Primaries to watch Tuesday (3/5/24) (Super Tuesday) (outside of presidential)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AL-2 D: Figures-Daniels RUNOFF
AL-7 R: Horn
NC-1 R: Buckhout
NC-6 R: McDowell-Walker RUNOFF
Sec State R: Brown


Uncalled:

TX Railroad Commissioner R
TX-7 R
TX-12 D
TX-12 R
TX-18 R
TX-23 D
TX-23 R
TX-27 D
TX-29 R
TX-31 D
TX-32 D
TX-32 R
TX-35 R
AL-1 R
AL-2 R
NC-13 R
Auditor R
Labor Commissioner R
Superintendent R
Treasurer R

[TechbroMBA]

Porter can’t run a race, who’d have guessed?

[Holmes]

Doesn't look like a Dem shutout in CA-22 so far.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/averyhatestwt/status/1765231921150534050

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

NBC calls it for Schiff and Garvey

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

TX-12 R: Goldman-O'Shea RUNOFF
TX-29 R: Garcia-Gaza RUNOFF
TX-32 R: Blewett-Day RUNOFF


Uncalled:

TX Railroad Commissioner R
TX-7 R
TX-12 D
TX-18 R
TX-23 D
TX-23 R
TX-27 D
TX-31 D
TX-32 D
TX-35 R
AL-1 R
AL-2 R
NC-13 R
Auditor R
Labor Commissioner R
Superintendent R
Treasurer R

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

BIG SCHIFF.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1765236754955501796

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Embarrassed Lee and Porter they ran like Third party candidates in a D Primary

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AL-2 R: Brewbaker-Dobson RUNOFF
NC Labor Commissioner R: Farley
NC Treasurer R: Briner

Uncalled:

TX Railroad Commissioner R
TX-7 R
TX-12 D
TX-18 R
TX-23 D
TX-23 R
TX-27 D
TX-31 D
TX-32 D
TX-35 R
AL-1 R
NC-13 R
Auditor R
Superintendent R

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AL-1 R: Moore

Uncalled:

TX Railroad Commissioner R
TX-7 R
TX-12 D
TX-18 R
TX-23 D
TX-23 R
TX-27 D
TX-31 D
TX-32 D
TX-35 R
NC-13 R
Auditor R
Superintendent R

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Wow, Barry Moore won. Given what was outstanding for a while I thought Jerry Carl had it.

[Utah Neolib]

Wow, Barry Moore won. Given what was outstanding for a while I thought Jerry Carl had it.

I don’t want this guy to succeed Tuberville in a decade.

[Oryxslayer]

Wow, Barry Moore won. Given what was outstanding for a while I thought Jerry Carl had it.

I think there was a reporting error in Mobile that made it seem like there were more votes than there were. Cause I was definitely under the same impression.

[Greedo punched first]

Wow, Barry Moore won. Given what was outstanding for a while I thought Jerry Carl had it.

It was because of ideology.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I predict Schiff 28/20 I was right 37/29 the Berkeley poll lied having Garvey ahead, Schiff should win 53)47

[TechbroMBA]

Dixon’s performance in CA-16 is embarrassing.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

It is interesting that Schiff is the only candidate who does worse in the Special vs for the Full term. All the other candidates do noticeably better.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

We're going to get as many as 6 new Republican House members from North Carolina. 3 guaranteed flips, one possible flip, and two safe seats with the incumbent retiring. Disgusting!

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Primaries to watch at the House level, IMO:

Mix:

Note that Republicans always do better in CA primaries than they "should" because of turnout patterns, but this year because of high turnout for the GOP primary this will be exaggerated. All "straw poll" figures should be interpreted as hitting the GOP ceiling.

CA-3: This will be a straw poll for how a race between Kevin Kiley and Jessica Morse will go. This seat was R+8 in 2022, but it's trending leftwards and could be competitive in a good Democratic year.

For what it’s worth, I’ve only seen a few Morse signs. I don’t think I’ve seen any Kiley signs or any for the independent that will surely take third. Granted, I haven’t been up in the Sierras at all this year, just the parts of this district around Sacramento.

I’m assuming that both Morse and Kiley are waiting for the general since they’re shoo-ins tonight.

54% reporting in CA-03

Kiley (R) 51.2%
Morse (D) 46.8%
Smith (NPP) 2%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

California (all D v R):

Senate: Schiff and Garvey
Senate Special: Schiff and Garvey
CA-1: LaMalfa and Yee
CA-2: Huffman and Coulombe
CA-3: Kiley and Morse
CA-4: Thompson and Munn
CA-5: McClintock and Barkley
CA-6: Bera and Bish
CA-7: Matsui and Silva
CA-9: Harder and Lincoln
CA-10 Slot 1: DeSaulnier
CA-11: Pelosi and Lou
CA-12 Slot 1: Simon
CA-14 Slot 1: Swalwell
CA-17: Khanna and Chen
CA-18: Lofgren and Hernandez
CA-19: Panetta and Anderson
CA-24: Carbajal and Cole
CA-25 Slot 1: Ruiz
CA-26: Brownley and Koslow
CA-27: Garcia and Whitesides
CA-28: Chu and Verlato
CA-29 Slot 1: Rivas

Uncalled:
CA-10 Slot 2
CA-12 Slot 2
CA-14 Slot 2
CA-25 Slot 2
CA-29 Slot 2
CA-16
CA-20
CA-22
CA-30 and above

[Vosem]

The numbers from CA are disproportionately-Democratic early vote, right? Otherwise they're actually quite good for Democrats, on the whole.

Notably, CA-31 is actually within single digits of being an R-on-R runoff (Cisneros, the first-placed Democrat, leads Casas, the second Republican candidate, by just 9 points, or 24-15), but all of the other options are double-digits apart: Salas leads Mathys 30-19 (or by 11 points) in CA-22, and Min leads Ukropina 30-12 (by 28 points).

[Oryxslayer]

Some immediate thoughts on the CA races before signing off. As usual in CA, this is both not the final result and nowhere near a perfect indicator for November. Especially now when enthusiasm is supposedly low and the GOP are likely to end up overshooting their baseline thanks to Trump and Haley. So grains of salt within grains of salt.

That all said, the initial votes in the competitive districts point toward competitive races in the future. I don't think there's any more that could be read at his present point in time. The one exception to this is CA-41 where Calvert is way below baseline. I think we can all accept that Dem voters here are much much more likely to vote than the GOP in a primary, but it's still interesting to note the divergences.

Also, CA-22 top-two shenanigans again disappoint people from outside CA. Every year there are articles on a party getting locked out of a race it wants to have a candidate in, and it so rarely happens. Cause the average person who votes in a primary is likely to understand that predicament. A lockout needs to sneak up on the electorate, like in SD-04.


Lateefah Simon isn't putting this initial vote in CA-12 away like expected. She though is still the likely eventual winner.

Close race for top-two in CA-16 between Sam Liccardo, Joe Simitian, and Evan Low in that order. D v D runoff.

Currently Dem Marisa Wood is ahead of third-place republican Mike Boudreaux in CA-20. This de Facto means frontrunner Vince Fong is the winner. But will it stay that way, or will the runoff end up R v R.

State Assemblywoman Laura Friedman seems set to advance in Schiffs former seat. Right now her opponent would be a republican, making her de facto the eventual winner.

Similarly, a close race in CA-31 between Republican Daniel Martinez and Democratic Susan Rubio for the second slot. Cisneros seems likely to advance, but not by a margin safe if he has to face another Democrat.

National Dems are going to be sad if the candidate-specific results in OC stay as they are. Derrek Tran is slightly ahead of Nguyen-Penaloza n CA-45 and Min is further ahead of Weiss.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

The numbers from CA are disproportionately-Democratic early vote, right? Otherwise they're actually quite good for Democrats, on the whole.

That was kind of my thought looking at CA-03

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CA-32: Sherman and Thompson
CA-34 Slot 1: Gomez
CA-35: Torres and Cargile
CA-36 Slot 1: Lieu
CA-37 Slot 1: Kamlager
CA-38: Sanchez and Ching
CA-40: Kim and Kerr
CA-41: Calvert and Rollins
CA-42: Garcia and Briscoe
CA-43 Slot 1: Waters
CA-45 Slot 1: Steel
CA-48 Slot 1: Issa
CA-49: Levin and Gunderson
CA-50: Peters and Bono
CA-51: Jacobs and Wells

Uncalled:

CA-10 Slot 2
CA-12 Slot 2
CA-14 Slot 2
CA-25 Slot 2
CA-29 Slot 2
CA-16
CA-20
CA-22
CA-30
CA-31
CA-34 Slot 2
CA-36 Slot 2
CA-37 Slot 2
CA-43 Slot 2
CA-45 Slot 2
CA-47
CA-48 Slot 2
TX Railroad Commissioner R
TX-7 R
TX-12 D
TX-18 R
TX-23 D
TX-23 R
TX-27 D
TX-31 D
TX-32 D
TX-35 R
NC-13 R
Auditor R
Superintendent R