to articulating why she was a better choice than a well-liked, multi-term normie Dem congressman who had 95% of the same political views as her.

[Lambsbread]

This was a bizarre race, but I think Murphy's biggest problem was that she never came close to articulating why she was a better choice than a well-liked, multi-term normie Dem congressman who had 95% of the same political views as her.

What I found most bizarre about her announcement video was that she positioned herself as the only candidate offering a vision on the actual issues (patently false) and that she was more concerned with unity than divisive partisan politics (laughably false)