Primaries to watch Tuesday (3/5/24) (Super Tuesday) (outside of presidential)

[WV222]

Primaries to watch Tuesday (outside of presidential) (that is known and reasonably expected coming in, no AOC-style upsets included)

-AL-2 Dem (free-for-all with not much funding for a seat that will go the Dems way in November. Likely a 3-way race for the nod between Napoleon Bracy Jr., Anthony Daniels, Shomari Figures)

-AL-1 GOP (Member-vs-member primary between Jerry Carl and Barry Moore. No Trump endorsement. Right-wing national figures (Cruz, MTG, Biggs) and those PACs involved are backing Moore, local endorsements breaking for Carl, Carl led in a poll last month, no clear frontrunner)

-CA-SEN (It will come down to if it is Schiff/Garvey or Schiff/Porter in November, Garvey has the momentum and even could top the primary if a late poll pans out. Porter still has a chance if her promotion of Eric Early works out enough against Schiff's promotion of Garvey)

-CA-13 (Head-to-head contest in the tossup seat between incumbent GOP John Duarte and Dem Adam Gray. Duarte winning the fundraising massively and we will see if Duarte using that to get the advantage into November)

-CA-16 (An open primary for Dem Anna Eshoo's open seat. 5 Dem candidate carry endorsements from at least 1 member of Congress. Eshoo's pick, Joe Simitian, is not racking in a lot of endorsements. He has the support of environmental groups, while progressives (Jayapal, Raskin, Khanna) are lining up behind Evan Low and moderates (Golden, Crow, Moulton) are backing Peter Dixon. A different candidate, Sam Liccardo with the breaking of Linda Sanchez, the mayor of San Jose, and the San Francisco Chronicle has the fundraising and polling advantage to lock in the top spot into November)

-CA-20 (The primary for Kevin McCarthy's open seat will be more interesting then expected. Vince Fong has the Trump endorsement on top of being McCarthy's choice for the seat, but Mike Boudreaux's fundraising prowess and endorsements from former Trump advisors Ric Grenell and Kash Patel might make this more interesting if he can get past Dem Marisa Wood for 2nd)

-CA-30 (This is Adam Schiff's open seat. Progressives (Jayapal, Raskin, Pocan) with the LA Times has backed Laura Friedman, Mike Feuer has the backing of LA Mayor Karen Bass and former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, LAUSD board member Nick Melovin has locked up no elected endorsements, but has a list of newspapers backing him, Anthony Portantino also has no elected endorsements but has a bunch of labor unions backing him, and does Ben Savage's name ID make him a wild card in terms of effect in the race. Five candidates have raised (donated or self-funded) over $1 million for this primary)

-CA-31 (Incumbent Gil Cisneros is not strong at all right now, and signs point to this race being who finishes second from the Dems to give him a run for his money in November. State Sen. Bob Archuleta has carries the backing of Grace Napolitano, State Treasurer Fiona Ma, and some union locals. Susan Rubio is backed by both teacher's unions in the state. The CA Dems did not endorse their incumbent here. Signs point to Rubio having to beat out GOP Daniel Martinez to get to November, but that poll was in December)

-CA-45 (2 Dems are running to face Michelle Steel in November, Kim Bernice Nguyen-Penaloza and Derek Tran. Nguyen-Penalzona has a boatload of support within the state (LA Times, union locals, Dem Party, Porter, Jacobs, Sanchez etc.), but does not have the fundraising haul and poll support (one poll in November) to get past Tran. Tran has Lofgren, Takano, and Chu from within state and some PAC support himself.)

-CA-47 (Katie Porter's open seat. Signs point to GOP Scott Baugh running against Dem Dave Min in November. However, Min's position is less than certain. Min carries Porter's endorsement plus the entire elected California state offices minus Newsom, plus the Dem Party, and union locals. Did I forget the LA Times? So why is he not locked in. Well, Joanna Weiss carried some of the congressional Dem delegation (Brownley, Harder, Kamiager-Dove, Swalwell), plus pro-Israel PAC money, EMILY's List and other feminist PACs. Watch this for a upset from the middle.)

-NC-6 GOP (One of the new safe GOP seats created from NC's GOP gerrymander after 2022. Mark Walker, who left Congress to fall to Ted Budd in the Senate primary last year is looking for a comeback. Bo Hines himself is looking for one after losing the 13th in 2022 to Wiley Nickel. The prior nominee for this district Christian Castelli is still fundraising well despite having no realistic chance to win based on the one poll taken in December. All this to mention that Trump endorsed Addison McDowell, but with no one following through after. Could be Trump's first primary endorsement loss of the cycle.)

-NC-8 GOP (Dan Bishop's open seat. This contest is likely between John Bradford (state rep who dropped down from the Treasuer's race), and Mark Harris (who won the voided election in 2018 because of GOP operatives committing fraud). Harris has the backing of very-likely NC Gov nominee Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, while Bradford has the backing of the NRA and Chamber of Commerce. Chris Maples, a former district director for Bishop could play spoiler, with the effect of the Charlotte Observer endorsement. No polling has been done)

-NC-10 GOP (Patrick McHenry's open seat. Pat Harrigan moves over from the 14th where in lost to Jeff Jackson in 2022. He has Robinson's endorsement plus Americans for Prosperity. State Rep. Grey Mills has the backing of state House Speaker Tim Moore. Both have decent fundrasing compared to each other. No polling has been done on the race.)

-NC-13 GOP (Another new safe GOP seat post 2022 with Dem incumbment Wiley Nickel not running in the seat. Kelly Daughtry, who came 3rd in the primary last time leads the fundraising pack now (most self-funded). The Freedom Caucus is backing Fred Von Canon here.)

-TX-SEN Dem (Expect Collin Allred to win, but not by the slam-dunk the national media is pushing. He does have the backing level of a moderate presumptive nominee, but State Sen. Roland Gutierrez has backing from the left, the Austin Chronicle, and Garcia. Their is a low chance this could be a runoff.)

-TX-7 Dem (Lizzie Fletcher could have been in more trouble here, but I expect her to get past Pervez Agwan easily following sexual harassment allegations against him. Minnesota AG Keith Ellison and Houston Sunrise Movement is still backing Agwan post-allegations while Houston DSA pulled out)

-TX-12 GOP (Kay Granger's open seat. Craig Goldman should sail through with him being the Majority Leader in the Texas House and support from Gov. Greg Abbott, the mayor of Fort Worth, and both DFW papers for the primary. Only mentioning this because will be a test at how much Texas AG Ken Paxton has pull with the party's base backing John O'Shea)

-TX-18 Dem (Sheila Jackson Lee could be in serious trouble, and is the most likely Member of Congress to lose their primary to a challenger on the night. Jackson Lee's failed run for Houston mayor opened her up to opposition from former Houston city councilor Amanda Edwards. Jackson Lee maintains union support from the state level and the Houston Chronicle's backing, but Edwards has Beto O'Rourke backing her, is outraising Jackson Lee, and the one poll shows the race within 5 points.)

-TX-23 GOP (If this was a year eariler, Tony Gonzales would have joined Jackson Lee in the serious trouble category. He was censured by the Texas GOP for voting for the bipartisan gun bill last year, and was getting pushed for his immgration positions. However, no real opposition candidate who could command support of the national right materalized. Brandon Herrera is backed by Kyle Rittenhouse, and Victor Avila is backed by former ICE Director Thomas Homan, and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.)

-TX-26 GOP (Michael Burgess' open seat. Trump and the hard-right agree that Brandon Gill should win here. Southlake Mayor John Huffman carries the backing of Rick Perry and Rep. Beth Van Duyne. Scott Armey has former Sen. Phil Gramm's endorsement and the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Gill's fundraising is not good enough plus no polling in this contest leaves this contest on the list.)

-TX-32 Dem (Colin Allred's open seat. This is a straight fight between two moderates in State Rep. Julie Johnson and Brian Williams, who used to chair Dallas' Police Oversight Board. Johnson has O'Rourke, the AFT, Planned Parenthood, the Chamber of Commerce, and EMILY's List as her major backers. Chris Murphy, Seth Moulton, and Brady PAC is with Williams. Johnson and Williams are basically deadlocked fundraising wise. No polling here.)

-TX-34 GOP (Expect Mayra Flores to win here. She has the backing of Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson, McCarthy, and the NRA. Mauro Garza has a slight upset potential from the right with Arpaio's backing and only a slight fundraising disadvantage. No polling here.)

[kwabbit]

CA-22 will be one to watch. Democrats are running two strong candidates that may lead to them being shut out. Biden +13 district but incredibly racially polarized and Hispanic turnout is anemic so far in the early vote.

[Tekken_Guy]

CA-22 will be one to watch. Democrats are running two strong candidates that may lead to them being shut out. Biden +13 district but incredibly racially polarized and Hispanic turnout is anemic so far in the early vote.

Hurtado has almost no momentum so it’s highly unlikely Salas is locked out.

[Oryxslayer]

As noted by Kwabbit, CA-22 is one to watch just cause the order of the top finishers is not at all certain. Not just the party lineup, but whether the desired candidates will advance - more likely to potentially not occur on the GOP side than the Dems.

Runoff thresholds should also be noted. Automatically occurs at <50% in AL and TX. If nobody crosses 30% then there could (will) be one requested in NC. This will occur in AL-02, TX-32, TX-26, and probably NC-13 just cause of all the candidates. Possibly in TX-12, TX-18, TX-23, and TX-Sen.

In a similar way, if CA races for second place are close then things should and will remain uncalled for a while.

Also I guess maybe these seats deserve mention. CA-49 cause there is no clear GOP challenger in a potentially competitive seat, and the four challengers while self-funding lack clear distinctions. CA-34 cause of positioning in the eternal battle between Gomez and Kim. TX-03 if only cause of how unusual Self's path to congress was in 2022, and could leave an opening for surprises.

[2016]

I am more interested what impact Nikki Haley has Down Ballot.

Consensus was that if Haley stayed in the Race through Super Tuesday it would help House Members like Carl in AL.

[kwabbit]

CA-22 will be one to watch. Democrats are running two strong candidates that may lead to them being shut out. Biden +13 district but incredibly racially polarized and Hispanic turnout is anemic so far in the early vote.

Hurtado has almost no momentum so it’s highly unlikely Salas is locked out.

I don’t believe there’s been any public polling however. A few doomer articles have been written about it, presumably after some frightening internals, but DNC has dumped money in.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TX-SEN is worth viewing...does Allred win without a runoff?
TX-32 also has a big primary field though Julie Johnson is seemingly leading over Brian Williams.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

-CA-31 (Incumbent Gil Cisneros is not strong at all right now, and signs point to this race being who finishes second from the Dems to give him a run for his money in November. State Sen. Bob Archuleta has carries the backing of Grace Napolitano, State Treasurer Fiona Ma, and some union locals. Susan Rubio is backed by both teacher's unions in the state. The CA Dems did not endorse their incumbent here. Signs point to Rubio having to beat out GOP Daniel Martinez to get to November, but that poll was in December)

Good analysis. One note here: Gil Cisneros is not the incumbent. He lost to Young Kim in 2020 in a district that was a bit south of the one he's running in now.

Also, it disgusts me to see just how many new GOP seats there are in North Carolina. Truly, truly evil. Rooting for Mark Walker because I would hate to see Bo Hines in Congress.

[Annatar]

A question on CA, I've seen people claim the 2 party share of the vote each party gets has some predictive power in terms of how the election will go in November. That Republicans generally improve from the primary to the general in terms of the vote so any seat democrats don't win over 50% in the primary will likely vote Republican in the general. How true is this?

[Minnesota Mike]

A question on CA, I've seen people claim the 2 party share of the vote each party gets has some predictive power in terms of how the election will go in November. That Republicans generally improve from the primary to the general in terms of the vote so any seat democrats don't win over 50% in the primary will likely vote Republican in the general. How true is this?

I agree about some predictive power, Nov results are usually in the ballpark of the party primary vote, but it's actually Republicans who never win unless they get the most votes in the primary. IIRC since Top 2 was instituted in 2012 no Republican has won a congressional race where their party did not get the most votes in the primary. There are not a lot of cases of the opposite either but it has happened.

[Oryxslayer]

A question on CA, I've seen people claim the 2 party share of the vote each party gets has some predictive power in terms of how the election will go in November. That Republicans generally improve from the primary to the general in terms of the vote so any seat democrats don't win over 50% in the primary will likely vote Republican in the general. How true is this?

I agree about some predictive power, Nov results are usually in the ballpark of the party primary vote, but it's actually Republicans who never win unless they get the most votes in the primary. IIRC since Top 2 was instituted in 2012 no Republican has won a congressional race where their party did not get the most votes in the primary. There are not a lot of cases of the opposite either but it has happened.

And in general,  I would say this matters less when there are other races influencing the electorate,  like the presidential contests of 2016, 20, and now 24. There's a reason why the later and disconnected  Washington top two primary is held up as an indicator in the laste decade, and CAs is not.

[Spectator]

I know this is the Congressional thread, but North Carolina has a number of good statewide primaries to watch.

North Carolina Lieutenant Governor (R) has one or two strong Republican candidates, Forsyth DA Jim O'Neill coming to mind. He almost beat Stein in the 2020 AG race despite Stein being a non-controversial incumbent. He was re-elected in 2022 to his DA spot in a deep blue county. State Sen. Rachel Hunt (D) is the likely Dem nominee and should be strong in her own right. She could beat one of the weaker/less-funded Republicans in the general election.

North Carolina Attorney General (D) is one to watch simply because Republicans are meddling to prop up Durham DA Satana Deberry (D). Jeff Jackson (D) should still be a pretty heavy favorite regardless, but Republicans would obviously prefer to face Deberry.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

In AR-03 Steve Womack is being challenged by a State Senator. Of course Womack has a massive fundraising advantage but from what I've been told, Penzo has strong grassroots support and itl be a close primary.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I'm also keeping a close eye on Texas legislative primaries, where Greg Abbott, Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton are targeting many incumbents. It has a chance to become a bloodbath.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Poll closing times: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/super-tuesday-polls-open-close-2024/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's Schiff v Garvey race

[Tekken_Guy]

In AR-03 Steve Womack is being challenged by a State Senator. Of course Womack has a massive fundraising advantage but from what I've been told, Penzo has strong grassroots support and itl be a close primary.

Womack is not losing.

[ClassicElectionEnthusiast]

Had an interesting down-ballot Super Tuesday primary near me (edited since learning the Virginia Super Tuesday primary is only for the Presidency)

NC-1 (which I'm covered in following redistricting): If this wasn't a relatively rural district, we'd probably hear more talk about the fighting in the GOP primary between Sandy Smith (who lost the last time to Don Davis) and Laurie Buckhout, with Smith has been running nothing but attack ads against Buckhout (such as charging Buckhout with taking money from a George Soros-affiliated PAC) while I haven't seen anything on Buckhout responding (most of her ads have been rather rambling "biographical" spots). There's a good chance whoever wins on the GOP side might be seriously if not mortally wounded in a political sense.

[Tekken_Guy]

Had a couple more down-ballot Super Tuesday primaries of interest

NC-1 (which I'm covered in following redistricting): If this wasn't a relatively rural district, we'd probably hear more talk about the fighting in the GOP primary between Sandy Smith (who lost the last time to Don Davis) and Laurie Buckhout, with Smith has been running nothing but attack ads against Buckhout (such as charging Buckhout with taking money from a George Soros-affiliated PAC) while I haven't seen anything on Buckhout responding (most of her ads have been rather rambling "biographical" spots). There's a good chance whoever wins on the GOP side might be seriously if not mortally wounded in a political sense.

VA-7: With Abigail Spanberger giving up the seat to prepare for a gubernatorial run; several interesting candidates have entered the race such as Democrats Eugene Vindman (twin brother of Lt. Col. Alex of the Trump-Ukraine hearings notoriety, endorsed by Adam Schiff) and Prince William County supervisor Andrea Bailey (endorsed by former Gov. Ralph Northam); while the GOP field includes retired Navy SEAL Cameron Hamilton (endorsed by Rand Paul) and the nominee the last time, retired Green Beret Derrick Anderson (endorsed by the likes of Speaker Mike Johnson and Tom Cotton among others).

VA-7 is not for several more months. Also Derrick Anderson was runner up in the primary last time to Yesli Vega.

[Oryxslayer]

Yes, no Virginia, but it's still a rather interesting set of states up today. Only 5 states holding primaries below the presidential option - AR, AL, CA, NC, and TX. However between them over 1/4 of all congressional primaries will be decided this early.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yes, no Virginia, but it's still a rather interesting set of states up today. Only 5 states holding primaries below the presidential option - AR, AL, CA, NC, and TX. However between them over 1/4 of all congressional primaries will be decided this early.

Especially since three of these states are always political heavyweights when it comes to downballot action.

[Spectator]

Had a couple more down-ballot Super Tuesday primaries of interest

NC-1 (which I'm covered in following redistricting): If this wasn't a relatively rural district, we'd probably hear more talk about the fighting in the GOP primary between Sandy Smith (who lost the last time to Don Davis) and Laurie Buckhout, with Smith has been running nothing but attack ads against Buckhout (such as charging Buckhout with taking money from a George Soros-affiliated PAC) while I haven't seen anything on Buckhout responding (most of her ads have been rather rambling "biographical" spots). There's a good chance whoever wins on the GOP side might be seriously if not mortally wounded in a political sense.

VA-7: With Abigail Spanberger giving up the seat to prepare for a gubernatorial run; several interesting candidates have entered the race such as Democrats Eugene Vindman (twin brother of Lt. Col. Alex of the Trump-Ukraine hearings notoriety, endorsed by Adam Schiff) and Prince William County supervisor Andrea Bailey (endorsed by former Gov. Ralph Northam); while the GOP field includes retired Navy SEAL Cameron Hamilton (endorsed by Rand Paul) and the nominee the last time, retired Green Beret Derrick Anderson (endorsed by the likes of Speaker Mike Johnson and Tom Cotton among others).

NC-1 will be interesting. Smith underperformed Budd by almost 5 points last year. Davis needs that or more to probably win again this year if the district swings towards Trump like it’s expected to.

[Tekken_Guy]

Had a couple more down-ballot Super Tuesday primaries of interest

NC-1 (which I'm covered in following redistricting): If this wasn't a relatively rural district, we'd probably hear more talk about the fighting in the GOP primary between Sandy Smith (who lost the last time to Don Davis) and Laurie Buckhout, with Smith has been running nothing but attack ads against Buckhout (such as charging Buckhout with taking money from a George Soros-affiliated PAC) while I haven't seen anything on Buckhout responding (most of her ads have been rather rambling "biographical" spots). There's a good chance whoever wins on the GOP side might be seriously if not mortally wounded in a political sense.

VA-7: With Abigail Spanberger giving up the seat to prepare for a gubernatorial run; several interesting candidates have entered the race such as Democrats Eugene Vindman (twin brother of Lt. Col. Alex of the Trump-Ukraine hearings notoriety, endorsed by Adam Schiff) and Prince William County supervisor Andrea Bailey (endorsed by former Gov. Ralph Northam); while the GOP field includes retired Navy SEAL Cameron Hamilton (endorsed by Rand Paul) and the nominee the last time, retired Green Beret Derrick Anderson (endorsed by the likes of Speaker Mike Johnson and Tom Cotton among others).

NC-1 will be interesting. Smith underperformed Budd by almost 5 points last year. Davis needs that or more to probably win again this year if the district swings towards Trump like it’s expected to.

A lot of it depends on how well Trump does atop the ticket. Is he on track to replicate Budd’s margin or will it look more like his 2020 performance?

[Spectator]

Had a couple more down-ballot Super Tuesday primaries of interest

NC-1 (which I'm covered in following redistricting): If this wasn't a relatively rural district, we'd probably hear more talk about the fighting in the GOP primary between Sandy Smith (who lost the last time to Don Davis) and Laurie Buckhout, with Smith has been running nothing but attack ads against Buckhout (such as charging Buckhout with taking money from a George Soros-affiliated PAC) while I haven't seen anything on Buckhout responding (most of her ads have been rather rambling "biographical" spots). There's a good chance whoever wins on the GOP side might be seriously if not mortally wounded in a political sense.

VA-7: With Abigail Spanberger giving up the seat to prepare for a gubernatorial run; several interesting candidates have entered the race such as Democrats Eugene Vindman (twin brother of Lt. Col. Alex of the Trump-Ukraine hearings notoriety, endorsed by Adam Schiff) and Prince William County supervisor Andrea Bailey (endorsed by former Gov. Ralph Northam); while the GOP field includes retired Navy SEAL Cameron Hamilton (endorsed by Rand Paul) and the nominee the last time, retired Green Beret Derrick Anderson (endorsed by the likes of Speaker Mike Johnson and Tom Cotton among others).

NC-1 will be interesting. Smith underperformed Budd by almost 5 points last year. Davis needs that or more to probably win again this year if the district swings towards Trump like it’s expected to.

A lot of it depends on how well Trump does atop the ticket. Is he on track to replicate Budd’s margin or will it look more like his 2020 performance?

Somewhere in between like a Trump +4 or 5 win is what I'd expect.

[Tekken_Guy]

Had a couple more down-ballot Super Tuesday primaries of interest

NC-1 (which I'm covered in following redistricting): If this wasn't a relatively rural district, we'd probably hear more talk about the fighting in the GOP primary between Sandy Smith (who lost the last time to Don Davis) and Laurie Buckhout, with Smith has been running nothing but attack ads against Buckhout (such as charging Buckhout with taking money from a George Soros-affiliated PAC) while I haven't seen anything on Buckhout responding (most of her ads have been rather rambling "biographical" spots). There's a good chance whoever wins on the GOP side might be seriously if not mortally wounded in a political sense.

VA-7: With Abigail Spanberger giving up the seat to prepare for a gubernatorial run; several interesting candidates have entered the race such as Democrats Eugene Vindman (twin brother of Lt. Col. Alex of the Trump-Ukraine hearings notoriety, endorsed by Adam Schiff) and Prince William County supervisor Andrea Bailey (endorsed by former Gov. Ralph Northam); while the GOP field includes retired Navy SEAL Cameron Hamilton (endorsed by Rand Paul) and the nominee the last time, retired Green Beret Derrick Anderson (endorsed by the likes of Speaker Mike Johnson and Tom Cotton among others).

NC-1 will be interesting. Smith underperformed Budd by almost 5 points last year. Davis needs that or more to probably win again this year if the district swings towards Trump like it’s expected to.

A lot of it depends on how well Trump does atop the ticket. Is he on track to replicate Budd’s margin or will it look more like his 2020 performance?

Somewhere in between like a Trump +4 or 5 win is what I'd expect.

Is that for the state or the district?